MBS and Treasury Markets Archive

Mike David

Producing Branch Manager

Oklahoma Mortgage Group

P: (918) 361-1550

M: (918) 361-1550

E: mike@omghomeloans.com

www.OklahomaMortgageGroup.com

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Thu, 9:41 PM

Solid Showing In Spite of Data and Uncertainty - Thu, 9:41 PM

MBS Recap Solid Showing In Spite of Data and Uncertainty MBS Recap Matthew Graham ...

Thu, 5:09 PM

Stronger Start + Early Weakness - Thu, 5:09 PM

Bonds rallied in overnight trading. The move was exceptionally linear, without any obvious regard for movement in equities or European bonds. Yields were at session lows ahead of the 8:30am data,...

Thu, 4:01 PM

MBS Moving Into Negative Territory - Thu, 4:01 PM

Bonds were holding fairly flat this morning, but began to sell a bit just after 10:35am. MBS are now down 1 tick (.03) on the day and 6 ticks (.19) from the AM highs. Most lenders didn't pr...

Thu, 1:36 PM

Overnight Gains Cooling a Bit After Data - Thu, 1:36 PM

GDP Q4 2.3 vs 2.6 f'cast, 3.1 prev PCE prices 2.5 vs 2.5 f'cast Jobless Claims 207k vs 220k f'cast, 223k prev To be fair, the overnight gains were alr...

Wed, 9:26 PM

Uneventful Fed Day, Bonds Eventually Agree - Wed, 9:26 PM

MBS Recap Uneventful Fed Day, Bonds Eventually Agree MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:...

Wed, 8:03 PM

Bonds Back to Pre-Fed Levels - Wed, 8:03 PM

Powell addressed confusion over the policy statement text, basically saying it was only an attempt to shorten a sentence and not to send a signal on inflation. While there's no real way to ...

Wed, 7:03 PM

First Move After Fed Announcement is Weaker - Wed, 7:03 PM

MBS are now down 3 ticks on the day (.09) and nearly a quarter point from the AM highs. Lenders are at risk of negative reprices. 10yr yields are up 4.3bps at 4.577. &nb...

Wed, 7:01 PM

Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement - Wed, 7:01 PM

What follows is a comparison between today's newly released Fed announcement and the previous announcement. Additions are blue/underlined. Subtractions are red/struck-through. Unchang...

Wed, 5:12 PM

Early Weakness But Bigger Picture is Unchanged - Wed, 5:12 PM

Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory but have pulled back as we head into the noon hour. If we put today's movement under a microscope, there's enough weakness for some n...

Wed, 4:12 PM

Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Wed, 4:12 PM

European bonds are selling off and spilling over to US markets. There could also be some pressure from tariff comments in Lutnick's confirmation hearing. It's not an extreme move, but...

Tue, 9:23 PM

Not Expecting Fireworks From The Fed - Tue, 9:23 PM

MBS Recap Not Expecting Fireworks From The Fed MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:20 PM ...

Tue, 2:02 PM

Stronger Internals Offset Weaker Durable Goods Headline - Tue, 2:02 PM

Bonds were weaker overnight as markets calmed down a bit after yesterday's DeepSeek frenzy. The 8:20am CME open brought in just a bit of buying, but there's been better selling since the 8:...

Mon, 9:53 PM

Bonds Seek Lower Yields, But not Too Deeply Yet - Mon, 9:53 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Seek Lower Yields, But not Too Deeply Yet MBS Recap Matthew Graham...

Mon, 3:18 PM

Big Bond Rally as Investors Dump AI Stocks - Mon, 3:18 PM

NVDA has obviously been THE biggest driver of prevailing bull market in stocks. In 2024, its market cap increased by just over 2 trillion dollars. Following relatively viral overnight news r...

Fri, January 24, 9:27 PM

Modest Gains Make For an Uneventful Week - Fri, January 24, 9:27 PM

MBS Recap Modest Gains Make For an Uneventful Week MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:26...

Fri, January 24, 8:13 PM

Head's Up: Still Stronger, But Down an Eighth From Highs - Fri, January 24, 8:13 PM

There's no new cause for concern and nothing dramatic happening in the bond market. Recent trading in Treasuries has been very flat for the past hour. A few trades have come through in 5.5 ...

Fri, January 24, 5:02 PM

Yields Finding a Ceiling After AM Data - Fri, January 24, 5:02 PM

Due to the incredibly light calendar of economic data this week, this morning's combination of S&P PMI and Consumer Sentiment added up to the most consequential morning of market movers for b...

Fri, January 24, 3:00 PM

Mixed Reaction to PMI Data - Fri, January 24, 3:00 PM

S&P Services PMI 52.8 vs 56.5 f'cast, 56.8 prev prices and employment moved higher This morning's S&P PMI (not to be confused with the bigger market mover, ISM PMI) wa...

