Some Signs of Resilience

Some Signs of Resilience

There were two separate positive developments for bonds this morning. The most obvious and actionable example was series of comments from Fed's Waller in which he basically said he wasn't interested in hiking rates right now unless inflation data surprised to the downside. Fed funds futures and bonds reacted instantly with 10yr yields ultimately dropping 2-3bps before bouncing. The less obvious example was simply the general phenomenon of bonds holding roughly sideways overnight even though oil prices moved clearly higher. This could signal some innate resilience and/or dip-buying mentality at or above the 4.80% level in 10yr yields. 

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Relatively Drama-Free Day

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5
99.03
+0.22 
10YR TREASURY
4.743
-0.037 
9/3/2026 12:15PM EST
There were two separate positive developments for bonds this morning. The most obvious and actionable example was series of comments from Fed's Waller in which he basically said he wasn't interested in hiking rates right now unless inflation data surprised to the downside. Fed funds futures and bonds reacted instantly with 10yr yields ultimately dropping 2-3bps before bouncing. The less obvious example was simply the general phenomenon of bonds holding roughly sideways overni...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.88%
-0.03% 
15YR Fixed
6.48%
-0.02% 
9/3/2026
First things first: when we reference average, daily, top-tier 30yr fixed rates, it is for an ideal scenario that rarely exists in the wild. The average scenario will always involve slightly higher effective rates (i.e. even if the rate is the same as national averages, it would involve additional upfront costs). As a reminder, our daily rate index accounts for upfront costs whereas Freddie Mac's weekly survey rate does not. MBA's weekly rate survey collects separate answer...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Sep 03
5:30AM Aug Challenger layoffs (k) Aug 52.881K 33.429K
8:30AM Aug/22 Continued Claims (k) Aug/22 1779K 1778K
8:30AM Q2 Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final Q2 1.2% 1.3% 1.3%
8:30AM Aug/29 Jobless Claims (k) Aug/29 206K 205K 203K
8:30AM Jul Trade Gap (bl) Jul $-88.6B $-90B $-73.3B
8:30AM Fed Waller Speech
9:45AM Aug S&P Global Composite PMI Aug 56.0 56.0 54.5
9:45AM Aug S&P Global Services PMI Aug 56.5 56.8 54.6
10:00AM Aug ISM Services Prices Aug 72.6 70.3
10:00AM Aug ISM Biz Activity Aug 61.7 59.1
10:00AM Aug ISM Services Employment Aug 47.8 47.4
10:00AM Aug ISM N-Mfg PMI Aug 55.4 54.3 54.1
10:00AM Aug ISM Services New Orders Aug 60.9 57.2
3:00PM Fed Hammack Speech
Friday, Sep 04
8:30AM Aug Average earnings mm (%) Aug 0.3% 0.1%
8:30AM Aug Non Farm Payrolls (k) Aug 56K -23K
8:30AM Aug Unemployment rate mm (%) Aug 4.1% 4.1%
8:30AM Aug Participation Rate Aug 61.4%