Brandon Snider
Loan Officer
Maven Mortgage
License:
181033

Volatile Gains as Markets Digest Elections and Data

Volatile Gains as Markets Digest Elections and Data

There are several moving parts to today's trading levels, but the TL;DR is that bonds are holding modest gains so far despite some 2-way volatility. The overnight session started out with the strongest gains of the day, clearly coinciding with a stock market swoon.  Stock prices and bond yields bounced higher when the senate majority was called around 11:30pm ET. Bonds quickly unwound most of the overnight gains before stabilizing sideways at slightly stronger levels. Stocks have been rising ever since. In other words, there was no magical relief in the bond market about political gridlock or the defusing of the risk of $5k payouts (who knows if that would have happened, but if it did, it would have implied more Treasury borrowing). Stocks saw additional gains at the open. This put some pressure on bonds. Then at 10am, the ISM data led to another small bout of selling as the comments reflect forward-looking inflation concerns.   

Latest Video Analysis

Early Strength Thwarted by Data and Equity Resilience

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0
100.14
+0.39 
10YR TREASURY
4.904
-0.066 
11/4/2026 1:24PM EST
Just a quick update to amend the recent alert. 10yr yields are back down near the lows of the day (-5.2bps at 4.918) and MBS have bounced 3 ticks (.09).  Negative reprice risk is quickly fading.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
7.22%
-0.08% 
15YR Fixed
6.85%
-0.06% 
11/4/2026
30yr fixed rates moved over 7.25% on September 23rd, 2026 and continued to long-term highs of 7.61% by early October. But starting in mid October, rates began declining as the market grew increasingly concerned about the tech sector. Until today 7.27% marked the floor of the present rally. Now the floor is lower. Rates began the day moderately lower with an average top-tier 30yr fixed rate of 7.25%. Reasons can be debated, but may include: Investors coming off the sidel...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Nov 04
7:00AM Oct/30 Mortgage Market Index Oct/30 192.6 195.0
7:00AM Oct/30 MBA Refi Index Oct/30 517.5 516.8
7:00AM Oct/30 MBA Purchase Index Oct/30 131.4 134.1
8:15AM Oct ADP jobs (k) Oct 86K 69K 90K
8:30AM Sep Trade Gap (bl) Sep $-105B $-108B $-105.6B
9:45AM Oct S&P Global Services PMI Oct 56.1 57.9 58.8
9:45AM Oct S&P Global Composite PMI Oct 55.9 57.6 58.4
10:00AM Oct ISM Biz Activity Oct 53.8 56.5
10:00AM Oct ISM Services Employment Oct 51.4 50.1
10:00AM Oct ISM Services New Orders Oct 55.9 59.8
10:00AM Oct ISM Services Prices Oct 73.0 74.0
10:00AM Oct ISM N-Mfg PMI Oct 54.5 54.8 54.9
10:30AM Oct/30 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Oct/30 -0.865M 0.9M -1.892M
2:00PM Oct Total Vehicle Sales (ml) Oct 15.5M 15.9M 16M
Thursday, Nov 05
5:30AM Oct Challenger layoffs (k) Oct 43.281K
8:30AM Oct/24 Continued Claims (k) Oct/24 1710K 1701K
8:30AM Oct/31 Jobless Claims (k) Oct/31 196K 194K
8:30AM Q3 Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final Q3 0.6% 1.2%
10:20AM NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months $3.652 billion
Brandon Snider
Loan Officer
Maven Mortgage
License:
181033