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An Uncommonly Interesting Fed Day
An Uncommonly Interesting Fed Day
There are perhaps no other Fed announcements in recent memory worthy of more anticipation than the one we'll get today. While some of the recent data could be used to argue patience, far more data suggests a hike. The market agrees based on recent moves in yields and Fed Funds Futures. The question remains as to whether Warsh has a firm conviction in one direction or another. The meeting is interesting because we're about to find out. Bonds are off to a stronger start, building on yesterday's technical support, but also possibly benefiting from lower oil prices overnight. Nevertheless, we don't really feel that the trading day begins until 2pm ET anyway.
Some Signs of Resilience
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Sep 16 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Sep/11 MBA Refi Index | Sep/11 | 627.1 | 687.3 | |
| 7:00AM | Sep/11 MBA Purchase Index | Sep/11 | 156.2 | 157.5 | |
| 7:00AM | Sep/11 Mortgage Market Index | Sep/11 | 230.8 | 240.6 | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Import prices mm (%) | Aug | 0.7% | 0.4% | -0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Aug Retail Sales (%) | Aug | 1.2% | 0.8% | -0.6% |
| 8:30AM | Aug Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Aug | 1.4% | 0.4% | -0.4% |
| 10:00AM | Jul Business Inventories (% ) | Jul | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0% |
| 10:00AM | Sep NAHB housing market indx | Sep | 32 | 34 | 35 |
| 10:30AM | Sep/11 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Sep/11 | -0.64M | -1.6M | -0.391M |
| 2:00PM | FOMC Economic Projections | ||||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr | 4.1% | 3.6% | ||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr | 3.9% | 3.4% | ||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Longer | 3.2% | 3.1% | ||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Current | 4.1% | 3.8% | ||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr | 3.6% | 3.1% | ||
| 2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4% | 4% | 3.75% | |
| 2:30PM | Warsh Press Conference | ||||
| Thursday, Sep 17 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Sep/05 Continued Claims (k) | Sep/05 | 1780K | 1774K | |
| 8:30AM | Sep/12 Jobless Claims (k) | Sep/12 | 208K | 206K | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Philly Fed Business Index | Sep | 30.5 | 47.4 | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Housing starts number mm (ml) | Aug | 1.31M | 1.239M | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Building Permits (ml) | Aug | 1.41M | 1.433M | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Philly Fed Prices Paid | Sep | 40.90 | ||
| 10:00AM | Aug Pending Home Sales (%) | Aug | 2% | -2.3% | |
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 19 | |||
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