Slightly weaker overnight and little-changed after Durable Goods data. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.8bps at 4.566
Back near weakest levels as stocks rebound. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3.5bps at 4.574
Stronger after 7yr Treasury auction. MBS unchanged. 10yr up 1.6bps at 4.554
Heading out at best levels, MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.2bps at 4.535
Bonds were weaker overnight as markets calmed down a bit after yesterday's DeepSeek frenzy. The 8:20am CME open brought in just a bit of buying, but there's been better selling since the 8:30am Durable Goods data. The -2.2 vs 0.8 f'cast might look like a good outcome for bonds at first glance, but Durable Goods is a notoriously volatile report at the headline level due to major expenditures in certain sectors. That's why there's a separate component line item for "non-defense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft." Think of it like "core" durable goods. Bottom line, the core is offsetting the headline, and causing bonds to move back to the weaker opening levels.