Bonds Turn Red Overnight on War Headlines

Bonds Turn Red Overnight on War Headlines

Bonds spent most of the overnight session moving sideways to slightly stronger, but everything changed at 6:20am. That's when news broke regarding a statement from Iran's Khamenei saying that Uranium should not leave the country. Given that this is a sticking point for peace negotiations, the response in bonds/oil/etc was immediate and clear. Yields rose from 4.575 to 4.62 and continue to trade near there ever since.

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Full Reversal and Then Some

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0
97.15
-0.19 
10YR TREASURY
4.614
+0.026 
5/21/2026 11:34AM EST
Bonds spent most of the overnight session moving sideways to slightly stronger, but everything changed at 6:20am. That's when news broke regarding a statement from Iran's Khamenei saying that Uranium should not leave the country. Given that this is a sticking point for peace negotiations, the response in bonds/oil/etc was immediate and clear. Yields rose from 4.575 to 4.62 and continue to trade near there ever since. While there was a decent little chunk of line ite...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.70%
+0.03% 
15YR Fixed
6.24%
+0.02% 
5/21/2026
Wednesday brought some much-needed relief for the mortgage market after rates surged to new 9 month highs of 6.75% yesterday. Whereas that rate spike was decoupled from the prevailing narrative of war-related headlines, today's recovery was quite the opposite. Newswires came out shortly after 10am ET that suggested the U.S. and Iran are nearing a final draft of a peace agreement. While such news has been prone to correction and revision, the market was nonetheless willing t...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, May 21
8:30AM May/09 Continued Claims (k) May/09 1782K 1790K 1782K
8:30AM May Philly Fed Prices Paid May 47.90 59.30
8:30AM May/16 Jobless Claims (k) May/16 209K 210K 211K
8:30AM Apr Building Permits (ml) Apr 1.442M 1.39M 1.363M
8:30AM Apr Housing starts number mm (ml) Apr 1.465M 1.41M 1.502M
8:30AM May Philly Fed Business Index May -0.4 18 26.7
9:45AM May S&P Global Composite PMI May 51.7 51.7
9:45AM May S&P Global Services PMI May 50.9 51.1 51.0
9:45AM May S&P Global Manuf. PMI May 55.3 53.8 54.5
1:00PM 10-yr Note Auction (bl) 19
Friday, May 22
10:00AM May Consumer Sentiment (ip) May 48.2 49.8
10:00AM May U Mich conditions May 47.8 52.5
10:00AM May Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) May 3.4% 3.5%
10:00AM May Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) May 4.5% 4.7%
10:00AM Apr CB Leading Index MoM (%) Apr -0.2% -0.6%
11:00AM Fed Waller Speech