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Big Intraday Round Trip For Bonds; Williams Helped
Big Intraday Round Trip For Bonds; Williams Helped
Bonds spent the first half of the day pressing into even weaker levels in spite of a respectable drop in oil prices. Data and headlines had little to no bearing on the selling. If anything, the biggest scapegoat is the combination of bearish momentum and quarter-end trading (something we're extrapolating from the mirror-image correlation between stocks and bond yields). 10yr yields crested 5.29% at their weakest levels--right in line with the only obvious nearby technical level from 2007. Bearishness reversed at 2pm when Fed Gov Williams said he didn't see a need for urgency after the September rate hike. Fed Funds Futures rallied quickly and the entire yield curve (apart from 30yr bonds) ended up making it back to positive territory by the close.
Big Intraday Round Trip For Bonds
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Sep 30 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Sep/25 MBA Purchase Index | Sep/25 | 154.9 | ||
| 7:00AM | Sep/25 Mortgage Market Index | Sep/25 | 227.3 | ||
| 7:00AM | Sep/25 MBA Refi Index | Sep/25 | 611.0 | ||
| 8:15AM | Sep ADP jobs (k) | Sep | 70K | 38K | |
| 8:30AM | Aug PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Aug | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Q2 GDP (%) | Q2 | 1.5% | 2.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Q2 Corporate profits (% ) | Q2 | 8.2% | 0.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Aug | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Q2 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q2 | 3.6% | 4.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Q2 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q2 | 5.3% | 4.6% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug PCE (y/y) (%) | Aug | 3.7% | 3.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Q2 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q2 | 2.2% | 1.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Aug | 3.3% | 3.3% | |
| 9:45AM | Sep Chicago PMI | Sep | 51.2 | 47.1 | |
| 10:30AM | Sep/25 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Sep/25 | -0.7M | 2.969M | |
| 1:30PM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 5:10PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 6:00PM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| Thursday, Oct 01 | |||||
| 5:30AM | Sep Challenger layoffs (k) | Sep | 52.881K | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep/19 Continued Claims (k) | Sep/19 | 1730K | 1719K | |
| 8:30AM | Sep/26 Jobless Claims (k) | Sep/26 | 200K | 197K | |
| 9:05AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 9:05AM | Fed Schmid Speech | ||||
| 9:05AM | Fed Collins Speech | ||||
| 9:45AM | Sep S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Sep | 57.0 | 53.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Sep ISM Manufacturing Employment | Sep | 51.2 | ||
| 10:00AM | Sep ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Sep | 72.3 | 71.1 | |
| 10:00AM | Sep ISM Manufacturing PMI | Sep | 55 | 54.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Aug Construction spending (%) | Aug | 0% | -0.5% | |
| 3:30PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 6:45PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
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