|
|
|
Bonds Almost Hold Onto Gains Ahead of Shutdown Uncertainty
Bonds Almost Hold Onto Gains Ahead of Shutdown Uncertainty
Bonds improved moderately overnight, adding onto what was already a fairly substantial recovery yesterday. The morning's PCE data was slightly lower than expected, but bonds didn't seem unequivocally happy about that. There was a modest extension of the rally and then a slow give-back into the PM hours. Trading was very flat near unchanged levels after noon ET. Month/Quarter-end tradeflows are assumed to be underpinning some of the volatility of the past 3 days, as is the uncertainty surrounding the government shutdown. The most direct implication for bonds is that they must navigate the most important data week of the month without the most important data (no jobs report or JOLTS next week due to the shutdown).
Decent Day Despite Late Weakness
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Sep 29 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Aug Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Aug | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% |
| 8:30AM | Aug Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Aug | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Aug PCE price index mm (%) | Aug | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Aug PCE (y/y) (%) | Aug | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% |
| 8:30AM | Aug Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | Aug | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% |
| 8:30AM | Aug Personal Income (%) | Aug | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Aug Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv | Aug | 0.6% | 0% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Goods Trade Balance Adv | Aug | $-84.27B | $-91.18B | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Wholesale inventories mm (%) | Aug | -0.1% | -0.2% | |
| 9:45AM | Sep Chicago PMI | Sep | 44.1 | 47.6 | 48.7 |
| 10:00AM | Sep Michigan Consumer Expectations Final | Sep | 66 | 66.3 | 65.5 |
| 10:00AM | Sep U Mich conditions | Sep | 71.4 | 69.8 | 75.7 |
| 10:00AM | Sep Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Sep | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3% |
| 10:00AM | Sep Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Sep | 68.1 | 67.7 | 69.5 |
| 10:00AM | Sep Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Sep | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% |
| 12:00PM | Sep Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn | Sep | 1.361B | 1.429B | 4.106B |
| 12:00PM | Sep Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy | Sep | 0.268B | 0.242B | 0.796B |
| 12:00PM | Sep Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat | Sep | 1.78B | 1.772B | 0.58B |
| 12:45PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | Sep/29 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Sep/29 | 502 | 507 | |
| 1:00PM | Sep/29 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Sep/29 | 623 | 630 | |
| Monday, Oct 02 | |||||
| 9:45AM | Sep S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Sep | 48.9 | 47.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Sep ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Sep | 48.6 | 48.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Sep ISM Manufacturing New Orders | Sep | 46.8 | ||
| 10:00AM | Aug Construction spending (%) | Aug | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 10:00AM | Sep ISM Manufacturing Employment | Sep | 48.3 | 48.5 | |
| 10:00AM | Sep ISM Manufacturing PMI | Sep | 47.7 | 47.6 | |
| 11:00AM | Fed Chair Powell Speech | ||||
| 11:00AM | Fed Harker Speech | ||||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 71 | |||
| 11:30AM | 3-Month Bill Auction | 5.33% | |||
| 11:30AM | 6-Month Bill Auction | 5.315% | |||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 64 | |||
| 1:00PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 1:30PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 7:30PM | Fed Mester Speech | ||||
|
|
|
|
