Bleeding Subsides For Now, But Bonds Remain Cautious

Bleeding Subsides For Now, But Bonds Remain Cautious

Tuesday's massive wave of bond-specific weakness still has the analytical community scratching its collective head. Our contacts are either saying nothing or telling us they're just as perplexed. So far this morning, there hasn't been any sort of repeat performance.  Lower oil prices have helped bonds find their footing, but alarmingly, bonds are once again diverging from their correlation with oil in early trading. On the calendar front, the 2pm FOMC Minutes release is the only thing that seems like it might be relevant, but as a reminder, this is just a more detailed account of the meeting that took place 3 weeks ago, and we've heard plenty of Fed speakers clarify their outlook over those 3 weeks. 

Latest Video Analysis

Huge Block Trades Drove Big AM Sell-Off

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0
96.93
+0.12 
10YR TREASURY
4.651
-0.017 
5/20/2026 9:55AM EST
Pretty simple stuff: Around 10:15am:  "The Pakistani army leader may visit Iran tomorrow to announce the final version of the agreement text - Al Hadath, citing Sources." IF THE PAKISTANI ARMY CHIEF DOES NOT GO TO IRAN, HE MAY ANNOUNCE THE COMPLETION OF THE FINAL VERSION OF THE AGREEMENT WITHIN HOURS Then at 11:15am: TRUMP ANNOUNCES US IS IN 'FINAL STAGES' OF NEGOTIATIONS WITH IRAN. Both newswires resulted in clear volume pops and additional rally mom...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.75%
+0.07% 
15YR Fixed
6.25%
+0.13% 
5/19/2026
It was another rough day for the bond market and, thus, for interest rates . Investors aggressively sold bonds in the first 2 hours of trading, taking 10yr Treasury yields to the highest level in more than a year. Mortgage-specific bonds have been doing better versus Treasuries in recent months thanks to increased purchase demand from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. All else equal, higher demand for mortgage bonds = lower rates, relatively. In the current case, it means mortg...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, May 20
7:00AM May/15 Mortgage Market Index May/15 283.5 290.1
7:00AM May/15 MBA Refi Index May/15 920.2 921.1
7:00AM May/15 MBA Purchase Index May/15 170.4 177.7
8:00AM Fed Paulson Speech
10:15AM Fed Barr Speech
10:30AM May/15 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) May/15 -7.864M -2.9M -4.306M
1:00PM 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 16
2:00PM FOMC Minutes
Thursday, May 21
8:30AM May/09 Continued Claims (k) May/09 1790K 1782K
8:30AM May Philly Fed Prices Paid May 59.30
8:30AM May/16 Jobless Claims (k) May/16 210K 211K
8:30AM Apr Building Permits (ml) Apr 1.39M 1.363M
8:30AM Apr Housing starts number mm (ml) Apr 1.41M 1.502M
8:30AM May Philly Fed Business Index May 18 26.7
9:45AM May S&P Global Composite PMI May 51.7
9:45AM May S&P Global Services PMI May 51.1 51.0
9:45AM May S&P Global Manuf. PMI May 53.8 54.5
1:00PM 10-yr Note Auction (bl) 19