Thu, January 23, 9:42 PM

Bonds Feeling Defensive Despite Trump's Demands For Lower Rates - Thu, January 23, 9:42 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Feeling Defensive Despite Trump's Demands For Lower Rates MBS Recap &nbs...

Thu, January 23, 3:45 PM

No Help From Slightly Higher Jobless Claims - Thu, January 23, 3:45 PM

Yesterday's recap began by calling attention to the "extreme dearth of big ticket economic data" this week. Thursday AM brought the weekly jobless claims data--the first report of the week ...

Thu, January 23, 2:02 PM

Bonds Barely Budge After Jobless Claims Data - Thu, January 23, 2:02 PM

Jobless Claims 223k vs 220k f'cast, 217k prev Continued Claims 1899k vs 1860k f'cast, 1853k prev Bonds were modestly weaker overnight and remain in just-barely-weak...

Wed, January 22, 9:06 PM

Absence of Data Leaves Focus on Techs and the Waiting Game - Wed, January 22, 9:06 PM

MBS Recap Absence of Data Leaves Focus on Technicals and the Waiting Game MBS Recap &n...

Wed, January 22, 5:23 PM

Resistance Kicking In - Wed, January 22, 5:23 PM

Bonds rallied yesterday, largely in an attempt to catch up with the movement that occurred on Monday when cash trading was closed (futures and other markets implied moderate gains). In the slight...

Wed, January 22, 3:58 PM

Down More Than an Eighth From Highs - Wed, January 22, 3:58 PM

Bonds began the day roughly unchanged and rallied modestly until 9am ET. There's been steady selling since then. 10yr yields are now up 1.8bps at 4.597 and MBS are down 2 ticks (...

Tue, January 21, 9:54 PM

Bonds Calmly Hold Overnight Gains - Tue, January 21, 9:54 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Calmly Hold Overnight Gains MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:53 PM ...

Tue, January 21, 3:57 PM

Bonds Open Stronger Thanks to Tariff Uncertainty - Tue, January 21, 3:57 PM

Trump issued numerous executive orders on Monday, but conspicuously absent was any specific directive regarding tariffs. This was one of the key areas of focus for financial markets. ...

Fri, January 17, 9:56 PM

Slightly Weaker Drift, But Broadly Uneventful - Fri, January 17, 9:56 PM

MBS Recap Slightly Weaker Drift, But Broadly Uneventful MBS Recap Matthew Graham |...

Fri, January 17, 9:04 PM

MBS Down to New Lows in Late Trading - Fri, January 17, 9:04 PM

10yr Treasuries just edged back up to perfectly unchanged levels at 4.613. While they haven't spent much time in weaker territory today, they're up from AM lows under 4.57. MBS have also...

Fri, January 17, 4:08 PM

Down Almost a Quarter Point From AM Highs - Fri, January 17, 4:08 PM

This isn't necessarily an urgent reprice alert, but more of a heads-up considering the timing if the weakness. Specifically, the AM highs only lasted through 9:15am and bonds started slidin...

Fri, January 17, 3:38 PM

Pre-3 Day Weekend Volatility is a Thing - Fri, January 17, 3:38 PM

It always bears repeating that "predictions are for suckers" and if there were a hard and fast rule about what markets do in certain scenarios, traders could take advantage of those probabilities...

Thu, January 16, 9:29 PM

2 Straight Days of Gains?! - Thu, January 16, 9:29 PM

MBS Recap 2 Straight Days of Gains?! MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:28 PM ...

Thu, January 16, 4:48 PM

Pushing Into Stronger Territory With Help From Data, Fed, and Maybe More - Thu, January 16, 4:48 PM

While it was never going to be on the same level as yesterday's CPI in terms of market movement potential, Retail Sales was likely to be today's most relevant data. The early price action confirm...

Thu, January 16, 1:36 PM

Bonds Dialing Back Some Overnight Losses on Retail Sales Miss - Thu, January 16, 1:36 PM

Retail Sales 0.4 vs 0.6 f'cast, 0.7 prev Retail Sales excluding autos 0.4 vs 0.4 f'cast, 0.2 prev Jobless Claims 217k vs 210k f'cast, 201k prev Continued...

Wed, January 15, 10:00 PM

CPI Lived Up To Market Moving Potential And Then Some - Wed, January 15, 10:00 PM

MBS Recap CPI Lived Up To Market Moving Potential And Then Some MBS Recap Matthew ...

Wed, January 15, 3:37 PM

If You Needed Proof That Inflation Data is Back in Fashion... - Wed, January 15, 3:37 PM

On December 18th, one of the most striking takeaways from Fed Chair Powell's press conference was the shift in the Fed's focus from the labor market to inflation data. Said shift was frequently r...

