Fairly Calm Despite Some Fuel Price Pressure; Warsh on Deck

Fairly Calm Despite Some Fuel Price Pressure; Warsh on Deck

To reiterate a sentiment from this morning, there's a decent amount of focus on Friday's Warsh speech at Jackson Hole simply because it's customary to focus on Fed Chair speeches at Jackson Hole. They're hit and miss in terms of delivering on volatility potential. There's nothing else of note on the econ calendar. With Monday being the last day of the month, we could also see momentum from early month-end trading. Other than that, fuel prices continue to set the tone more often than not. Today was no exception as an early afternoon surge in oil pushed yields to the highs of the day after reports that the White House rejected the idea of rekindling the June MOU/ceasefire.

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Fairly Calm Despite Some Fuel Price Pressure

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5
99.49
-0.05 
10YR TREASURY
4.650
+0.001 
8/26/2026 8:45PM EST
Treasuries have been under some increased pressure in the last 15 minutes and yields are now at the highs of the day. MBS have been outperforming but have also lost ground fairly steadily since just before 11am.  5.5 UMBS are now down an eighth of a point versus AM highs. Most lenders released rates when prices were near the AM lows and are thus not seeing enough weakness to suggest reprices. The risk is that the selling continues (based on Treasuries' suggestion).&nb...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.75%
+0.00% 
15YR Fixed
6.32%
+0.00% 
8/27/2026
Mortgage rates barely budged again on Thursday, but there was far less data to digest compared to Wednesday. Bonds (which dictate rates) were steady to slightly weaker. The "weaker" part connotes higher rates, but the weakness was late in the day and too small for most mortgage lenders to do anything about it. What does that mean? Unlike the actual bond market, which can move every millisecond, mortgage lenders only change rates 1-3 times per day, and it's usually only o...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Aug 27
8:30AM Aug/22 Jobless Claims (k) Aug/22 203K 208K 206K
8:30AM Aug/15 Continued Claims (k) Aug/15 1778K 1790K 1799K
1:00PM 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) 44
8:00PM Jackson Hole Symposium
Friday, Aug 28
9:45AM Aug Chicago PMI Aug 57 57.6
10:00AM Aug Consumer Sentiment (ip) Aug 51.0 55.2
10:00AM Aug Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Aug 4.3% 4.2%
10:00AM Aug U Mich conditions Aug 51.8 54.8
10:00AM Aug Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Aug 3.3% 3.3%
10:00AM Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision (k) -911K
10:00AM Fed Chair Warsh Speech
8:00PM Jackson Hole Symposium