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Slightly Stronger Start
Slightly Stronger Start
The bond market continues to decide who it wants to be in Q4, 2026--the harbinger of inflation concerns, debt issuance and economic growth or a safe haven for cash being freed up by AI capex deleveraging. We're starting slightly stronger today with the AI deleveraging trade apparently setting the tone. Movement is too modest to demand any rigorous analysis (Nasdaq lower, yields lower), but at least it's green.
What's up With Today's Weakness?
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Oct 20 | |||||
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 18.5K | 24.75K | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Building Permits (ml) | Sep | 1.4M | 1.39M | 1.403M |
| 8:30AM | Sep Housing starts number mm (ml) | Sep | 1.221M | 1.30M | 1.275M |
| 10:00AM | Sep Pending Home Sales (%) | Sep | -7.3% | -0.5% | 0.3% |
| Wednesday, Oct 21 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Oct/16 Mortgage Market Index | Oct/16 | 199.2 | ||
| 7:00AM | Oct/16 MBA Refi Index | Oct/16 | 513.5 | ||
| 7:00AM | Oct/16 MBA Purchase Index | Oct/16 | 139.3 | ||
| 10:30AM | Oct/16 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Oct/16 | -0.3M | -8.557M | |
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 13 | |||
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