Bonds Bounce Back After Mid-Day Stumble

Bonds Bounce Back After Mid-Day Stumble

Bonds began the day in stronger territory following overnight reports of regarding a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Yields and oil prices moved steadily higher after that, ultimately rising into negative territory following Trump's UN speech. Subsequent newswires pushed back in the other direction. These involved claims of contact between the U.S. and the Iranian delegation on the sidelines of the UN general assembly as well as Trump comments regarding momentum toward a deal. None of the above was sweeping or definitive, but it was enough to bring oil prices back to session lows and for bonds to move back into positive territory. 

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Sideways and Slightly Stronger

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0
99.81
-0.03 
10YR TREASURY
4.974
+0.022 
9/22/2026 1:49PM EST
MBS are now down an eighth of a point from AM highs (but just barely weaker on the day). Jumpier lenders could already be considering negative reprices. Upward pressure in oil prices only explains some of the weakness (oil is still lower day-over-day).    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
7.17%
-0.02% 
15YR Fixed
6.83%
+0.00% 
9/22/2026
It was a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates to start the new week. The underlying bond market was slightly stronger. This suggests slightly lower interest rates . The average mortgage lender lowered top-tier 30yr fixed rates by 0.01% compared to Friday.  Underlying motivation for the bond market can mostly be attributed to lower oil prices, which have been a common source of intraday inspiration for better or worse. With today's drop, the average lender rema...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Sep 22
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 20K 16.25K
10:05AM Fed Williams Speech
10:20AM Fed Jefferson Speech
11:30AM 6-Week Bill Auction (%) 3.870% 3.850%
1:00PM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 69
1:00PM Fed Barkin Speech
8:00PM UN General Assembly (%)
Wednesday, Sep 23
7:00AM Sep/18 Mortgage Market Index Sep/18 230.8
7:00AM Sep/18 MBA Purchase Index Sep/18 156.2
7:00AM Sep/18 MBA Refi Index Sep/18 627.1
9:45AM Sep S&P Global Composite PMI Sep 56
9:45AM Sep S&P Global Manuf. PMI Sep 53.6 53.9
9:45AM Sep S&P Global Services PMI Sep 56 56.5
10:05AM Fed Barr Speech
10:30AM Sep/18 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Sep/18 -0.6M -0.64M
11:30AM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 28
11:30AM 2-Year FRN Auction (%) 0.055%
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 70
8:00PM President Trump and President Xi Summit (%)
8:00PM UN General Assembly (%)