Just Another Bad Day For Bonds Without New Justification

Just Another Bad Day For Bonds Without New Justification

10yr yields hit another long-term high today, breaking above 5.30% briefly before settling just under 5.29%. There was a flash of hope after the 8:30am econ data, but that reversed fairly quickly. Reasons can be debated. Some would say today's broadly stronger econ data supported it while pointing out that the "beat" in PCE wasn't really news in light of the methodology changes. On that note, some might say methodology that drops core PCE by 0.361 (July vs July unrounded) means that Fed policy will be less aggressive in fighting inflation than it otherwise would have been. In that context, today's heavy underperformance in the long end of the curve actually makes good sense, but it's just an interesting theory to entertain. Month/Quarter-end compulsory trading could certainly be an ingredient, but there's no great way to confirm that until several days in the future. Either way, inbound econ data certainly matters on Thu/Fri and the radar perpetually awaits any big blips shaped like Iran war truces (or escalations).

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Just Another Bad Day For Bonds

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0
97.98
-0.21 
10YR TREASURY
5.290
+0.046 
9/30/2026 3:54PM EST
Bonds continue selling. 10yr up 4.4bps at 5.29. MBS down a quarter point on the day and roughly 3/8ths of a point from AM rate sheet times (for earlier lenders).  Most lenders are in reprice risk territory now (more than a few have already pulled the trigger).   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
7.60%
+0.02% 
15YR Fixed
7.22%
+0.02% 
9/30/2026
For a few moments this morning, it looked as if rates might buck the recent trend and recover a bit of ground today. The underlying bond market was fairly flat overnight and then managed to improve after this morning's PCE inflation data. But that improvement was short-lived.  Top tier 30yr fixed rates jumped to 7.60%. That's only 0.02% higher than yesterday, but yet another long-term high. As frustrating as it continues to be, there are no convenient scapegoats for ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Sep 30
7:00AM Sep/25 MBA Purchase Index Sep/25 148.2 154.9
7:00AM Sep/25 Mortgage Market Index Sep/25 213.6 227.3
7:00AM Sep/25 MBA Refi Index Sep/25 557.8 611.0
8:15AM Sep ADP jobs (k) Sep 90K 70K 38K
8:30AM Aug PCE prices (m/m) (%) Aug 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
8:30AM Q2 GDP (%) Q2 2.2% 1.5% 2.5%
8:30AM Q2 Corporate profits (% ) Q2 7.7% 8.2% 0.5%
8:30AM Aug Core PCE (m/m) (%) Aug 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
8:30AM Q2 Core PCE Prices QoQ Q2 3.3% 3.6% 4.4%
8:30AM Q2 PCE Prices (Q/Q) Q2 5% 5.3% 4.6%
8:30AM Aug PCE (y/y) (%) Aug 3.4% 3.7% 3.7%
8:30AM Q2 GDP Final Sales (%) Q2 2.8% 2.2% 1.9%
8:30AM Aug Core PCE (y/y) (%) Aug 3% 3.3% 3.3%
9:45AM Sep Chicago PMI Sep 58.8 51.2 47.1
10:30AM Sep/25 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Sep/25 0.922M -0.3M 2.969M
1:30PM Fed Barkin Speech
5:10PM Fed Goolsbee Speech
6:00PM Fed Kashkari Speech
Thursday, Oct 01
5:30AM Sep Challenger layoffs (k) Sep 52.881K
8:30AM Sep/19 Continued Claims (k) Sep/19 1730K 1719K
8:30AM Sep/26 Jobless Claims (k) Sep/26 200K 197K
9:05AM Fed Barkin Speech
9:05AM Fed Schmid Speech
9:05AM Fed Collins Speech
9:45AM Sep S&P Global Manuf. PMI Sep 57.0 53.9
10:00AM Sep ISM Manufacturing Employment Sep 51.2
10:00AM Sep ISM Mfg Prices Paid Sep 72.3 71.1
10:00AM Sep ISM Manufacturing PMI Sep 55 54.6
10:00AM Aug Construction spending (%) Aug 0% -0.5%
3:30PM Fed Williams Speech
6:45PM Fed Logan Speech