Slightly Weaker, But Much Stronger on The Week

Slightly Weaker, But Much Stronger on The Week

Friday was calm and sideways in the bigger picture. Sure, a 4+ bp increase in 10yr yields and an MBS decline of just over an eighth of a point might sound somewhat unpleasant on the average day, but considering we saw 4 times as much movement in the other, friendlier direction yesterday, we're not bothered. Rationale was rational to boot. The NASDAQ drifted sideways to slightly higher and nittier grittier canaries like Coreweave bond yields bounced back slightly lower as well. Overall, today did nothing to change the big picture. We're still waiting to see if tech sentiment gets back on track or continues to deteriorate. It won't be able to equivocate for long.

Latest Video Analysis

Weaker Today. Much Stronger This Week

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0
99.39
-0.02 
10YR TREASURY
4.992
-0.005 
10/26/2026 4:09AM EST
Here's your obligatory daily heads-up that MBS have dropped just over an eighth of a point from AM highs (frequent occurrence of late).  Very few lenders--if any--will see this as grounds for a negative reprice. It depends heavily on timing of the initial rate sheet (earlier lenders are at more risk), and only the jumpiest of the jumpy lenders would even be considering it. Bonds already look to be finding their footing, so it's entirely possible that this weakness ...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
7.33%
+0.03% 
15YR Fixed
6.98%
+0.02% 
10/23/2026
Yesterday was an exciting day for rates with the lowest levels since September 23rd and a fairly brisk decline versus the previous day.  Today? Fairly boring by comparison. Rates were technically a hair higher, which isn't too surprising given the prevailing motivations in the tech sector. Yesterday's rate rally coincided with heavy selling in tech stocks. With those same stocks avoiding drama today (and the NASDAQ moving slightly higher overall), bond yields (aka "rat...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Oct 26
Tuesday, Oct 27
8:00AM Sep Building Permits (ml) Sep 1.4M 1.403M
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 18.5K
8:30AM Sep Durable goods (%) Sep 1.5% 0%
8:30AM Sep Core CapEx (%) Sep 0.7% 1.6%
9:00AM Aug FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) Aug 0.1% 0.3%
9:00AM Aug CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) Aug 0%
9:00AM Aug FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) Aug 2.6%
9:00AM Aug Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) Aug 2.5% 2.5%
10:00AM Sep New Home Sales (%) (%) Sep 6.4%
10:00AM Oct CB Consumer Confidence (%) Oct 81 81.9
10:00AM Sep New Home Sales (ml) Sep 0.65M 0.684M
11:30AM 6-Week Bill Auction (%) 3.975%