Elections, Oil, and Neocloud Stocks, Oh My!
Elections, Oil, and Neocloud Stocks, Oh My!
There are 3 publicly traded neocloud stocks that are big enough to care about. All 3 hit new long term lows today (ranging from 6 months to over a year). All 3 continue to track very well with the recent bond market rally. This is simplest way to approach today's gains. The more you wander from that path, the more complex and circular the logic becomes. Oil prices have plummeted almost $20since last Friday. Seems like it should matter, and a few traders might agree. Then there's the election, which caused a surge in the broader stock market. We'd be careful giving it credit for bond market gains considering yields jumped from 4.90% to almost 4.95% when the senate results were called by news agencies. The easiest way to attempt to connect those dots would be via "AI company headwind implications." Such headwinds could imply slower corporate bond issuance or even a slower pace of economic growth. Bottom line: we have no objection to the lowest rates in more than a month, but the rally still looks most dependent on neocloud jitters.
Elections, Oil, and The Neocloud
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Nov 04 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Oct/30 Mortgage Market Index | Oct/30 | 192.6 | 195.0 | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/30 MBA Refi Index | Oct/30 | 517.5 | 516.8 | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/30 MBA Purchase Index | Oct/30 | 131.4 | 134.1 | |
| 8:15AM | Oct ADP jobs (k) | Oct | 86K | 69K | 90K |
| 8:30AM | Sep Trade Gap (bl) | Sep | $-105B | $-108B | $-105.6B |
| 9:45AM | Oct S&P Global Services PMI | Oct | 56.1 | 57.9 | 58.8 |
| 9:45AM | Oct S&P Global Composite PMI | Oct | 55.9 | 57.6 | 58.4 |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Biz Activity | Oct | 53.8 | 56.5 | |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Services Employment | Oct | 51.4 | 50.1 | |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Services New Orders | Oct | 55.9 | 59.8 | |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Services Prices | Oct | 73.0 | 74.0 | |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM N-Mfg PMI | Oct | 54.5 | 54.8 | 54.9 |
| 10:30AM | Oct/30 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Oct/30 | -0.865M | 0.9M | -1.892M |
| 5:00PM | Oct Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Oct | 15.5M | 15.9M | 16M |
| Thursday, Nov 05 | |||||
| 5:30AM | Oct Challenger layoffs (k) | Oct | 43.281K | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct/24 Continued Claims (k) | Oct/24 | 1710K | 1701K | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/31 Jobless Claims (k) | Oct/31 | 196K | 194K | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final | Q3 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 10:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months | $3.652 billion | |||