9/29 5:32:00PM EST : Delayed Data : National Average Rates

Recent Gains Could Simply Be a Correction. Data Will Decide

Recent Gains Could Simply Be a Correction. Data Will Decide

Bonds may have moved into stronger territory today (near the best levels in 2 weeks), but that might not have happened without a much bigger rally in European bond markets following the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement.  The timing made it hard to sort out those impacts from the potential influence of internal components of the GDP and Durable Goods data.  Either way, bonds have effectively corrected the overdone selling spree from late last week and should shift to a more data-dependent stance from here.

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Recent Gains Could Simply Be a Correction. Data Will Decide.mp4

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0 101.08 +0.39 10YR 3.925% -0.082% 10/27/2022 5:00PM EST
On most recent occasions, when stocks are selling aggressively, bonds are also hurting because both are responding to changes in the monetary policy outlook.  This afternoon is an exception as stocks get hit by earnings.  In this cases, stock selling has had its normal tendency to spill over to bond buying. 10yr yields are now down more than 10bps to new lows of 3.906. MBS have pulled back up from their late-day swoon and are now back in line with the sideways...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 7.04% -0.03% 15YR Fixed 6.44% -0.06% 10/27/2022
As of yesterday, mortgage rates were already on their best winning streak since late July in terms of consecutive days spent moving lower.  With today's addition to the trend, we'd now need to go much farther back into the past to see another 5 day winning streak.   All that having been said, the length of the winning streak doesn't matter too much.  It certainly isn't the largest drop in rates over a 5 day time frame (late July saw more movement in fe...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Oct 27
8:15AM ECB Statement
8:30AM Q3 GDP Advance (%) Q3 2.6 2.4 -0.6
8:30AM Sep Durable goods (%) Sep 0.4 0.6 -0.2
8:30AM Sep Core CapEx (%) Sep -0.7 0.5 1.4
8:30AM Sep Durables ex-transport (%) Sep -0.5 0.2 0.3
8:30AM Sep Durables ex-defense mm (%) Sep 1.4 -0.8
8:30AM w/e Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) w/e 219.00 212.25
8:30AM w/e Continued Claims (ml) w/e 1.438 1.388 1.385
8:30AM w/e Jobless Claims (k) w/e 217 220 214
10:30AM w/e Nat gas-EIA, change bcf w/e 52 59 111
11:00AM Oct KC Fed manufacturing Oct -22 2
1:00PM 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) 35
Friday, Oct 28
8:30AM Q3 Employment Wages qq (%) Q3 1.3 1.4
8:30AM Q3 Employment Benefits qq (%) Q3 1.0 1.2
8:30AM Q3 Employment costs (%) Q3 1.2 1.2 1.3
8:30AM Sep Personal Income (%) Sep 0.4 0.3 0.3
8:30AM Sep Outlays (consumer spending) (%) Sep 0.6 0.4 0.4
8:30AM Sep PCE price index mm (%) Sep 0.3 0.3
8:30AM Sep Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) Sep 0.3 0.1
8:30AM Sep PCE (y/y) (%) Sep 6.2 6.2
8:30AM Sep Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) Sep 5.1 5.2 4.9
8:30AM Sep Core PCE (m/m) (%) Sep 0.5 0.5 0.6
9:00AM Sep Dallas Fed PCE (%) Sep 4.3 6.0
10:00AM Sep Pending Sales Index Sep 79.5 88.4
10:00AM Oct Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Oct 5.0 5.1
10:00AM Oct Consumer Sentiment (ip) Oct 59.9 59.8 59.8
10:00AM Oct Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Oct 2.9 2.9
10:00AM Sep Pending Home Sales (%) Sep -10.2 -5.0 -2.0
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There's no way to sugarcoat the situation in the bond market and, by extension, the mortgage and housing markets. Rates have risen at a nearly unprecedented pace, ushering in one of the quickest cooldowns on record. One of the only ways to find hope in this environment is to imagine that bad news is finite. To be clear, "bad news" is relative, because it has been the resilience of the domestic ... READ MORE