Sideways and Slightly Stronger

Sideways and Slightly Stronger

It was a rather uneventful day with bonds holding sideways in a relatively narrow range after a modest overnight improvement. Intraday correlation with oil prices was fairly poor in the 8-10am window, but generally well-behaved otherwise. Short-end rates (2yr and shorter) were slightly higher on the day, and experienced some earlier volatility surround Fed's Goolsbee's comments on inflation and the rate path. The biggest takeaway there was that the Fed is attempting to assess supply shock inflation versus demand-driven inflation with Goolsbee saying he's hearing reports and seeing some indications of the latter (which implies a higher Fed Funds Rate outlook). 

Latest Video Analysis

Sideways and Slightly Stronger

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0
99.80
+0.11 
10YR TREASURY
4.968
-0.025 
9/21/2026 1:55PM EST
While the Fed may have requested a majority of the market's attention last week, oil prices were saying "ahem... over here." Now this morning, the post-Fed trade is even farther in the rearview and oil is offering even louder reminders with the price per barrel now under $93 after cresting $106 last Tuesday. There is no big-ticket econ data on tap all week, and especially not today or tomorrow. Multiple Fed officials are speaking, but we're not sure what they could say t...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
7.19%
-0.01% 
15YR Fixed
6.83%
+0.00% 
9/21/2026
It was a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates to start the new week. The underlying bond market was slightly stronger. This suggests slightly lower interest rates . The average mortgage lender lowered top-tier 30yr fixed rates by 0.01% compared to Friday.  Underlying motivation for the bond market can mostly be attributed to lower oil prices, which have been a common source of intraday inspiration for better or worse. With today's drop, the average lender rema...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Sep 21
6:30AM Fed Goolsbee Speech
8:00PM UN General Assembly (%)
Tuesday, Sep 22
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 16.25K
10:05AM Fed Williams Speech
10:20AM Fed Jefferson Speech
11:30AM 6-Week Bill Auction (%) 3.850%
1:00PM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 69
1:00PM Fed Barkin Speech
8:00PM UN General Assembly (%)