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Perfect Storm Leaves Rate Range Perfectly Intact
Perfect Storm Leaves Rate Range Perfectly Intact
Coming into the week, yields were near the top of a narrow range (3.4-3.56 give or take). With both ISM reports, the jobs report, and policy announcements from the Fed/ECB/BOE, it was a distinct possibility that we'd see that range broken. By Thursday morning, that looked like it was a work in progress, but by the end of the day, yields were back to 3.40. Then in a cruel twist of fate this morning, NFP beat forecasts by the widest margin in a year and half. 90 minutes later, ISM crushed its forecasts as well. These events combined to push yields right up to the top of the range, leaving us to hurry up and wait for the next set of potential market movers.
Perfect Storm Leaves The Range Perfectly Intact.mp4
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Feb 03 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jan Manufacturing payrolls (k) | Jan | 19 | 6 | 8 |
| 8:30AM | Jan Private Payrolls (k) | Jan | 443 | 190 | 220 |
| 8:30AM | Jan Non-farm payrolls (k) | Jan | 517 | 185 | 223 |
| 8:30AM | Jan Average workweek hrs (hr) | Jan | 34.7 | 34.3 | 34.3 |
| 8:30AM | Jan Unemployment rate mm (%) | Jan | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| 8:30AM | Jan Average earnings mm (%) | Jan | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM Biz Activity | Jan | 60.4 | 54.5 | 54.7 |
| 10:00AM | Jan ISM N-Mfg PMI | Jan | 55.2 | 50.4 | 49.6 |
| Monday, Feb 06 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Jan Employment Trends | Jan | 116.31 | ||
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 48 | |||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 60 | |||
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