Slightly Stronger Start. Mostly Holding After ISM Data

Slightly Stronger Start. Mostly Holding After ISM Data

Bonds were initially a hair weaker at the start of the overnight session, but rallied gradually after that. The sharpest gains arrived at the 9:30am NYSE open, suggesting money manager reallocations and "new month" trades. ISM Manufacturing hit 30 minutes later and the first reaction was modest bounce toward slightly higher yields and slightly higher stock prices. Perhaps the most notable development is that stocks are back up to Friday morning's levels even as bonds remain 4-5bps lower compared to the same baseline.

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Bonds Almost Able to Break Even Thanks to Tech

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0
100.00
+0.19 
10YR TREASURY
4.881
-0.049 
11/2/2026 10:04AM EST
Bonds were initially a hair weaker at the start of the overnight session, but rallied gradually after that. The sharpest gains arrived at the 9:30am NYSE open, suggesting money manager reallocations and "new month" trades. ISM Manufacturing hit 30 minutes later and the first reaction was modest bounce toward slightly higher yields and slightly higher stock prices. Perhaps the most notable development is that stocks are back up to Friday morning's levels even as bonds remain 4...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
7.27%
+0.00% 
15YR Fixed
6.92%
+0.00% 
11/2/2026
The rate market continues taking cues from turmoil in the tech sector. That resulted in the lowest rates in more than a month today as tech stocks slide to their lowest levels since July.  The biggest shift for the underlying bond market (bonds dictate rates) came just before 1pm on reports that Anthropic's post IPO credit rating was not likely to be "investment grade." That matters because it means Anthropic would face higher borrowing costs.  Given the company...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Nov 02
9:45AM Oct S&P Global Manuf. PMI Oct 54.9 56 55.9
10:00AM Oct ISM Manufacturing Employment Oct 52.4 52.7
10:00AM Sep Construction spending (%) Sep -1.9% 0.4% 0.9%
10:00AM Oct ISM Mfg Prices Paid Oct 75.2 77 77.9
10:00AM Oct ISM Manufacturing PMI Oct 55.5 54.6 54.5
2:00PM Loan Officer Survey
Tuesday, Nov 03
10:00AM Sep Factory orders mm (%) Sep 1.2% 0.1%
10:00AM Nov IBD economic optimism Nov 46.2 46.8
10:00AM Sep JOLTs Job Quits (ml) Sep 3.066M
10:00AM Sep USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) Sep 7.13M 7.079M
11:30AM 6-Week Bill Auction (%) 3.950%
2:00PM Oct Total Vehicle Sales (ml) Oct 15.9M 16M