Ultimately Flat After Options-Driven Volatility

Ultimately Flat After Options-Driven Volatility

Treasuries continued in the same sideways holding pattern seen over the past 4 trading sessions. This generally mirrors a holding pattern in certain tech companies' credit risk metrics. In short, bonds currently have nothing better to do than wait and see if tech is experiencing some kind of true inflection point or just a false alarm. Today was set to be especially boring as a result, but there was some afternoon volatility surrounding the options expiration cut-off (which affected both Treasuries and stocks). Even then, the net effect of that volatility was less than 1.5bps of weakness in 10yr yields (5.124 after the dust settled versus 5.112 before the spike). 

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Tech Concerns Keeping Bonds in The Game

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0
98.91
+0.05 
10YR TREASURY
5.110
-0.001 
10/21/2026 2:39PM EST
After leveling off earlier, selling is resuming now with 10yr yields up a quick 2.6bps at 5.137 and MBS now down more than a quarter point from many lenders' rate sheet print times.  Negative reprices are a bigger risk now compared to the first alert of the day.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
7.40%
+0.00% 
15YR Fixed
7.04%
-0.01% 
10/21/2026
It was another ho-hum day for mortgage rates , which is more of the exception than the rule these days. But we're not complaining! The uneventful, sideways movement means rates are holding in line with the lowest levels in nearly a month. Today would have been slightly lower than yesterday had it not been for some mid-day weakness in the underlying bond market. While there were a few war-related headlines that coincided with the timing, the volatility is more attributable ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Oct 21
7:00AM Oct/16 Mortgage Market Index Oct/16 188.6 199.2
7:00AM Oct/16 MBA Refi Index Oct/16 503.1 513.5
7:00AM Oct/16 MBA Purchase Index Oct/16 129.2 139.3
10:30AM Oct/16 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Oct/16 -3.061M -0.8M -8.557M
1:00PM 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 13
Thursday, Oct 22
8:30AM Oct/17 Jobless Claims (k) Oct/17 200K 199K
8:30AM Oct/10 Continued Claims (k) Oct/10 1720K 1710K
10:00AM Sep CB Leading Index MoM (%) Sep -0.1% -0.1%
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 26