Yields Launch Higher After Balmy NFP

Yields Launch Higher After Balmy NFP

The jobs count surged higher (162k vs 56k f'cast) in this morning's jobs report. While such wild divergences will have the masses crying foul, and while this is a large beat, it's not the first time that the headline job count has been this far off forecasts. This is especially understandable amid recent volatility in labor force composition. One minor saving grace is the steady unemployment rate, but unfortunately, the participation rate increased by 0.2%, which means the unemployment rate would have fallen 0.1-0.2 (depending on rounding) all else equal. Bonds weakened immediately on the news but 10yr yields are currently only 2.8 bps higher on the day.

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Still a Resilient Day Despite Afternoon Weakness

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5
98.96
+0.01 
10YR TREASURY
4.763
-0.005 
9/4/2026 12:54PM EST
The jobs count surged higher (162k vs 56k f'cast) in this morning's jobs report. While such wild divergences will have the masses crying foul, and while this is a large beat, it's not the first time that the headline job count has been this far off forecasts. This is especially understandable amid recent volatility in labor force composition. One minor saving grace is the steady unemployment rate, but unfortunately, the participation rate increased by 0.2%, which means the un...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.89%
+0.01% 
15YR Fixed
6.49%
+0.01% 
9/4/2026
Mortgage rates have a long and storied past with the monthly jobs report. Officially titled "The Employment Situation," the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) jobs report has more power than any other monthly economic report to cause volatility in the rate market over the years. It may have lost some of that capability over the past few years, but it's always worthy of respect. With that in mind, it was an ominous sign for rates when this morning's jobs data came in MUCH st...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Sep 04
8:30AM Aug Average earnings mm (%) Aug 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
8:30AM Aug Non Farm Payrolls (k) Aug 162K 56K -23K
8:30AM Aug Unemployment rate mm (%) Aug 4.1% 4.1% 4.1%
8:30AM Aug Participation Rate Aug 61.6% 61.4%
Monday, Sep 07
12:00AM Labor Day