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Super Strong Jobs Report NOT Hitting Bonds Like You'd Expect
Super Strong Jobs Report NOT Hitting Bonds Like You'd Expect
Nonfarm payrolls came in 100k higher than forecast and the unemployment dropped even as the participation rate moved higher. That's a recipe for a bond market sell-off if we ever saw one. But apart from an initial knee-jerk sell-off, yields returned back in line with pre-NFP levels within 8 minutes and haven't moved much since then. What gives? Well... we expect that this is one of those days where market commentators are forced to adapt their narrative to the trading as opposed to hoping the trading would validate their narrative. One caveat is that professional/biz services accounted for +70k of the 165k total, whereas it has averaged +15k over the past year. This isn't enough to discount the strength of the data. In fact, it's a genuinely strong report. Bonds simply don't care (apart from ultra short term bills and Fed Funds Futures).
Stocks Rocked. Bonds Picked Up Some Slack
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Nov 06 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Oct Participation Rate | Oct | 61.9% | 61.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Average earnings mm (%) | Oct | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Oct Unemployment rate mm (%) | Oct | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| 8:30AM | Oct Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Oct | 165K | 65K | 29K |
| 10:00AM | Nov Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Nov | 3.4% | 3.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Nov U Mich conditions | Nov | 51.0 | 48 | 46.7 |
| 10:00AM | Nov Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Nov | 4.3% | 4.7% | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Nov | 51.0 | 48 | 48.0 |
| 3:00PM | Sep Consumer credit (bl) | Sep | $12B | $8.28B | |
| Monday, Nov 09 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Oct CB Employment Trends Index | Oct | 107.56 | ||
| 10:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months | $3.653 billion | |||
| 11:00AM | Oct Consumer Inflation Expectations | Oct | 3.9% | ||
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