Wed, January 15, 1:33 PM

Much Stronger After CPI Comes in Soft - Wed, January 15, 1:33 PM

Monthly Core CPI 0.2 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.3 prev unrounded: 0.225 vs 0.240 Annual Core CPI 3.2 vs 3.3 f'cast, 3.3 prev Bonds were already in stronger territory to st...

Tue, January 14, 9:45 PM

Broad, Negative Momentum is Masking Normal Market Movers - Tue, January 14, 9:45 PM

MBS Recap Broad, Negative Momentum is Masking Normal Market Movers MBS Recap Matth...

Tue, January 14, 5:02 PM

Why Isn't PPI Helping Bonds This Morning? - Tue, January 14, 5:02 PM

The Producer Price Index (PPI) may not be nearly as much of a market mover as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but it has proven capable of producing logical reactions in the past when it's come i...

Tue, January 14, 1:35 PM

Moderate Gains After Sharply Lower PPI - Tue, January 14, 1:35 PM

Core PPI M/M 0.0 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.2 prev Core PPI Y/Y 3.5 vs 3.8 f'cast, 3.5 prev The Producer Price Index came in much lower than expected at the core level and sl...

Mon, January 13, 9:39 PM

Bonds Calmed Down After Early Weakness - Mon, January 13, 9:39 PM

MBS Recap Bonds Calmed Down After Early Weakness MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:38 P...

Mon, January 13, 4:21 PM

MBS Down an Eighth of a Point - Mon, January 13, 4:21 PM

Bonds have been selling gradually so far this morning. 10yr yields are up 3.7bps at 4.802 after being nearly unchanged at the open. MBS were also unchanged in early trading but are now down 5 ...

Mon, January 13, 3:36 PM

Quiet Monday For Data. Bonds Staying on Defense Ahead of Inflation Reports - Mon, January 13, 3:36 PM

After last Friday's jobs report, the evaporation of Fed rate cut probability has been a common refrain. While it's true that there was an obvious shift in both long and short term rate...

Fri, January 10, 8:48 PM

Sizeable, Straightforward Selling Spree - Fri, January 10, 8:48 PM

MBS Recap Sizeable, Straightforward Selling Spree MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:46 ...

Fri, January 10, 6:20 PM

Down a Quarter Point From Post-NFP Highs - Fri, January 10, 6:20 PM

Different lenders may approach this scenario differently depending on when they priced this morning and how conservative the rate sheet was. Bottom line, MBS are down a quarter point from t...

Fri, January 10, 3:16 PM

Highest Yields in Over a Year After Super Strong Jobs Report - Fri, January 10, 3:16 PM

The morning trading is as straightforward as it is unpleasant. Nonfarm payrolls crushed expectations (256k vs 160k f'cast) and the unemployment rate also improved (4.1 vs 4.2). While the Fe...

Fri, January 10, 1:32 PM

Bonds Tanking After Surge in Payroll Growth - Fri, January 10, 1:32 PM

Nonfarm Payrolls 256k vs 160k f'cast, 227k prev Unemployment Rate 4.1 vs 4.2 f'cast, 4.2 prev Bonds are instantly and significantly higher in yield after the obviou...

Thu, January 9, 7:04 PM

No Data, No Volatility - Thu, January 9, 7:04 PM

MBS Recap No Data, No Volatility MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 2:04 PM No...

Thu, January 9, 5:37 PM

MBS Still Positive, But Down an Eighth From Highs - Thu, January 9, 5:37 PM

Trading remains slow, sparse, and mostly inconsequential. MBS are still 1 tick (.03) higher on the day but down an eighth of a point from the AM highs. Lenders who released rate sheet...

Thu, January 9, 4:03 PM

Bonds on Light Duty Ahead of Friday's Jobs Report - Thu, January 9, 4:03 PM

Unless something incredibly interesting happens in the next 3 hours, this morning's commentary will likely be the end-of-day commentary as well. Due to the national day of mourning, bonds w...

Wed, January 8, 8:29 PM

Some Volatility But Broadly Sideways - Wed, January 8, 8:29 PM

MBS Recap Some Volatility But Broadly Sideways MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:27 PM ...

Mike David

Producing Branch Manager

Oklahoma Mortgage Group

P: (918) 361-1550

M: (918) 361-1550

E: mike@omghomeloans.com

www.OklahomaMortgageGroup.com

Read our google reviews

Get Pre-Approved Now

Book a Phone Chat with ...

6666 S Sheridan Rd
suite 102
Tulsa Oklahoma 74133

License:

1619714

Ask Me a Question

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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.