No Whammies in Wednesday's Data. JOLTS Rescheduled for Thursday

No Whammies in Wednesday's Data. JOLTS Rescheduled for Thursday

With the big jobs report on hold until next Wednesday, this morning's ADP/ISM duo had to do most of the week's heavy lifting in terms of important econ data. The response was underwhelming, at best. ADP was a complete non-event, but also fairly close to consensus. ISM was mixed and generally helped bonds hold their ground with yields moving down from highs at 10am. The day's range remained inside yesterday's and there were minimal losses by the 3pm close. The JOLTS data that was scheduled for Tuesday will now be coming out on Thursday morning.

Market Movement Recap
08:32 AM

Modestly stronger overnight with additional gains after AM data.  MBS up almost an eighth and 10yr down 4bps at 4.24

Latest Video Analysis

No Whammies on Wednesday

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.84 +0.12 10YR 4.232% -0.046% 2/5/2026 8:55AM EST
Bonds are largely range-bound and nothing new or interesting is happening this afternoon. That said, MBS have now drifted down to new lows for the day (just barely) with current prices an eighth of a point below mid-day highs. Most lenders priced this morning when MBS were only a hair higher than they are now. Thus, those lenders aren't looking at any serious negative reprice risk. Lenders who repriced for the better, however, could be considering reprices.   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.20% +0.00% 15YR Fixed 5.76% +0.00% 2/4/2026
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate hit its highest levels in 2 weeks yesterday. The caveat was that the range has been very narrow during these 2 weeks. As such, by remaining unchanged versus yesterday, today's rates are part of the same narrow range (6.15-6.20% for MND's index). There were two relevant economic reports this morning as well as an update from the Treasury department regarding borrowing expectations. The latter is important for interest rates bec...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Feb 05
7:30AM Jan Challenger layoffs (k) Jan 108.435K 35.553K
8:30AM Jan/31 Jobless Claims (k) Jan/31 231K 212K 209K
8:30AM Jan/24 Continued Claims (k) Jan/24 1,844K 1850K 1827K
10:00AM Dec USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) Dec 7.2M 7.146M
10:00AM Dec JOLTs Job Quits (ml) Dec 3.161M
10:50AM Fed Bostic Speech
Friday, Feb 06
10:00AM Feb Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Feb 4%
10:00AM Feb U Mich conditions Feb 54.9 55.4
10:00AM Feb Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Feb 3.3%
10:00AM Feb Consumer Sentiment (ip) Feb 55 56.4
12:00PM Fed Jefferson Speech
3:00PM Dec Consumer credit (bl) Dec $8B $4.23B
Read My Latest Newsletter
This week's newsletter is all about context when it comes to economic data and market movement. One point of view may provide a clear takeaway while zooming out completely changes the picture. Let's start with an easy one. The early January mortgage rate rally led to an obvious surge in refinance applications.  Taken together with the mini refi boom in September 2025, things look pretty ac... READ MORE