Surprisingly Big Sell Off Relative to The Inspiration
Surprisingly Big Sell Off Relative to The Inspiration
Bonds ended up selling off somewhat sharply today with the bulk of the blame apparently reserved for the UK/US trade deal. In fact, the pace of the selling wasn't something we would have predicted when the details emerged this morning. This raises questions about what other motivations could be in play. Certainly, the "precedent thesis" is relevant (i.e. what does today's deal imply about how other trade deals may look?). The simplest way to approach it would be to conclude that tariffs will go up enough to increase inflation, but not so much as to hinder growth--both bad for bonds and for the Fed's rate cut prospects.
Surprisingly Big Sell Off Relative to The Inspiration
Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Friday, May 09 | |||||
6:15AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
6:45AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
8:30AM | Fed Kugler Speech | ||||
10:00AM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
11:30AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
11:30AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
7:45PM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
7:45PM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
7:45PM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
Monday, May 12 | |||||
12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
10:25AM | Fed Kugler Speech | ||||
10:30AM | NY Fed Treasury Purchases 4 to 6 yrs (%) | $75 million | |||
12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
2:00PM | Apr Federal budget, $ (bl) | Apr | $-161B |