In-Range PM Weakness
In-Range PM Weakness
Viewed under a microscope, it may have seemed like today was a relatively volatile session for the bond market. Weaker opening levels in Treasuries gave way to a mid-day rally that nearly got rates back to unchanged levels. But the afternoon saw steady selling that took bonds to their weakest levels of the session. In the bigger picture, this was a non-event as it leaves trading levels well within the prevailing range. Additionally, there were no compelling justifications for the move unless we want to continue to force the narrative of higher stocks prices leading to higher bond yields (where the correlation has been anything but reliable).
Steadily but modestly weaker overnight. MBS down only 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.05
MBS unchanged and 10yr up less than 1bp at 4.042
MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 0.6bps at 4.041
In-Range PM Weakness
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Feb 25 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Feb/20 MBA Purchase Index | Feb/20 | 149.7 | 157.1 | |
| 7:00AM | Feb/20 MBA Refi Index | Feb/20 | 1432.9 | 1375.9 | |
| 7:00AM | Feb/20 Mortgage Market Index | Feb/20 | 340.2 | 339.0 | |
| 9:35AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | Feb/20 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Feb/20 | 15.989M | 1.8M | -9.014M |
| 11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 28 | |||
| 11:30AM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.099% | 0.099% | ||
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 1:20PM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| Thursday, Feb 26 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Feb/14 Continued Claims (k) | Feb/14 | 1860K | 1869K | |
| 8:30AM | Feb/21 Jobless Claims (k) | Feb/21 | 215K | 206K | |
| 10:00AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||