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Oil and Waller Double Whammy
Oil and Waller Double Whammy
Inflation concern is back on the menu for the bond market. Part of the concern is being fueled by fuel prices as the Iran war seems to be back on. We already spent most of last week tracking the reconnection between bond yields and oil prices. And while today would technically fit that narrative if you don't use a microscope, the afternoon selling happened in bonds well before the afternoon surge in oil prices. Credit for that goes to comments from Fed Governor Waller who spoke plainly about inflation risks and the possibility that the Fed could consider a hike in 2 weeks if incoming inflation data is higher than expected. Bonds aren't quite back to the their weakest levels from mid-May, but mortgage rates matched May's high after today's mid-day reprices.
Oil and Waller Double Whammy
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Jul 13 | |||||
| 5:25AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 12:30PM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Jun Federal budget (bl) | Jun | $-120B | $-132.8B | $-293B |
| Tuesday, Jul 14 | |||||
| 6:00AM | Jun NFIB Business Optimism Index | Jun | 95.6 | 95.3 | |
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 21.0K | |||
| 8:30AM | Jun y/y CORE CPI (%) | Jun | 2.9% | 2.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Jun y/y Headline CPI (%) | Jun | 3.8% | 4.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Jun m/m CORE CPI (%) | Jun | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Jun m/m Headline CPI (%) | Jun | -0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Fed Chair Warsh Testimony | ||||
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.635% | |||
| 12:40PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 1:30PM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| 2:55PM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
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