Paul
Summit Funding Advisors LLC
License:
NMLS #209017
NMLS CO #947748

Slightly Weaker as Stocks Recover. CPI On Deck

Slightly Weaker as Stocks Recover. CPI On Deck

In the bigger picture, today offers little by way of actionable new info for the bond market. Unsurprisingly, volatility is being dictated by a decently big bounce in equities. Stocks were sideways to slightly stronger overnight, but have jumped somewhat sharply at the 9:30am NYSE open. Roughly half of last Thursday's rout has now been erased. Bonds weren't nearly as eager to move on Thursday relative to stocks and the same is true so far this morning. Tomorrow's CPI is the first major test this week.

Latest Video Analysis

Very Strong Showing Considering Headwinds

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0
100.06
-0.03 
10YR TREASURY
4.866
+0.003 
11/9/2026 10:29AM EST
For those of you with rate sheet time stamps near 9:30am ET, there is already a modicum of negative reprice risk. MBS are down 6 ticks (.19) since then as the rebound in equities continues . 10yr yields are up only 1.5 bps on the day at 4.878 and MBS are down only 3 ticks (.09) in total.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
7.18%
+0.01% 
15YR Fixed
6.83%
+0.00% 
11/9/2026
Today was an odd one for mortgage rates . Anyone who's been following the rate market for very long will tell you that the monthly jobs report is one of the most reliable source of volatility for rates. In general, when job growth is much stronger than expected, rates rise and vice versa. But in today's case, rates managed to hold perfectly flat despite the jobs report absolutely crushing expectations. Understand that no one who is offering a reason for this would have pre...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Nov 09
10:00AM Oct CB Employment Trends Index Oct 108.36 107.56
11:00AM Oct Consumer Inflation Expectations Oct 3.9% 3.9%
1:00PM 3-Year Note Auction 4.932%
Tuesday, Nov 10
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 30YR
6:00AM Oct NFIB Business Optimism Index Oct 97.7 97.9
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 16.75K
8:30AM Oct y/y CORE CPI (%) Oct 2.8% 2.6%
8:30AM Oct m/m Headline CPI (%) Oct 0.3% 0.6%
8:30AM Oct m/m CORE CPI (%) Oct 0.2% 0.3%
8:30AM Oct y/y Headline CPI (%) Oct 3.9% 3.7%
11:00AM WASDE Report
12:00PM EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
1:00PM 10-Year Note Auction 5.300%
Paul
Summit Funding Advisors LLC
License:
NMLS #209017
NMLS CO #947748