What Will it Take For Bonds to Recover?

What Will it Take For Bonds to Recover?

Another day, another sell-off without any satisfying explanations. To be fair, you could say bonds just traded the curve today with anything 3yrs or shorter rallying at the expense of the longer end of the curve. But for the mortgage market, <3yrs is too short-term to matter. Data and headlines did not line up well at all with the weakness, so take your pick from the general themes we've added to the daily lock/float considerations. At some point, yields will have moved high enough to motivate investors to buy bonds for investment purpose (as opposed to tactical or compulsory trading purposes). Until then, the trend is not your friend. 

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What Will it Take For a Recovery

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0
97.94
+0.10 
10YR TREASURY
5.271
-0.036 
10/6/2026 6:59AM EST
Bonds are at their weakest levels with 10yr yields up 5bps and MBS down more than a quarter point. Any lender out with rates before 10:30am ET is already seeing at least an eighth of a point of weakness. As such, the jumpier lenders could already be considering negative reprices.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
7.61%
+0.04% 
15YR Fixed
7.23%
+0.04% 
10/5/2026
The good news is that today's average top-tier 30yr fixed rate ended only 0.01% higher than last week's high (7.61 vs 7.60). If you are only interested in good news, have a great rest of your Monday and you're free to go. The rest of the news isn't terrible, but we we can't classify it as "good." Bonds lost ground today and, as has been the case on many recent occasions, there weren't any new, obvious scapegoats.  On a vast majority of days when rates make a move, th...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Oct 06
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 23.75K 20K
8:30AM Aug Trade Gap (bl) Aug -105.60B $-102B $-88.6B
10:00AM Oct IBD economic optimism Oct 44.5 45.6
12:00PM EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
1:00PM 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 58
Wednesday, Oct 07
7:00AM Oct/02 Mortgage Market Index Oct/02 213.6
7:00AM Oct/02 MBA Refi Index Oct/02 557.8
7:00AM Oct/02 MBA Purchase Index Oct/02 148.2
10:30AM Oct/02 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Oct/02 0.922M
11:00AM Sep Consumer Inflation Expectations Sep 3.6%
1:00PM 10-yr Note Auction (bl) 39
2:00PM FOMC Minutes
3:00PM Aug Consumer credit (bl) Aug $15B $18.06B