Some Signs of Resilience
Some Signs of Resilience
There were two separate positive developments for bonds this morning. The most obvious and actionable example was series of comments from Fed's Waller in which he basically said he wasn't interested in hiking rates right now unless inflation data surprised to the downside. Fed funds futures and bonds reacted instantly with 10yr yields ultimately dropping 2-3bps before bouncing. The less obvious example was simply the general phenomenon of bonds holding roughly sideways overnight even though oil prices moved clearly higher. This could signal some innate resilience and/or dip-buying mentality at or above the 4.80% level in 10yr yields.
Relatively Drama-Free Day
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Sep 03 | |||||
| 5:30AM | Aug Challenger layoffs (k) | Aug | 52.881K | 33.429K | |
| 8:30AM | Aug/22 Continued Claims (k) | Aug/22 | 1779K | 1778K | |
| 8:30AM | Q2 Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final | Q2 | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| 8:30AM | Aug/29 Jobless Claims (k) | Aug/29 | 206K | 205K | 203K |
| 8:30AM | Jul Trade Gap (bl) | Jul | $-88.6B | $-90B | $-73.3B |
| 8:30AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 9:45AM | Aug S&P Global Composite PMI | Aug | 56.0 | 56.0 | 54.5 |
| 9:45AM | Aug S&P Global Services PMI | Aug | 56.5 | 56.8 | 54.6 |
| 10:00AM | Aug ISM Services Prices | Aug | 72.6 | 70.3 | |
| 10:00AM | Aug ISM Biz Activity | Aug | 61.7 | 59.1 | |
| 10:00AM | Aug ISM Services Employment | Aug | 47.8 | 47.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Aug ISM N-Mfg PMI | Aug | 55.4 | 54.3 | 54.1 |
| 10:00AM | Aug ISM Services New Orders | Aug | 60.9 | 57.2 | |
| 3:00PM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| Friday, Sep 04 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Aug Average earnings mm (%) | Aug | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Aug | 56K | -23K | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Unemployment rate mm (%) | Aug | 4.1% | 4.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Participation Rate | Aug | 61.4% | ||