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Overnight Adaptive Cruise, Following Oil
Overnight Adaptive Cruise, Following Oil
If rate movement were a car, it's been driving pretty recklessly recently, and definitely not keeping good pace with other motorists. But every now and then, we see a break in the craziness. The overnight trading session provided an example. The bond car set its adaptive cruise control to follow the car in front of it (oil prices, in today's case). That's left us just a bit stronger to start, but it's not an inspiring reversal so much as a coincidental mini-correction. 10yr yields unfortunately seem to be hitting resistance at 5.26%, but oil bounced at the same time, and we're not really in love with technicals these days. This afternoon's 3yr Treasury auction has a small chance of being mildly interesting (emphasis on small/mild). Bottom line: adrift and waiting for the next big move.
What Will it Take For a Recovery
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Oct 06 | |||||
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 23.75K | 20K | ||
| 8:30AM | Aug Trade Gap (bl) | Aug | $-105.6B | $-102B | $-88.6B |
| 10:00AM | Oct IBD economic optimism | Oct | 46.8 | 44.5 | 45.6 |
| 12:00PM | EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook | ||||
| 1:00PM | 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 58 | |||
| Wednesday, Oct 07 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Oct/02 Mortgage Market Index | Oct/02 | 213.6 | ||
| 7:00AM | Oct/02 MBA Refi Index | Oct/02 | 557.8 | ||
| 7:00AM | Oct/02 MBA Purchase Index | Oct/02 | 148.2 | ||
| 10:30AM | Oct/02 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Oct/02 | 0.922M | ||
| 11:00AM | Sep Consumer Inflation Expectations | Sep | 3.6% | ||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 39 | |||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Minutes | ||||
| 3:00PM | Aug Consumer credit (bl) | Aug | $15B | $18.06B | |
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