AM Rally Completely Erased By The Close
AM Rally Completely Erased By The Close
This morning's paradoxical rally lasted 30 whole minutes. Bonds turned around at exactly 9am and proceeded to completely erase the AM gains. There were no compelling macro motivations for the reversal apart from a modest rise in oil prices. While oil price lows and highs perfectly matched bond yields in terms of timing, the bond selling was disproportionately larger. This is highly suggestive of short covering being a component of the morning rally. In other words, traders who had open bets on higher rates simply closed those positions quickly this morning. From that point on, the market was free to trade as it pleased. 2yr/10yr spreads remained mostly flat which suggests broad selling across the curve and no change in the paradoxical sentiment component of the AM rally. Bottom line: there were two rally motivations this morning, and one of them left the bond market open to correction.
Ugly Snowball Selling
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Sep 11 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | Aug y/y Headline CPI (%) | Aug | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| 8:30AM | Aug m/m CORE CPI (%) | Aug | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Aug m/m Headline CPI (%) | Aug | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Aug y/y CORE CPI (%) | Aug | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% |
| 10:00AM | Sep Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Sep | 47.8 | 51 | 51.7 |
| 10:00AM | Sep Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Sep | 4.6% | 4% | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Sep | 3.4% | 3.3% | |
| 10:00AM | Sep U Mich conditions | Sep | 50.9 | 51.3 | 51.9 |
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 2:00PM | Aug Federal budget (bl) | Aug | $-167B | $-404B | $-432B |
| Monday, Sep 14 | |||||
