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Calmer Start. Uneventful ADP. Waiting on ISM
Calmer Start. Uneventful ADP. Waiting on ISM
After 2 days of much higher volatility at the open, bonds are roughly unchanged so far this morning and the overnight session was noticeably calmer. Today's big ticket data includes ADP Employment and ISM Services. The former is already out (63k vs 50k, with a negative revision about the same size as the beat) and not moving markets. With that, we wait for ISM Services at 10am ET--arguably a much more capable market mover on average. With 10s trading in the 4.07's currently, 4.10% increasingly looks like a technical ceiling.
flat all morning. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr unchanged at 4.07
still flat with MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 0.9bps at 4.077
Bonds Erase Most of The AM Losses
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Mar 04 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Feb/27 MBA Refi Index | Feb/27 | 1637.5 | 1432.9 | |
| 7:00AM | Feb/27 MBA Purchase Index | Feb/27 | 158.9 | 149.7 | |
| 7:00AM | Feb/27 Mortgage Market Index | Feb/27 | 377.5 | 340.2 | |
| 8:15AM | Feb ADP jobs (k) | Feb | 63K | 50K | 22K |
| 9:45AM | Feb S&P Global Composite PMI | Feb | 51.9 | 52.3 | 53 |
| 9:45AM | Feb S&P Global Services PMI | Feb | 51.7 | 52.3 | 52.7 |
| 10:00AM | Feb ISM Services Employment | Feb | 51.8 | 50.3 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb ISM Biz Activity | Feb | 59.9 | 57.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb ISM Services Prices | Feb | 63.0 | 66.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb ISM Services New Orders | Feb | 58.6 | 53.1 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb ISM N-Mfg PMI | Feb | 56.1 | 53.5 | 53.8 |
| 10:30AM | Feb/27 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Feb/27 | 3.475M | 2.3M | 15.989M |
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
| Thursday, Mar 05 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Feb Challenger layoffs (k) | Feb | 108.435K | ||
| 8:30AM | Jan Import prices mm (%) | Jan | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Feb/28 Jobless Claims (k) | Feb/28 | 215K | 212K | |
| 8:30AM | Feb/21 Continued Claims (k) | Feb/21 | 1850K | 1833K | |
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