NMLS #284174 Managing Member, Mortgage Loan Originator and Mortgage Guru
Clifton Mortgage Services, LLC
License:
NMLS #852745

Some Month-End Volatility Late in The Day

Some Month-End Volatility Late in The Day

Yields were near 2 week lows 2 hours before the final trades of the day, but rose several bps after that.  The initial gains were driven mainly be economic data (Chicago PMI and Consumer Inflation Expectations), but the month-end trading environment is always a wild card on month-end days.  If month-end buying was a factor, it would make sense to see some pull back when monthly closing levels were marked at 1pm ET.  That's exactly what we saw.  Fortunately, it wasn't a big deal for bonds or mortgage lenders. In fact, the entire week was distinctly lacking in volatility. Next week is a different animal thanks to big ticket econ data on 4 out of 5 days.

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Some Month-End Volatility Late in The Day

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 99.48 -0.17 10YR 4.201% +0.013% 3/28/2024 2:05PM EST
This is more of a heads-up than a true alert, and there are caveats. First off, bonds are already technically closed for the day with Treasury traders marking their end of day trades at 1pm.  In the "after hours" session (which is really just the last hour of the day due to the early close), 5.5 coupons are down an eighth from intraday highs. For lenders who repriced for the better at those highs, there is perhaps some modicum of reprice risk, but that should be te...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.91% +0.00% 15YR Fixed 6.48% +0.01% 3/28/2024
Unfortunately, we don't have a great way to measure all of the past precedents, but it's safe to say that the this was one of the least volatile weeks in the history of mortgage rates .  Our daily rate index never moved more than 0.01 and it remained in a 0.01 range. Today's average rate was right in line with yesterday's even though the bond market (the thing that normally dictates rates) suggested some movement.  Despite the suggestion, it's not a huge surprise...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Mar 29
12:00AM Good Friday
8:30AM Feb Wholesale inventories mm (%) Feb 0.5% -0.2%
8:30AM Feb Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv Feb 0.4% 0.3%
8:30AM Feb Goods Trade Balance Adv Feb $-91.84B $-90.2B
8:30AM Feb Personal Income (%) Feb 0.3% 0.4% 1%
8:30AM Feb PCE price index mm (%) Feb 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
8:30AM Feb PCE (y/y) (%) Feb 2.5% 2.5% 2.4%
8:30AM Feb Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) Feb 0.8% 0.5% 0.2%
8:30AM Feb Core PCE (m/m) (%) Feb 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
8:30AM Feb Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) Feb 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%
11:20AM Fed Daly Speech
11:30AM Fed Chair Powell Speech
Monday, Apr 01
9:45AM Mar S&P Global Manuf. PMI Mar 52.2
10:00AM Mar ISM Manufacturing Employment Mar 45.9
10:00AM Mar ISM Mfg Prices Paid Mar 52.8 52.5
10:00AM Mar ISM Manufacturing New Orders Mar 49.2
10:00AM Feb Construction spending (%) Feb 0.5% -0.2%
10:00AM Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI Mar 48.5 47.8
11:30AM 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) 70
11:30AM 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) 70
11:30AM 6-Month Bill Auction 5.105%
11:30AM 3-Month Bill Auction 5.23%
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With markets only open 3.5 days and without any top tier economic reports to influence rates, this week could have arguably been viewed as a 9 day weekend for traders.  In fact, despite some ups and downs, 10yr Treasury yields ended at the same levels as last week. The 10yr is the leading benchmark for all sorts of longer term interest rates in the U.S. like mortgages.  The relat... READ MORE
NMLS #284174 Managing Member, Mortgage Loan Originator and Mortgage Guru
Clifton Mortgage Services, LLC
License:
NMLS #852745