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Month-End Trading Taking a Toll
Month-End Trading Taking a Toll
Bonds were actually a hair stronger at the open, but quickly tanked just after 8am. The nature of said tankage is strongly suggestive of month-end positioning. While it's true oil prices are higher than Friday, the spike in bond yields didn't correlate in a manner typically consistent with oil being the driver. Also, there is a relatively sharp move underway in the yield curve (i.e. 2yr yields remain unchanged while 10yr yields are 5+ bps higher). Heavy curve trading in the absence of obvious catalysts and related market correlation all but confirm "month-end trading" (unless there's a huge corporate bond announcement that we missed).
Hawkish Read on Warsh Prompts Heavy Selling
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Aug 31 | |||||
| Tuesday, Sep 01 | |||||
| 9:05AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 9:45AM | Aug S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Aug | 53.2 | 53.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Aug ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Aug | 72 | 71.1 | |
| 10:00AM | Aug ISM Manufacturing PMI | Aug | 55.2 | 55.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Aug ISM Manufacturing Employment | Aug | 52.8 | ||
| 10:00AM | Jul USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Jul | 7.3M | 7.359M | |
| 10:00AM | Sep IBD economic optimism | Sep | 46.2 | 45.1 | |
| 10:00AM | Jul Construction spending (%) | Jul | 0% | -0.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Jul JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Jul | 3.232M | ||
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.650% | |||
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