Bond Momentum Continues Ignoring Data

Bond Momentum Continues Ignoring Data

On multiple recent occasions, we've seen bonds make a moderate move on days with important economic reports, but not in response to those economic reports. Thursday was the latest example. The 8:30am jobless claims data was undoubtedly a tradeable event based on the big volume spike at the time, but the higher yields were already in place by the time the data came out. Moreover, there wasn't much of a response afterward. Bonds spent the rest of the day drifting sideways to slightly weaker, but still very much in the prevailing pre-Thanksgiving range (i.e. 10yr yields 4.05-4.17).

Market Movement Recap
08:53 AM

moderately weaker overnight with additional temporary selling after jobless claims data. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 3bps at 4.093

01:59 PM

10yr yields are up 4bps at 4.104. MBS down 5 ticks (.16). 

03:02 PM

MBS are now down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 4.7bps at 4.11

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Bond Momentum Continues Ignoring Data

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.62 -0.16 10YR 4.100% +0.036% 12/4/2025 4:51PM EST
MBS are now down 6 ticks (.19) on the day and at least 5 ticks (.16) from most lenders' rate sheet print times. A few lenders have already repriced and at least a few more will follow.  10yr yields are up 4.6bps on the day to 4.110.  Despite the weaker levels, selling has been boring and gradual throughout the session.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.24% +0.01% 15YR Fixed 5.76% +0.01% 12/4/2025
Today's mortgage rates a just a hair higher than yesterday's and although yesterday's rates were reasonably close to last Friday's, they were still definitely higher. That last assertion is at odds with some of the mortgage rate media coverage you may encounter today, but there's a logical reason. Freddie Mac releases its weekly mortgage rate survey every Thursday. It consists of an average of the rates from each of the previous 5 business days (Thursday through Wednesday...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Dec 04
7:30AM Nov Challenger layoffs (k) Nov 71.321K 153.074K
8:30AM Oct Trade Gap (on hold, shutdown) (bl) Oct
8:30AM Nov/22 Continued Claims (k) Nov/22 1939K 1960K 1960K
8:30AM Nov/29 Jobless Claims (k) Nov/29 191K 220K 216K
10:00AM Sep Factory orders mm (%) Sep 0.2% 0.5% 1.4%
12:00PM Fed Bowman Speech
Friday, Dec 05
10:00AM Sep Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) Sep 2.9% 2.9%
10:00AM Sep Personal Income (%) Sep 0.4% 0.4%
10:00AM Sep Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) Sep 0.4% 0.6%
10:00AM Sep Core PCE (m/m) (%) Sep 0.2% 0.2%
10:00AM Dec U Mich conditions Dec 51.3 51.1
10:00AM Dec Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Dec 4.5%
10:00AM Dec Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Dec 3.4%
10:00AM Oct Factory orders mm (%) Oct 0.2%
10:00AM Dec Consumer Sentiment (ip) Dec 52 51.0
3:00PM Oct Consumer credit (bl) Oct $10.5B $13.09B
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This week marked the return of delayed economic data from the government shutdown. Specifically, we received the important jobs report that was set to come out in early October. While this is September's data, and thus a bit stale, it was nonetheless responsible for the biggest volume spike in the bond market since the last Fed meeting. Such is the power of the jobs report relative to other econom... READ MORE