Broker Owner
Lumina Real Estate & Lending
License:
DRE 01471238
NMLS 334006

What's Up With Monday's Weakness?

What's Up With Monday's Weakness?

Bonds were moderately weaker on Monday and not in a way that was obviously connected to any of the potential scapegoats. We know that there was selling in the EU bond market overnight and while U.S. yields correlated with much of that move, that correlation broke down precisely when an EU-driven move would have been most relevant. It's easier to blame an ongoing recovery in the tech space even though there's a similar lack of elegant correlation between tech stocks and bond yields. Bottom line: Treasuries benefited from last week's moments of highest concern surrounding the tech sector. Since then, when those concerns have been anything less than dire, bond yields have cautiously drifted higher.

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What's up With Today's Weakness?

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0
98.95
0.00 
10YR TREASURY
5.069
-0.012 
10/18/2026 8:40PM EST
Negative reprice risk is now a consideration for most lenders and not just the jumpier "early crowd."  MBS are down 10 tick (.31) on the day and at least 5 ticks (.16) for almost any lender (except the super late crowd that didn't price until closer to 11am).    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
7.43%
+0.06% 
15YR Fixed
7.07%
+0.03% 
10/19/2026
Mortgage rates were moderately higher to start the new week, adding to the modest losses seen on Friday. The silver lining is that any of the past 3 business days saw the lowest rates since September 23rd. There were no clear reasons for today's rate movement in terms of economic reports or news headlines. The same was true for last week's biggest swings which were driven by broad bond market sentiment as traders sought safer havens due to concerns about a pull-back in the...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Oct 19
12:00AM Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR
10:00AM Oct NAHB housing market indx Oct 29 32 32
Tuesday, Oct 20
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 24.75K
8:30AM Sep Building Permits (ml) Sep 1.40M 1.403M
8:30AM Sep Housing starts number mm (ml) Sep 1.31M 1.275M
10:00AM Sep Pending Home Sales (%) Sep -0.5% 0.3%
11:30AM 6-Week Bill Auction (%) 3.980%
Broker Owner
Lumina Real Estate & Lending
License:
DRE 01471238
NMLS 334006