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Back to The Stronger End of The Range
Back to The Stronger End of The Range
This is the problem with narrow trading ranges. Yesterday, yields were safely inside a narrow range near long-term lows. Today, they're challenging the lowest levels since November. Any time we're at the best levels in months, it's normal to want to know why, but because of the narrow range, there isn't really a new "why" for today's share of the move. After all, 10yr yields are down less than 3bps, which is a below average move in the big picture. We can't blame data as there isn't a compelling option there. If we're still desperate for a scapegoat, it may not be perfect, but there is enough correlation with the stock market's struggle to make new highs that we can at least consider it.
Choppy and sideways overnight, but in a narrow range. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.7bps at 4.039
MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 2.6bps at 4.019
MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 2.1bps at 4.024
In-Range PM Weakness
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Feb 26 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Feb/14 Continued Claims (k) | Feb/14 | 1833K | 1860K | 1869K |
| 8:30AM | Feb/21 Jobless Claims (k) | Feb/21 | 212K | 215K | 206K |
| 10:00AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| Friday, Feb 27 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jan PPI m/m (%) | Jan | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Core PPI m/m (%) | Jan | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan PPI y/y | Jan | 2.6% | 3% | |
| 9:45AM | Feb Chicago PMI | Feb | 52.8 | 54.0 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Construction spending (%) | Nov | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Dec Construction spending (%) | Dec | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
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