Still a Resilient Day Despite Afternoon Weakness

Still a Resilient Day Despite Afternoon Weakness

The day's most notable development, by far, was the speech from Fed Governor Waller in which he said the Fed probably didn't need to hike at the upcoming meeting (depending on data, of course). Fed Funds Futures reacted immediately and mostly held those gains all day. The longer end of the curve ended up giving back most of the initial gains, albeit very gradually. The net effect is that we're still in "wait and see" mode--but a slightly less painful version--ahead of Friday's jobs report and next week's inflation data.

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Still a Resilient Day Despite Afternoon Weakness

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5
98.95
-0.01 
10YR TREASURY
4.766
-0.002 
9/3/2026 11:04PM EST
Just a heads up for those who already had a positive reprice or who are planning on locking today: MBS are still an eighth of a point higher on the day, but down an eighth from the mid-day highs (also down an eighth from the early lenders' rate sheet print times). Negative reprices are relatively rare in these scenarios, but they can and do happen occasionally.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.88%
-0.03% 
15YR Fixed
6.48%
-0.02% 
9/3/2026
Mortgage rates finally had a decent day on Thursday after spending the previous three days inching into the highest levels in more than a year. Part of the improvement was due to comments from Fed Governor Chris Waller who said that it wouldn't be necessary to hike rates at the next meeting unless inflation data surprises to the upside. Before that, the underlying bond market was already showing some resilience in overnight trading. The prevailing pattern has been a fairly...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Sep 04
8:30AM Aug Average earnings mm (%) Aug 0.3% 0.1%
8:30AM Aug Non Farm Payrolls (k) Aug 56K -23K
8:30AM Aug Unemployment rate mm (%) Aug 4.1% 4.1%
8:30AM Aug Participation Rate Aug 61.4%
Monday, Sep 07
12:00AM Labor Day