Another Nice Round Trip For Bonds--Especially MBS

Another Nice Round Trip For Bonds--Especially MBS

Nothing new or interesting happened today in terms of underlying events, news, or data. But the price action itself was a different story. While the moves weren't extreme, it was nonetheless notable that bonds lost ground in a very intentional way this morning only to reverse course and make it back to positive territory by the close. Yields are still broadly sideways at long-term highs, but we now have a second straight day having closed near the week's best levels. MBS outperformed Treasuries a bit, and officially turned green by the afternoon even as 10yr yields were a hair higher. It's all somewhat promising, but not conclusive evidence of "more to come." The 3-day weekend may be adding some distortion. Either way next week's data may play a big role in making this week look like a false start or sneak preview.  

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Another Nice Round Trip

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0
98.23
+0.01 
10YR TREASURY
5.243
+0.012 
10/9/2026 3:05PM EST
We won't assume bonds are completely out of the woods today, but we've seen enough strength at this point to avoid panic.  The last alert mentioned bonds were already possibly starting to bounce and that bounce has continued for the past 90 minutes. No particular reason. Volume has been lighter since then, and it's not uncommon for the days before 3 days weekends to see an unofficial early close around lunch time. Technicians and tea-leaf-readers would point out the 2...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
7.48%
-0.02% 
15YR Fixed
7.15%
-0.02% 
10/9/2026
Even though the underlying bond market is in slightly weaker shape today, mortgage rates ended up trickling just a bit lower than yesterday's latest levels. This can happen on occasions when there is a strong rally late in the previous day. Mortgage lenders don't end up passing along all of that improvement in rate sheets and some of them decide to wait for the following day to make the adjustments.  In addition, this morning's slightly weaker bond market performance...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Oct 09
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 30YR
10:00AM Oct Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Oct 3.5% 3.4%
10:00AM Oct Consumer Sentiment (ip) Oct 46.3 47.6 48.1
10:00AM Oct U Mich conditions Oct 44.7 50.5 50.9
10:00AM Oct Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Oct 4.7% 4.6%
4:00PM Fed Collins Speech
Monday, Oct 12
12:00AM Indigenous Peoples’ Day