Minimal Impact From Fed

Minimal Impact From Fed

Fed day has come and gone with minimal fanfare. Markets ultimately found reason to downgrade expectations for future rate hikes (likely due to Warsh's general "wait and see" comments during the press conference), but at the expense of a bit of weakness in the longer end of the yield curve. In other words, 2yr yields fell and 10yr yields rose. Neither were appreciably far from levels seen 2 days ago.  Additionally, not all of the above should be attributed to the Fed. 10yr yields are actually ending the day lower compared to levels seen around noon (2 hours before the Fed announcement). Overnight weakness in the 10yr is easier to connect to lower funding costs for some of the neocloud companies that have recently been under the microscope. Afternoon gains corresponded with Oracle saying it anticipated lower funding needs. 

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Minimal Impact From Fed

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0
99.45
-0.01 
10YR TREASURY
5.043
+0.044 
10/28/2026 3:39PM EST
MBS are back to their weakest levels of the day after the Fed announcement. The move has been relatively low in volume and fairly gradual. We continue to expect a far greater chance of actual volatility during the forthcoming press conference, but this weakness could modestly increase negative reprice risk for a few of the jumpiest lenders. 6.0 coupons are only down 3 ticks (.09) on the day and 5 ticks (.16) from the AM highs.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
7.35%
+0.02% 
15YR Fixed
7.00%
-0.01% 
10/28/2026
Today's Fed announcement had no impact on mortgage rate movement, and minimal impact on intraday bond market volatility. Well before the Fed announcement, the bond market was already slightly weaker compared to yesterday's latest levels. As a result the average mortgage lender set rates just a hair higher. Despite the increase, 30yr fixed rates are only 0.05% above the low of 7.30% seen last week and only 0.02% above yesterday's mark of 7.33%. Recent upward pressure is a fa...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Oct 28
7:00AM Oct/23 Mortgage Market Index Oct/23 195.0 188.6
7:00AM Oct/23 MBA Purchase Index Oct/23 134.1 129.2
7:00AM Oct/23 MBA Refi Index Oct/23 516.8 503.1
10:30AM Oct/23 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Oct/23 -1.892M 0M -3.061M
11:30AM 2-Year FRN Auction (%) 0.038% 0.040% 0.040%
2:00PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 4% 4.0% 4%
2:00PM FOMC Statement
2:30PM Fed Press Conference
2:30PM Warsh Press Conference
Thursday, Oct 29
8:30AM Q3 GDP Final Sales (%) Q3 2.8%
8:30AM Q3 GDP (%) Q3 3.2% 2.2%
8:30AM Oct/24 Jobless Claims (k) Oct/24 199K 194K
8:30AM Q3 Core PCE Prices QoQ Q3 2.4% 3.3%
8:30AM Sep Core PCE (y/y) (%) Sep 3.1% 3%
8:30AM Sep Core PCE (m/m) (%) Sep 0.3% 0.2%
8:30AM Oct/17 Continued Claims (k) Oct/17 1720K 1728K
8:30AM Q3 PCE Prices (Q/Q) Q3 3.4% 5%
8:30AM Sep PCE (y/y) (%) Sep 3.6% 3.4%
8:30AM Sep PCE prices (m/m) (%) Sep 0.5% 0.3%
1:00PM 7-Year Note Auction 5.085%