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Logical Rally After Ceasefire Agreement
Logical Rally After Ceasefire Agreement
The wheels were already in motion by the time yesterday's recap came out, and participants in the MBS Live chat room were already high-fiving as we watched overnight price movement yesterday evening (and also hoping there wouldn't be some counterintuitive head fake). As the domestic session gets underway, things are proceeding very logically with bonds building just a bit on last night's rally and stocks doing the same. Oil prices were the earliest adopters and haven't improved on their initial drop, but they're close enough to the lows (down more than 20% from the highs). There's no big ticket data on the calendar today, so the gameplan is to babysit the rally and adapt accordingly.
logically stronger overnight and holding gains steadily so far. MBS up almost 3/8ths and 10yr down 5.2bps at 4.244
MBS up 5 ticks (.16) but down a quarter point from highs. 10yr down 2.8bps at 4.268, but up more than 3bps from lows.
No reaction to 10yr auction or Fed minutes. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 2.2bps at 4.274
Wednesday Could Be Entirely Different
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Apr 08 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Apr/03 MBA Refi Index | Apr/03 | 919.9 | 946.4 | |
| 7:00AM | Apr/03 Mortgage Market Index | Apr/03 | 276.0 | 278.3 | |
| 7:00AM | Apr/03 MBA Purchase Index | Apr/03 | 161.1 | 159.4 | |
| 10:30AM | Apr/03 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Apr/03 | 3.081M | 0.7M | 5.451M |
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 39 | |||
| 1:05PM | Fed Daly Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Minutes | ||||
| Thursday, Apr 09 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Apr/04 Jobless Claims (k) | Apr/04 | 210K | 202K | |
| 8:30AM | Mar/28 Continued Claims (k) | Mar/28 | 1840K | 1841K | |
| 8:30AM | Feb PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Feb | 0.4% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q4 | 2.9% | 2.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Feb | 3% | 3.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Feb | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q4 | 2.7% | 2.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Feb PCE (y/y) (%) | Feb | 2.8% | 2.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q4 | 0.4% | 4.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP (%) | Q4 | 0.7% | 4.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Corporate profits (% ) | Q4 | 4.7% | ||
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 22 | |||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.871% | |||
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