Little-Moved by Huge Drop in Oil and Tech Stocks
Little-Moved by Huge Drop in Oil and Tech Stocks
Bonds were technically stronger at 4pm ET, but just barely. Over the past 2 sessions, we've seen Treasury yields noticeably disconnect from the prevailing correlation with tech stocks. This began after the opening bell last Friday and mostly continued today. Bonds were generally improving while the NASDAQ was higher for most of the day and then sold off starting at 1pm when tech stocks saw their biggest losses (i.e. the opposite of the prevailing correlation). Part of the credit for the bond selling goes to the market's takeaway from Treasury's preliminary borrowing estimates which were $24 billion higher than expected before adjusting for estimated cash balances. Some of the earlier strength in bonds aligned with a sharp decline in oil. While it's true that oil has been the opposite of a reliable source of inspiration for bonds, today's drop was sharp enough to possibly make an exception.
Bonds Almost Able to Break Even Thanks to Tech
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Nov 02 | |||||
| 9:45AM | Oct S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Oct | 54.9 | 56 | 55.9 |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Manufacturing Employment | Oct | 52.4 | 52.7 | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Construction spending (%) | Sep | -1.9% | 0.4% | 0.9% |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Oct | 75.2 | 77 | 77.9 |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Manufacturing PMI | Oct | 55.5 | 54.6 | 54.5 |
| 2:00PM | Loan Officer Survey | ||||
| Tuesday, Nov 03 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Sep Factory orders mm (%) | Sep | 1.2% | 0.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Nov IBD economic optimism | Nov | 46.2 | 46.8 | |
| 10:00AM | Sep JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Sep | 3.066M | ||
| 10:00AM | Sep USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Sep | 7.13M | 7.079M | |
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.950% | |||
| 2:00PM | Oct Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Oct | 15.9M | 16M | |
