More Mid-Morning Selling, But MBS Outperforming

More Mid-Morning Selling, But MBS Outperforming

10yr yields began the morning in slightly stronger territory, generally following a modest decline in oil prices overnight. That trend actually ran its course by 5am ET and yields began rising gradually at that time. Sellers picked up the pace after 10am (partly oil-related, but certainly also plenty of bond-specific selling pressure). Yields are now up a few bps on the day with the 10yr at 5.227 as of 10:45am. MBS, meanwhile are still just a hair stronger (though they've also lost ground at the same time as Treasuries). The outperformance has a lot to do with the yield curve today. Shorter term yields are still green, and MBS tend to trade less like a 10yr and more like a 5yr.  The rest of the day is anyone's guess. There's a lot of fear and uncertainty in the bond market this week. Next week's econ data is high-stakes, and the month/quarter-end trading environment adds extra potential volatility to the mix.

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MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0
98.55
+0.35 
10YR TREASURY
5.197
-0.004 
9/25/2026 2:04PM EST
"Iran-US Talks Enter Technical Stage, Al-Jazeera Journalist Reports – CBS" Oil prices dropped from 94 to under 92 almost instantly on that headline and 10yr yields are following, now down 3.4bps at 5.167. MBS are up nearly 3/8ths of a point and at the day's best levels.     READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
7.49%
+0.04% 
15YR Fixed
7.12%
+0.02% 
9/25/2026
Mortgage rates have risen more than half a point in 2 weeks. While that's certainly not the fastest jump we've seen, it is an extraordinarily uncommon pace--happening less than once per year on average (i.e. it only happened 3 times between 2010 and 2019). Today's increase was modest in the bigger picture, adding only 0.04% to yesterday's levels and leaving the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate still just a hair below 7.50%. This is roughly in line with the highs from early...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Sep 25
5:15AM Fed Williams Speech
8:30AM Aug Durable goods (%) Aug 0% -0.4% 1.1%
8:30AM Aug Core CapEx (%) Aug 1.6% 0.5% 0.2%
9:20AM Fed Schmid Speech
10:00AM Sep Consumer Sentiment (ip) Sep 48.1 47.6 51.7
10:00AM Sep U Mich conditions Sep 50.9 49.5 51.9
10:00AM Sep Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Sep 4.6% 4.6% 4%
10:00AM Sep Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Sep 3.4% 3.4% 3.3%
2:00PM Fed Hammack Speech
Monday, Sep 28
1:30PM Fed Barkin Speech