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Now Completely Shunning The Drop in Oil
Now Completely Shunning The Drop in Oil
Bonds were initially modestly stronger overnight, but mostly sideways in the bigger picture. Right at the 8:20am CME open, bond sellers were clearly waiting in line to sell. This is another small anecdote that potentially suggests month/quarter-end trading is contributing to this week's volatility. It could also be an ongoing defensive stance ahead of this week's high-stakes econ data (this morning's JOLTs being today's most pressing example, coming up at 10am ET). The weakness completely ignored a fairly substantial drop in oil prices. We'll see more about what's what after 10am.
Bond-Specific Weakness
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Sep 29 | |||||
| 9:00AM | Jul FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) | Jul | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0% |
| 9:00AM | Jul FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) | Jul | 2.6% | 2.3% | |
| 9:00AM | Jul CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) | Jul | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 9:00AM | Jul Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) | Jul | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% |
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $3.892 billion | |||
| 10:00AM | Aug JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Aug | 3.066M | 3.056M | |
| 10:00AM | Aug USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Aug | 7.079M | 7.23M | 7.271M |
| 10:00AM | Sep CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Sep | 81.9 | 89.2 | 89.4 |
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.970% | 3.870% | ||
| 1:00PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 1:30PM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| Wednesday, Sep 30 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Sep/25 MBA Purchase Index | Sep/25 | 154.9 | ||
| 7:00AM | Sep/25 Mortgage Market Index | Sep/25 | 227.3 | ||
| 7:00AM | Sep/25 MBA Refi Index | Sep/25 | 611.0 | ||
| 8:15AM | Sep ADP jobs (k) | Sep | 70K | 38K | |
| 8:30AM | Aug PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Aug | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Q2 GDP (%) | Q2 | 1.5% | 2.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Q2 Corporate profits (% ) | Q2 | 8.2% | 0.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Aug | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Q2 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q2 | 3.6% | 4.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Q2 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q2 | 5.3% | 4.6% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug PCE (y/y) (%) | Aug | 3.7% | 3.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Q2 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q2 | 2.2% | 1.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Aug | 3.3% | 3.3% | |
| 9:45AM | Sep Chicago PMI | Sep | 51.2 | 47.1 | |
| 10:30AM | Sep/25 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Sep/25 | 2.969M | ||
| 1:30PM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 5:10PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 6:00PM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
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