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Ugly Snowball Selling Thanks to Oil and Inflation Data
Ugly Snowball Selling Thanks to Oil and Inflation Data
MBS lost nearly a full point by 4pm ET and 10yr yields were up 11.4bps at 4.95%. This is the highest since October 2023 when 10s briefly hit 5.006%. At one point in the overnight session, yields were slightly LOWER on the day. Things changed in waves. First wave: oil prices surged overnight and had already broken $100 but the time PPI came out. Second wave: PPI was roughly in line with forecasts, but internal components suggested a 0.1 increase to core PCE inflation. The reaction was the sharpest of the day for bonds. Third wave: late day illiquid redistribution after 30yr bond auction (although this could also be incidental drift ahead of Friday's CPI data). If we could only focus on 2 things, it would be the acceleration in the fuel price trend and the unfriendly PCE implications in today's PPI data.
Ugly Snowball Selling
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Sep 10 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Aug/29 Continued Claims (k) | Aug/29 | 1774K | 1780K | 1779K |
| 8:30AM | Sep/05 Jobless Claims (k) | Sep/05 | 206K | 205K | 206K |
| 8:30AM | Aug Core PPI m/m (%) | Aug | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Aug Core PPI y/y (%) | Aug | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% |
| 8:30AM | Aug PPI y/y | Aug | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% |
| 8:30AM | Aug PPI m/m (%) | Aug | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0% |
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months (%) | $2.122 billion | |||
| 10:00AM | Aug Existing home sales (ml) | Aug | 3.98M | 3.98M | 4.06M |
| 10:00AM | Aug Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Aug | -2% | -1.7% | |
| 12:00PM | Sep/04 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Sep/04 | -0.391M | -1.6M | -4.45M |
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 22 | |||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 5.308% | 5.216% | ||
| Friday, Sep 11 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | Aug y/y Headline CPI (%) | Aug | 3.4% | 3.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug m/m CORE CPI (%) | Aug | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug m/m Headline CPI (%) | Aug | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug y/y CORE CPI (%) | Aug | 2.4% | 2.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Sep | 51 | 51.7 | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Sep | 4% | ||
| 10:00AM | Sep Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Sep | 3.3% | ||
| 10:00AM | Sep U Mich conditions | Sep | 51.3 | 51.9 | |
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 2:00PM | Aug Federal budget (bl) | Aug | $-404B | $-432B | |
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