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Technically a Breakout, But It Could Have Been Worse
Technically a Breakout, But It Could Have Been Worse
10yr yields closed just under 4.74 at the end of July and just over 4.75% today. That's the highest close since January 2025 which, at first glance, sounds pretty gloomy. But it's worth noting that several days have ended just a bp or two below today's levels. In other words, it was ultimately a small, incremental bump. Perhaps more importantly, it was not-at-all out of character with respect to the prevailing trend.
Technically a breakout, but it could have been worse
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Sep 01 | |||||
| 9:05AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 9:45AM | Aug S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Aug | 53.2 | 53.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Aug ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Aug | 72 | 71.1 | |
| 10:00AM | Aug ISM Manufacturing PMI | Aug | 55.2 | 55.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Aug ISM Manufacturing Employment | Aug | 52.8 | ||
| 10:00AM | Jul USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Jul | 7.3M | 7.359M | |
| 10:00AM | Sep IBD economic optimism | Sep | 46.2 | 45.1 | |
| 10:00AM | Jul Construction spending (%) | Jul | 0% | -0.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Jul JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Jul | 3.232M | ||
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.650% | |||
| Wednesday, Sep 02 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Aug/28 Mortgage Market Index | Aug/28 | 245.3 | ||
| 7:00AM | Aug/28 MBA Purchase Index | Aug/28 | 154.4 | ||
| 7:00AM | Aug/28 MBA Refi Index | Aug/28 | 740.8 | ||
| 8:15AM | Aug ADP jobs (k) | Aug | 47K | 44K | |
| 10:00AM | Jul Factory orders mm (%) | Jul | 0.6% | -0.3% | |
| 10:30AM | Aug/28 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Aug/28 | 0.095M | ||
| 2:00PM | Aug Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Aug | 16.3M | 16.3M | |
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
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