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What Does Today's Rally Mean For The Bigger Picture?
What Does Today's Rally Mean For The Bigger Picture?
Bonds began the day in flat to slightly weaker territory, but that didn't last long. A gigantic wave of selling in equities markets grew to tsunami-like proportions as the day progressed. Unlike many other examples of days where stocks fall 3-4% by noon, there was no major attempt to recover before the 4pm NYSE close. It was very clear throughout the day that the progressively larger selling spree in stocks was responsible for the progressively larger rally in bonds. With oil prices following the same path, "global growth concern" was the topic of the day. With all this being the case, today's bond rally, in and of itself, means very little for the bigger picture because its existence is predicated on ongoing stock losses.
Initially weaker overnight. Big rally in Europe. Stocks sliding again (not as much as y'day so far). Bonds liking the weak Philly Fed data. 10yr down over 9 bps at 2.79. MBS up 3/8ths of a point.
What Does Today's Rally Mean For The Bigger Picture?
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, May 19 | |||||
| 8:30AM | May Philly Fed Business Index | May | 2.6 | 16.0 | 17.6 |
| 8:30AM | w/e Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | w/e | 199.50 | 192.75 | |
| 8:30AM | w/e Continued Claims (ml) | w/e | 1.317 | 1.320 | 1.343 |
| 8:30AM | w/e Jobless Claims (k) | w/e | 218 | 200 | 203 |
| 10:00AM | Apr Existing home sales (ml) | Apr | 5.65 | 5.77 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Apr | -2.7 | ||
| 10:00AM | Apr Leading index chg mm (%) | Apr | 0.0 | 0.3 | |
| 10:30AM | w/e Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | w/e | 87 | 76 | |
| 1:00PM | 10-yr TIPS Auction (bl) | 14 | |||
| Friday, May 20 | |||||
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