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Bonds Pouting After Higher PCE
Bonds Pouting After Higher PCE
To be fair, not all of the PCE data was higher than expected, but none of the top line numbers were lower than expected. Core PCE was on target but headline inflation was a tenth of a point above the monthly and annual targets. Traders were apparently positioned for better news as the bond market's immediate response has been moderately quick sell-off. MBS are starting out down more than an eighth and 10yr yields are up more than 2bps from pre-data levels.
Bonds Rally on Peace Deal Hopes
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Aug 26 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Aug/21 MBA Refi Index | Aug/21 | 740.8 | 755.9 | |
| 7:00AM | Aug/21 MBA Purchase Index | Aug/21 | 154.4 | 154.8 | |
| 7:00AM | Aug/21 Mortgage Market Index | Aug/21 | 245.3 | 247.7 | |
| 8:30AM | Q2 Corporate profits (% ) | Q2 | 8.2% | 0.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Q2 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q2 | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% |
| 8:30AM | Jul PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Jul | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Q2 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q2 | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% |
| 8:30AM | Q2 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q2 | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.4% |
| 8:30AM | Jul Durable goods (%) | Jul | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Jul Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Jul | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| 8:30AM | Jul Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Jul | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Jul Core CapEx (%) | Jul | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 8:30AM | Jul PCE (y/y) (%) | Jul | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% |
| 8:30AM | Q2 GDP (%) | Q2 | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% |
| 10:30AM | Aug/21 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Aug/21 | 0.095M | 0.6M | 4.405M |
| 11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 28 | |||
| 11:30AM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.055% | 0.050% | ||
| 11:45AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 8:00PM | Jackson Hole Symposium | ||||
| Thursday, Aug 27 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Aug/22 Jobless Claims (k) | Aug/22 | 208K | 206K | |
| 8:30AM | Aug/15 Continued Claims (k) | Aug/15 | 1790K | 1799K | |
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| 8:00PM | Jackson Hole Symposium | ||||
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