Minimal Impact From Fed
Minimal Impact From Fed
Fed day has come and gone with minimal fanfare. Markets ultimately found reason to downgrade expectations for future rate hikes (likely due to Warsh's general "wait and see" comments during the press conference), but at the expense of a bit of weakness in the longer end of the yield curve. In other words, 2yr yields fell and 10yr yields rose. Neither were appreciably far from levels seen 2 days ago. Additionally, not all of the above should be attributed to the Fed. 10yr yields are actually ending the day lower compared to levels seen around noon (2 hours before the Fed announcement). Overnight weakness in the 10yr is easier to connect to lower funding costs for some of the neocloud companies that have recently been under the microscope. Afternoon gains corresponded with Oracle saying it anticipated lower funding needs.
Minimal Impact From Fed
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Oct 28 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Oct/23 Mortgage Market Index | Oct/23 | 195.0 | 188.6 | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/23 MBA Purchase Index | Oct/23 | 134.1 | 129.2 | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/23 MBA Refi Index | Oct/23 | 516.8 | 503.1 | |
| 10:30AM | Oct/23 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Oct/23 | -1.892M | 0M | -3.061M |
| 11:30AM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.038% | 0.040% | 0.040% | |
| 2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4% | 4.0% | 4% | |
| 2:00PM | FOMC Statement | ||||
| 2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||
| 2:30PM | Warsh Press Conference | ||||
| Thursday, Oct 29 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Q3 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q3 | 2.8% | ||
| 8:30AM | Q3 GDP (%) | Q3 | 3.2% | 2.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/24 Jobless Claims (k) | Oct/24 | 199K | 194K | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q3 | 2.4% | 3.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Sep | 3.1% | 3% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/17 Continued Claims (k) | Oct/17 | 1720K | 1728K | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q3 | 3.4% | 5% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep PCE (y/y) (%) | Sep | 3.6% | 3.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Sep | 0.5% | 0.3% | |
| 1:00PM | 7-Year Note Auction | 5.085% | |||