In-Range PM Weakness

In-Range PM Weakness

Viewed under a microscope, it may have seemed like today was a relatively volatile session for the bond market.  Weaker opening levels in Treasuries gave way to a mid-day rally that nearly got rates back to unchanged levels. But the afternoon saw steady selling that took bonds to their weakest levels of the session. In the bigger picture, this was a non-event as it leaves trading levels well within the prevailing range. Additionally, there were no compelling justifications for the move unless we want to continue to force the narrative of higher stocks prices leading to higher bond yields (where the correlation has been anything but reliable).

Market Movement Recap
08:58 AM

Steadily but modestly weaker overnight. MBS down only 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.05

11:31 AM

MBS unchanged and 10yr up less than 1bp at 4.042

01:46 PM

MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 0.6bps at 4.041

Latest Video Analysis

In-Range PM Weakness

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 100.29 -0.07 10YR 4.047% +0.012% 2/24/2026 11:24PM EST
Bonds have been selling slowly and steadily in the PM hours.  While the pace of weakness isn't extreme, MBS are now down an eighth of a point from the highs of the day.  Fortunately, prices were a bit lower during rate sheet print times--a fact that provides some insulation against reprice risk.  Nonetheless, any time prices drop by an eighth or more during the day, there's at least some small risk of negative reprices from the most jumpy lenders.  MBs ...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.00% +0.01% 15YR Fixed 5.62% +0.04% 2/25/2026
It may not be as glamorous as being able to say mortgage rates are "in the 5s," but at 6.00%, today's MND rate index is a mere 0.01% higher than yesterday's multi-year low.  For all practical purposes, this means the average borrower will see almost exactly the same rates as yesterday.  In many cases, the quotes will be exactly the same.  There were no big ticket market movers on the econ calendar and no major headlines that caused any appreciable volatilit...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Feb 25
7:00AM Feb/20 MBA Purchase Index Feb/20 149.7 157.1
7:00AM Feb/20 MBA Refi Index Feb/20 1432.9 1375.9
7:00AM Feb/20 Mortgage Market Index Feb/20 340.2 339.0
9:35AM Fed Barkin Speech
10:30AM Feb/20 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Feb/20 15.989M 1.8M -9.014M
11:30AM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 28
11:30AM 2-Year FRN Auction (%) 0.099% 0.099%
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 70
1:20PM Fed Musalem Speech
Thursday, Feb 26
8:30AM Feb/14 Continued Claims (k) Feb/14 1860K 1869K
8:30AM Feb/21 Jobless Claims (k) Feb/21 215K 206K
10:00AM Fed Bowman Speech
1:00PM 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) 44
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In addition to being shortened by Monday's holiday, this week's economic data didn't spark any big reactions in the bond market. Even after The Supreme Court ruled against certain recently-applied tariffs, rates managed to end the week right in line with the lowest levels in more than 3 years. The bond market dictates interest rates, and the tariff news was the biggest event of the week fo... READ MORE