Quick Rally Toward Key Resistance Just Before The Open
Quick Rally Toward Key Resistance Just Before The Open
Bonds spend most of the night trading sideways to slightly stronger. Oil prices fell sharply, making it tempting to conclude that's the reason that 10yr yields were almost 7bps lower at 9am. But more than half of the oil rally was over before Treasuries began rallying. There was an obvious and uncommonly large volume spike in Treasuries around 7:50am ET. Oil was still falling at the time. It likely contributed to the bond buying, but not enough that we'd give it primary credit. The nature of the Treasury rally is highly suggestive of massive accounts partaking in quarter-end rebalancing (just a bigger version of month-end trading). Despite the surge, yields are only now getting back to the same old 4.42% technical resistance level that's blocked further progress since late May.
Mostly Sideways and Lacking Inspiration
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jun 24 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jun/19 Mortgage Market Index | Jun/19 | 272.1 | 269.5 | |
| 7:00AM | Jun/19 MBA Refi Index | Jun/19 | 834.2 | 810.2 | |
| 7:00AM | Jun/19 MBA Purchase Index | Jun/19 | 169.7 | 170.8 | |
| 8:30AM | May Building Permits (ml) | May | 1.41M | 1.413M | 1.423M |
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months (%) | $3.319 billion | |||
| 10:00AM | May New Home Sales (ml) | May | 0.58M | 0.64M | 0.622M |
| 10:00AM | May New Home Sales (%) (%) | May | -7.3% | -6.2% | |
| 10:30AM | Jun/19 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jun/19 | -6.088M | -4.5M | -8.262M |
| 11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 28 | |||
| 11:30AM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.089% | |||
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 4:00PM | Fed Bank Stress Test Results | ||||
| Thursday, Jun 25 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jun/13 Continued Claims (k) | Jun/13 | 1800K | 1810K | |
| 8:30AM | Jun/20 Jobless Claims (k) | Jun/20 | 225K | 226K | |
| 8:30AM | May PCE prices (m/m) (%) | May | 0.5% | 0.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q1 | 1.5% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP (%) | Q1 | 1.6% | 0.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 Corporate profits (% ) | Q1 | -0.4% | 5.7% | |
| 8:30AM | May PCE (y/y) (%) | May | 4.1% | 3.8% | |
| 8:30AM | May Durable goods (%) | May | -4.5% | 7.9% | |
| 8:30AM | May Core PCE (y/y) (%) | May | 3.4% | 3.3% | |
| 8:30AM | May Core CapEx (%) | May | 0.6% | -1.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q1 | 4.5% | 2.9% | |
| 8:30AM | May Core PCE (m/m) (%) | May | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q1 | 4.4% | 2.7% | |
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| 3:40PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 3:40PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 6:30PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 6:30PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||