Another Nice Round Trip For Bonds--Especially MBS
Another Nice Round Trip For Bonds--Especially MBS
Nothing new or interesting happened today in terms of underlying events, news, or data. But the price action itself was a different story. While the moves weren't extreme, it was nonetheless notable that bonds lost ground in a very intentional way this morning only to reverse course and make it back to positive territory by the close. Yields are still broadly sideways at long-term highs, but we now have a second straight day having closed near the week's best levels. MBS outperformed Treasuries a bit, and officially turned green by the afternoon even as 10yr yields were a hair higher. It's all somewhat promising, but not conclusive evidence of "more to come." The 3-day weekend may be adding some distortion. Either way next week's data may play a big role in making this week look like a false start or sneak preview.
Another Nice Round Trip
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Oct 13 | |||||
| 6:00AM | Sep NFIB Business Optimism Index | Sep | 97.9 | 98 | 98.7 |
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 23.75K | |||
| 10:00AM | Sep Existing home sales (ml) | Sep | 3.96M | 3.98M | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Sep | -2% | ||
| 1:00PM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.945% | |||
| 2:00PM | Sep Federal budget (bl) | Sep | $-28B | $-167B | |
| Wednesday, Oct 14 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Oct/09 MBA Refi Index | Oct/09 | 515.8 | ||
| 7:00AM | Oct/09 MBA Purchase Index | Oct/09 | 145.1 | ||
| 7:00AM | Oct/09 Mortgage Market Index | Oct/09 | 204.7 | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep y/y Headline CPI (%) | Sep | 3.7% | 3.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep m/m Headline CPI (%) | Sep | 0.6% | 0.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep y/y CORE CPI (%) | Sep | 2.5% | 2.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep m/m CORE CPI (%) | Sep | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||