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Bond Momentum Continues Ignoring Data
Bond Momentum Continues Ignoring Data
On multiple recent occasions, we've seen bonds make a moderate move on days with important economic reports, but not in response to those economic reports. Thursday was the latest example. The 8:30am jobless claims data was undoubtedly a tradeable event based on the big volume spike at the time, but the higher yields were already in place by the time the data came out. Moreover, there wasn't much of a response afterward. Bonds spent the rest of the day drifting sideways to slightly weaker, but still very much in the prevailing pre-Thanksgiving range (i.e. 10yr yields 4.05-4.17).
Modestly weaker overnight but recovering a bit. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.2bps at 4.11
Bond Momentum Continues Ignoring Data
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Dec 05 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Sep Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Sep | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| 10:00AM | Sep Personal Income (%) | Sep | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 10:00AM | Sep Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| 10:00AM | Sep Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Sep | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 10:00AM | Dec U Mich conditions | Dec | 50.7 | 51.3 | 51.1 |
| 10:00AM | Dec Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Dec | 4.1% | 4.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Dec Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Dec | 3.2% | 3.4% | |
| 10:00AM | Dec Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Dec | 53.3 | 52 | 51.0 |
| 3:00PM | Oct Consumer credit (bl) | Oct | $10.5B | $13.09B | |
| Monday, Dec 08 | |||||
| 11:00AM | Nov Consumer Inflation Expectations | Nov | 3.2% | ||
| 1:00PM | 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 58 | |||
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