Bleeding Subsides For Now, But Bonds Remain Cautious
Bleeding Subsides For Now, But Bonds Remain Cautious
Tuesday's massive wave of bond-specific weakness still has the analytical community scratching its collective head. Our contacts are either saying nothing or telling us they're just as perplexed. So far this morning, there hasn't been any sort of repeat performance. Lower oil prices have helped bonds find their footing, but alarmingly, bonds are once again diverging from their correlation with oil in early trading. On the calendar front, the 2pm FOMC Minutes release is the only thing that seems like it might be relevant, but as a reminder, this is just a more detailed account of the meeting that took place 3 weeks ago, and we've heard plenty of Fed speakers clarify their outlook over those 3 weeks.
Huge Block Trades Drove Big AM Sell-Off
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, May 20 | |||||
| 7:00AM | May/15 Mortgage Market Index | May/15 | 283.5 | 290.1 | |
| 7:00AM | May/15 MBA Refi Index | May/15 | 920.2 | 921.1 | |
| 7:00AM | May/15 MBA Purchase Index | May/15 | 170.4 | 177.7 | |
| 8:00AM | Fed Paulson Speech | ||||
| 10:15AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | May/15 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | May/15 | -7.864M | -2.9M | -4.306M |
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 16 | |||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Minutes | ||||
| Thursday, May 21 | |||||
| 8:30AM | May/09 Continued Claims (k) | May/09 | 1790K | 1782K | |
| 8:30AM | May Philly Fed Prices Paid | May | 59.30 | ||
| 8:30AM | May/16 Jobless Claims (k) | May/16 | 210K | 211K | |
| 8:30AM | Apr Building Permits (ml) | Apr | 1.39M | 1.363M | |
| 8:30AM | Apr Housing starts number mm (ml) | Apr | 1.41M | 1.502M | |
| 8:30AM | May Philly Fed Business Index | May | 18 | 26.7 | |
| 9:45AM | May S&P Global Composite PMI | May | 51.7 | ||
| 9:45AM | May S&P Global Services PMI | May | 51.1 | 51.0 | |
| 9:45AM | May S&P Global Manuf. PMI | May | 53.8 | 54.5 | |
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 19 | |||