Modestly Jolted

Modestly Jolted

Bonds were sideways to slightly weaker overnight. They rallied modestly in concert with war headlines but then erased gains after strong JOLTS data (job Openings and labor turnover survey).  MBS are down nearly a quarter point as of 1015am ET.

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Little-Moved By Huge Drop in Oil and Tech Stocks

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0
99.74
-0.12 
10YR TREASURY
4.956
+0.052 
11/3/2026 12:19PM EST
Job Openings (JOLTS) came out much stronger than expected and bonds are continuing to move into negative territory, following an initial pull back after additional war-related headlines.  10yr yields are now up just over 4bps and just under 4.95.   MBS are down 3 ticks (0.09), and just over an eighth from the AM highs.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
7.30%
+0.03% 
15YR Fixed
6.91%
-0.01% 
11/3/2026
It was a perfectly fine day for mortgage rates to start the new week. The underlying bond market improved modestly, drawing on a combination of sharply lower oil prices and another drop in tech-related stocks. While it's true that oil prices haven't had a reliable impact on bonds/rates over the past month, today's drop was big enough that is probably helped to some extent, especially when we consider some headwinds created by updated borrowing estimates released by the U....   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Nov 03
6:00AM Nov IBD economic optimism Nov 48.5 46.2 46.8
10:00AM Sep Factory orders mm (%) Sep 1.8% 1.2% 0.1%
10:00AM Sep JOLTs Job Quits (ml) Sep 3.365M 3.066M
10:00AM Sep USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) Sep 7.523M 7.10M 7.079M
11:30AM 6-Week Bill Auction (%) 3.940% 3.950%
2:00PM Oct Total Vehicle Sales (ml) Oct 15.9M 16M
Wednesday, Nov 04
7:00AM Oct/30 Mortgage Market Index Oct/30 195.0
7:00AM Oct/30 MBA Refi Index Oct/30 516.8
7:00AM Oct/30 MBA Purchase Index Oct/30 134.1
8:15AM Oct ADP jobs (k) Oct 69K 90K
8:30AM Sep Trade Gap (bl) Sep $-108B $-105.6B
9:45AM Oct S&P Global Services PMI Oct 57.9 58.8
9:45AM Oct S&P Global Composite PMI Oct 57.6 58.4
10:00AM Oct ISM Biz Activity Oct 56.5
10:00AM Oct ISM Services Employment Oct 50.1
10:00AM Oct ISM Services New Orders Oct 59.8
10:00AM Oct ISM Services Prices Oct 74.0
10:00AM Oct ISM N-Mfg PMI Oct 54.8 54.9
10:30AM Oct/30 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Oct/30 -1.892M