Jay Agrawal
Mortgage Loan Originator

Incidental Weakness. Bigger Considerations on The Horizon

Incidental Weakness. Bigger Considerations on The Horizon

Without any data or compelling market movers, bonds came into the day light on inspiration. Low volume/liquidity left the door open for any determined traders to have a bigger-than-normal influence on the market. That arguably happened between 9am and 10:30am ET with both stocks and bonds losing ground simultaneously. This coincided perfectly with an uptick in Fed rate hike expectations seen via near-term Fed Funds Futures.

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Incidental Weakness. Bigger Considerations on The Horizon

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5
99.23
+0.10 
10YR TREASURY
4.705
-0.027 
8/24/2026 2:49AM EST
Prices haven't changed much from the time of the first alert, but MBS have spent more time pushing the lows of the day. Treasuries are also suggesting a bit of extra weakness.  5.5 UMBS are now down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and versus many lenders' morning rate sheet print times. This makes negative reprices slightly more possible than they were a few hours ago.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.77%
+0.01% 
15YR Fixed
6.61%
+0.31% 
8/21/2026
For all practical purposes, Friday's mortgage rates were unchanged versus Thursday's, but if we're splitting hairs, the average lender rose 0.01% to 6.77% for a top tier 30yr fixed.  While many news outlets continue focusing on the mid-week announcement regarding Treasury's bond buyback program, today's bond market volatility was unrelated. Current levels are close to where they were before Wednesday's announcement and that makes sense to anyone who Wednesday's marke...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Aug 24
2:00PM Treasury Secretary Bessent Speech (%)
Tuesday, Aug 25
8:00AM Jul Building Permits (ml) Jul 1.443M 1.374M
8:00AM Fed Barkin Speech
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 9.5K
9:00AM Jun FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) Jun 0.2% 0.3%
9:00AM Jun FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) Jun 2.2%
9:00AM Jun Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) Jun 1.7% 1.6%
9:00AM Jun CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) Jun 0.9%
10:00AM Jul New Home Sales (ml) Jul 0.62M 0.628M
10:00AM Jul New Home Sales (%) (%) Jul 1.6%
10:00AM Aug CB Consumer Confidence (%) Aug 91.2 90.8
11:30AM 6-Week Bill Auction (%) 3.645%
1:00PM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 69
4:00PM Fed Barkin Speech
Jay Agrawal
Mortgage Loan Originator