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Don't Try to Find Scapegoats For All of Today's Bond Selling
Don't Try to Find Scapegoats For All of Today's Bond Selling
Bonds sold off fairly sharply today and the motivations transcended today's menu of market moving events. If we wanted to focus only that menu, it's main selections included Trump comments on the U.S. not needing a deal with Iran, a stronger showing in stocks, NVDA drama failing to tank tech stocks, and a bevy of hawkish Fed comments. To be fair, the selling perfectly aligned with Fed rate expectations for the middle of 2027, but our contention is that those expectations moved more quickly than the underlying motivations suggested. In order to round out the bearishness, we need to consider follow-through momentum from Tuesday's CPI as well as the breakout from the rally trend. That rally was predicated on a tech sector flight to safety that seems to have run out of steam for now.
Is This The End of The Friendly Trend?
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Nov 12 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Nov/07 Jobless Claims (k) | Nov/07 | 200K | 195K | 189K |
| 8:30AM | Oct/31 Continued Claims (k) | Oct/31 | 1697K | 1710K | 1718K |
| 10:00AM | Oct Existing home sales (ml) | Oct | 3.75M | 3.85M | 3.99M |
| 12:00PM | Nov/06 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Nov/06 | 4.657M | -1.1M | -0.865M |
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 5.441% | 5.618% | ||
| 2:00PM | Oct Federal budget (bl) | Oct | $-404B | $-298.6B | $-27B |
| Friday, Nov 13 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | Oct PPI y/y | Oct | 6.6% | 6.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct PPI m/m (%) | Oct | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Core PPI y/y (%) | Oct | 5% | 5% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Core PPI m/m (%) | Oct | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
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