Modest Pressure, Light Data

Modest Pressure, Light Data

From summertime Monday to summertime Tuesday... Yesterday's modest strength is now erased by today's modest weakness. In both cases, the movement is too small to worry about obvious catalysts, though some may assume that there's an oil price component following Iran's attacks on commercial ships in The Strait. A separate consideration would be Amazon filing for a potentially large why do we care?). But even if these things are moving markets, they're not very good at it. The same can be said for essentially all of the line items on the econ calendar today.

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Uneventful Summertime Monday

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0
98.09
-0.25 
10YR TREASURY
4.514
+0.044 
7/7/2026 11:35AM EST
Bonds are selling off following another oil price spike after another tanker was hit by "something" (this time, a UAV) in The Strait. 10yr yields are up 5bps at 4.52.   MBS are down just over an eighth from rate sheet print times, and over a quarter point on the day. Negative reprices are an early consideration for lenders who priced in line with yesterday's levels.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.63%
+0.04% 
15YR Fixed
6.17%
+0.01% 
7/7/2026
Volatility is always a risk surrounding 3 day holiday weekends when it comes to markets and mortgage rates , but this time around, things have been very calm. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate remained almost perfectly flat versus last Thursday with the MND index technically falling by 0.01%. This week's calendar of scheduled events is less consequential than last week's. After today, there is essentially no big-ticket economic data. In the bigger picture, 30yr fixed ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Jul 07
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 21.0K 30.75K
8:30AM May Trade Gap (bl) May $-77.6B $-78.5B $-55.9B
9:20AM NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months (%) $3.319 billion
10:00AM Jul IBD economic optimism Jul 45.5 45 42.5
11:00AM Jun Consumer Inflation Expectations Jun 3.7% 3.5%
11:30AM 6-Week Bill Auction (%) 3.635% 3.655%
1:00PM 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 58
Wednesday, Jul 08
7:00AM Jul/03 Mortgage Market Index Jul/03 272.2
7:00AM Jul/03 MBA Refi Index Jul/03 828.7
7:00AM Jul/03 MBA Purchase Index Jul/03 170.6
10:30AM Jul/03 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Jul/03 -3.775M
1:00PM 10-yr Note Auction (bl) 39
2:00PM FOMC Minutes
3:00PM May Consumer credit (bl) May $17.1B $20.73B