Even More Confirmation Throughout The Day

It was heartening to see bonds erase yesterday's losses by the time domestic trading got underway today. Unmitigated victory would have required flat/higher oil prices. Instead, we were forced to wonder how much credit to give lower oil prices versus the expectation that longer-term rates would paradoxically appreciate a more hawkish Fed stance. This uncertainty increasingly vanished throughout the day. Oil prices steadily rose more than $3 between 8:30am and 1pm, but bonds were sideways to stronger the entire time. There's still some caution suggested by a technical floor at 4.94%, but yields are now flirting with a break below that level in after-hours trading (even as oil prices remain more than $2 higher than this morning). We're not out of the woods yet, but today looks to have been a step in the right direction. All this having been said, rates aren't immune from future spikes if econ data, issuance, or fuel prices surprise to the upside.