Did Japan Sell Treasuries Today?

Did Japan Sell Treasuries Today?

Bonds sold off medium big on Friday in a move that offered little by way of overt explanations. There were reports of "rate checks" in the USD/JPY market--something that CAN precede the selling of U.S. bonds in order to buy JPY. Notably, there were no reports of actual intervention, but sometimes these things aren't revealed until the following trading day. If this explains today's weakness (and to be clear, we're not sure it does), it would be good for the U.S. bond market as it would mean 10yr yields still held under 5% despite added, artificial pressure. Causality investigations aside, we'd focus on the fact that 10yr yields held under 5% (albeit just barely), which is right where they were on the Tuesday afternoon before Fed day. 

Latest Video Analysis

Did Japan Sell Treasuries Today?

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0
99.94
-0.01 
10YR TREASURY
4.936
+0.003 
9/17/2026 9:10PM EST
After Thursday's rather triumphant trading session in the bond market, today's moderate losses may be unpleasant or surprising to some. But they should be neither. Thursday was a bit exuberant in a good way, and Fridays often see position squaring. A bit of a pull-back is not only survivable but arguably more logical this morning, especially with oil prices being modestly higher. Bottom line: if MBS manage to hold this line without losing much more than a quarter point, ...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
7.20%
+0.01% 
15YR Fixed
6.83%
+0.02% 
9/18/2026
We'd be the first to remind you that mortgage rates are primarily determined by trading levels in the bond market--specifically those for mortgage-backed securities (MBS). That said, there are days where rates don't do exactly what MBS suggest. Today was one of them. According to the bond market, mortgage rates should have been much higher than they were yesterday. As it stands, the average lender was just barely higher.  The discrepancy comes down to the volatilit...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Sep 18
12:00AM Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR
9:15AM Aug Industrial Production (%) Aug 0% 0.3% 0.2%
9:30AM Fed Bowman Speech
10:00AM Aug CB Leading Index MoM (%) Aug -0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
11:45AM Fed Schmid Speech
Monday, Sep 21
6:30AM Fed Goolsbee Speech