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More War. More Selling

Tuesday, September 1, 2026

More War. More Selling

Tuesday was as straightforward as it was unpleasant for the bond market. Mid-day news regarding new air strikes in Iran caused an immediate reaction in oil prices. This was more than enough to reverse the rally that followed this morning's 10am ET economic data. Oil prices hit the highest level since late July and bond yields matched the highest closing levels since January 2025.

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More War. More Selling

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5
98.69
-0.32 
10YR TREASURY
4.796
+0.043 
9/1/2026 3:49PM EST
MBS Alert: Negative Reprice Risk Increasing
Negative reprices aren't necessarily guaranteed, but they're a slightly higher risk now as MBS just hit new lows for the day. Some lenders are seeing an eighth of a point of weakness versus morning rate sheet print times. That said, the earliest lenders are only seeing 2 ticks (.06) of weakness and thus not at risk of repricing.    READ MORE
Alert:
MBS Down an Eighth From Highs After War Headlines
MBS Morning:
Selling Continues And It's Not Just Oil
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.89%
+0.02% 
15YR Fixed
6.39%
+0.01% 
9/1/2026
Mortgage Rates Pushing New Long-Term Highs
Fighting intensified today between the U.S. and Iran. Oil prices moved higher fairly quickly and bond yields followed. This has been a common pattern during the Iran war as higher oil prices imply higher inflation which, in turn, implies higher yields/rates. Yesterday's average top-tier 30yr fixed rate hit the highest levels since June 2025. Today's increase was modest in the bigger picture. At 6.89%, we're still well below that June 2025 high of 6.97%.  [thirtyyearmo...   READ MORE
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Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Sep 01
9:05AM Fed Barr Speech
9:45AM Aug S&P Global Manuf. PMI Aug 53.9 53.2 53.9
10:00AM Aug ISM Mfg Prices Paid Aug 71.1 72 71.1
10:00AM Aug ISM Manufacturing PMI Aug 54.6 55.2 55.6
10:00AM Aug ISM Manufacturing Employment Aug 51.2 52.8
10:00AM Jul USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) Jul 7.271M 7.3M 7.359M
10:00AM Jul Construction spending (%) Jul -0.5% 0% -0.1%
10:00AM Jul JOLTs Job Quits (ml) Jul 3.056M 3.232M
10:10AM Sep IBD economic optimism Sep 45.6 46.2 45.1
11:30AM 6-Week Bill Auction (%) 3.735% 3.650%
6:00PM Aug Total Vehicle Sales (ml) Aug 16.8M 16.3M 16.3M
Wednesday, Sep 02
7:00AM Aug/28 Mortgage Market Index Aug/28 245.3
7:00AM Aug/28 MBA Purchase Index Aug/28 154.4
7:00AM Aug/28 MBA Refi Index Aug/28 740.8
8:15AM Aug ADP jobs (k) Aug 48K 44K
10:00AM Jul Factory orders mm (%) Jul 0.7% -0.3%
10:30AM Aug/28 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Aug/28 0.095M
2:00PM Fed Beige Book
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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.