Elections, Oil, and Neocloud Stocks, Oh My!

Elections, Oil, and Neocloud Stocks, Oh My!

There are 3 publicly traded neocloud stocks that are big enough to care about. All 3 hit new long term lows today (ranging from 6 months to over a year).  All 3 continue to track very well with the recent bond market rally. This is simplest way to approach today's gains. The more you wander from that path, the more complex and circular the logic becomes. Oil prices have plummeted almost $20since last Friday. Seems like it should matter, and a few traders might agree. Then there's the election, which caused a surge in the broader stock market. We'd be careful giving it credit for bond market gains considering yields jumped from 4.90% to almost 4.95% when the senate results were called by news agencies. The easiest way to attempt to connect those dots would be via "AI company headwind implications." Such headwinds could imply slower corporate bond issuance or even a slower pace of economic growth. Bottom line: we have no objection to the lowest rates in more than a month, but the rally still looks most dependent on neocloud jitters. 

Latest Video Analysis

Elections, Oil, and The Neocloud

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0
99.97
+0.23 
10YR TREASURY
4.916
-0.055 
11/3/2026 8:10PM EST
Just a quick update to amend the recent alert. 10yr yields are back down near the lows of the day (-5.2bps at 4.918) and MBS have bounced 3 ticks (.09).  Negative reprice risk is quickly fading.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
7.22%
-0.08% 
15YR Fixed
6.85%
-0.06% 
11/4/2026
30yr fixed rates moved over 7.25% on September 23rd, 2026 and continued to long-term highs of 7.61% by early October. But starting in mid October, rates began declining as the market grew increasingly concerned about the tech sector. Until today 7.27% marked the floor of the present rally. Now the floor is lower. Rates began the day moderately lower with an average top-tier 30yr fixed rate of 7.25%. Reasons can be debated, but may include: Investors coming off the sidel...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Nov 04
7:00AM Oct/30 Mortgage Market Index Oct/30 192.6 195.0
7:00AM Oct/30 MBA Refi Index Oct/30 517.5 516.8
7:00AM Oct/30 MBA Purchase Index Oct/30 131.4 134.1
8:15AM Oct ADP jobs (k) Oct 86K 69K 90K
8:30AM Sep Trade Gap (bl) Sep $-105B $-108B $-105.6B
9:45AM Oct S&P Global Services PMI Oct 56.1 57.9 58.8
9:45AM Oct S&P Global Composite PMI Oct 55.9 57.6 58.4
10:00AM Oct ISM Biz Activity Oct 53.8 56.5
10:00AM Oct ISM Services Employment Oct 51.4 50.1
10:00AM Oct ISM Services New Orders Oct 55.9 59.8
10:00AM Oct ISM Services Prices Oct 73.0 74.0
10:00AM Oct ISM N-Mfg PMI Oct 54.5 54.8 54.9
10:30AM Oct/30 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Oct/30 -0.865M 0.9M -1.892M
2:00PM Oct Total Vehicle Sales (ml) Oct 15.5M 15.9M 16M
Thursday, Nov 05
5:30AM Oct Challenger layoffs (k) Oct 43.281K
8:30AM Oct/24 Continued Claims (k) Oct/24 1710K 1701K
8:30AM Oct/31 Jobless Claims (k) Oct/31 196K 194K
8:30AM Q3 Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final Q3 0.6% 1.2%
10:20AM NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months $3.652 billion