Boring, Sideways Day. Does Wednesday's Fed Announcement Even Matter?
Boring, Sideways Day. Does Wednesday's Fed Announcement Even Matter?
Neocloud concerns continued to experience a small correction/consolidation after last week's surge. Interest rates could have justified a bit of weakness as a result, but managed to hold fairly steady. Bond market indecision likely has more to do with that and less to do with any sort of Fed Day anticipation. Markets have almost fully priced in a "pause." Any Fed-induced volatility would thus be dependent on verbiage--either in the announcement itself or the 2:30pm ET press conference. This is one of those Fed meetings that could be entirely forgettable, but post-press-conference volatility should never be ruled out as a risk--even on seemingly low consequence Fed days.
Does The Fed Announcement Even Matter?
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Oct 28 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Oct/23 Mortgage Market Index | Oct/23 | 188.6 | ||
| 7:00AM | Oct/23 MBA Purchase Index | Oct/23 | 129.2 | ||
| 7:00AM | Oct/23 MBA Refi Index | Oct/23 | 503.1 | ||
| 10:30AM | Oct/23 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Oct/23 | 0M | -3.061M | |
| 11:30AM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.040% | 0.040% | ||
| 2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4.0% | 4% | ||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Statement | ||||
| 2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||
| Thursday, Oct 29 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Q3 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q3 | 2.8% | ||
| 8:30AM | Q3 GDP (%) | Q3 | 3.2% | 2.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/24 Jobless Claims (k) | Oct/24 | 199K | 194K | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q3 | 2.4% | 3.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Sep | 3.1% | 3% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/17 Continued Claims (k) | Oct/17 | 1720K | 1728K | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q3 | 3.4% | 5% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep PCE (y/y) (%) | Sep | 3.6% | 3.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Sep | 0.5% | 0.3% | |
| 1:00PM | 7-Year Note Auction | 5.085% | |||
