|
|
|
Beware The Token Recovery Potential
Beware The Token Recovery Potential
While there's no way to know exactly when it will happen, there's always some point at the end of an epic sell-off where prices have dropped enough to attract buyers and sellers have had their fill. A technician might simply say bonds were so oversold that they couldn't sell anymore, but such conclusions are typically made in hindsight. It's important to understand that these sorts of bounces can look big and meaningful at first, but may prove to be nothing more than temporary. Today is already at risk of providing an example.
Token recovery overnight, no reaction to Durable Goods, and now selling off a bit as bonds follow UK markets. 10yr still down 6.5bps at 3.864 and MBS up 11 ticks (.34), but down more than a quarter point from the highs.
Gains mostly gone now with yields led higher by a sell-off in EU bonds. MBS down 5/8ths intraday and up only 6 ticks (.19) from y'day. 10yr yields down only 3bps after being down more than 12bps at the best levels.
Why Do US Rates Suddenly Care About The UK?
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Sep 27 | |||||
| 8:00AM | Aug Build permits R chg mm (%) | Aug | -8.5 | -10.0 | |
| 8:00AM | Aug Build permits R numbr mm (ml) | Aug | 1.542 | 1.517 | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Durables ex-defense mm (%) | Aug | -0.9 | 1.1 | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Durables ex-transport (%) | Aug | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 8:30AM | Aug Durable goods (%) | Aug | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.1 |
| 8:30AM | Aug Core CapEx (%) | Aug | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| 8:55AM | w/e Redbook yy (%) | w/e | 11.0 | 10.5 | |
| 9:00AM | Jul CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) | Jul | -0.8 | 0.4 | |
| 9:00AM | Jul Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) | Jul | +16.1 | 17.0 | 18.6 |
| 9:00AM | Jul CaseShiller Home Prices m/m (%) | Jul | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| 9:00AM | Jul FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) | Jul | 13.9 | 16.2 | |
| 9:00AM | Jul FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) | Jul | -0.6 | 0.1 | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Rich Fed, services index | Sep | 0 | -12 | |
| 10:00AM | Aug New Home Sales (ml) | Aug | 0.685 | 0.500 | 0.511 |
| 10:00AM | Sep Rich Fed comp. index | Sep | 0 | -8 | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Consumer confidence | Sep | 108.0 | 104.5 | 103.2 |
| 10:00AM | Sep Rich Fed manuf shipments | Sep | 14 | -8 | |
| 10:00AM | Aug New Home Sales (%) (%) | Aug | 28.8 | -12.6 | |
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| Wednesday, Sep 28 | |||||
| 7:00AM | w/e Mortgage Market Index | w/e | 264.7 | ||
| 7:00AM | w/e MBA Purchase Index | w/e | 200.1 | ||
| 7:00AM | w/e MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | w/e | 6.25 | ||
| 7:00AM | w/e MBA Refi Index | w/e | 588.1 | ||
| 10:00AM | Aug Pending Sales Index | Aug | 89.8 | ||
| 10:00AM | Aug Pending Home Sales (%) | Aug | -1.4 | -1.0 | |
| 10:30AM | w/e Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | w/e | 0.333 | 1.142 | |
| 10:30AM | w/e Gasoline Inventory (ml) | w/e | 0.400 | 1.569 | |
| 10:30AM | w/e Petroleum Distillate Inventory (ml) | w/e | -1.267 | 1.231 | |
| 11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 22 | |||
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 36 | |||
|
|
|
|
