Recent Gains Could Simply Be a Correction. Data Will Decide
Recent Gains Could Simply Be a Correction. Data Will Decide
Bonds may have moved into stronger territory today (near the best levels in 2 weeks), but that might not have happened without a much bigger rally in European bond markets following the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement. The timing made it hard to sort out those impacts from the potential influence of internal components of the GDP and Durable Goods data. Either way, bonds have effectively corrected the overdone selling spree from late last week and should shift to a more data-dependent stance from here.
Recent Gains Could Simply Be a Correction. Data Will Decide.mp4
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Oct 27 | |||||
| 8:15AM | ECB Statement | ||||
| 8:30AM | Q3 GDP Advance (%) | Q3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | -0.6 |
| 8:30AM | Sep Durable goods (%) | Sep | 0.4 | 0.6 | -0.2 |
| 8:30AM | Sep Core CapEx (%) | Sep | -0.7 | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| 8:30AM | w/e Continued Claims (ml) | w/e | 1.438 | 1.388 | 1.385 |
| 8:30AM | w/e Jobless Claims (k) | w/e | 217 | 220 | 214 |
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 35 | |||
| Friday, Oct 28 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Q3 Employment costs (%) | Q3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| 8:30AM | Sep Outlays (consumer spending) (%) | Sep | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 8:30AM | Sep Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Sep | 5.1 | 5.2 | 4.9 |
| 10:00AM | Sep Pending Sales Index | Sep | 79.5 | 88.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Oct Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Oct | 5.0 | 5.1 | |
| 10:00AM | Oct Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Oct | 59.9 | 59.8 | 59.8 |
| 10:00AM | Oct Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Oct | 2.9 | 2.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Pending Home Sales (%) | Sep | -10.2 | -5.0 | -2.0 |
