Decent Mid-Day Recovery But No Change to Bigger Picture

Monday wasn't too different from last Friday in that the bond market began the day with AM volatility that gave way to minimally changed yields by the close. The order was reversed, however, with the weaker trading in the AM and rally back to unchanged levels for the close. Another key difference was that the mid-day rally was clearly drew inspiration from measurable events (in this case, war-related newswires that helped oil prices recover most of the morning's increase. Shorter-dated yields underperformed as there was no meaningful improvement in Fed Funds Futures. In fact, rate hike odds increased ever-so-slightly as the day progressed. In the bigger picture, today and Friday speak to a leveling-off of negative momentum in the recent snowball selling trend. Unfortunately, this could be as simple as a circling of the wagons ahead of Wednesday's Fed announcement which is just as likely to cause another bearish breakout as it is to reinforce the technical ceiling.