Strong Start After Sharply Lower CPI
Strong Start After Sharply Lower CPI
The Consumer Price Index came in FAR below expectations with a core reading of 0.0 vs 0.2 forecasts. In unrounded terms, it was -0.17%. Headline CPI was more sharply negative than expected at -0.4 vs a -0.1 forecast. Supercore (which excludes housing) was down -0.2 which is the first negative reading in over a year. Core goods also remained in negative territory for a second straight month. Bonds rallied instantly, led by the short end of the curve (more closely tied to Fed rate expectations). But even 10yr yields are down over 5bps and MBS are up more than 3/8ths of a point.
Oil and Waller Double Whammy
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Jul 14 | |||||
| 6:00AM | Jun NFIB Business Optimism Index | Jun | 97.4 | 95.8 | 95.3 |
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 19.75K | 21.0K | ||
| 8:30AM | Jun y/y CORE CPI (%) | Jun | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% |
| 8:30AM | Jun y/y Headline CPI (%) | Jun | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% |
| 8:30AM | Jun m/m CORE CPI (%) | Jun | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Jun m/m Headline CPI (%) | Jun | -0.4% | -0.1% | 0.5% |
| 10:00AM | Fed Chair Warsh Testimony | ||||
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.635% | |||
| 12:40PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 1:30PM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| 2:55PM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| Wednesday, Jul 15 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Jul/10 Mortgage Market Index | Jul/10 | 266.3 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jul/10 MBA Refi Index | Jul/10 | 794.4 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jul/10 MBA Purchase Index | Jul/10 | 169.5 | ||
| 8:30AM | Jun PPI m/m (%) | Jun | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Jun PPI y/y | Jun | 6.2% | 6.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Jul NY Fed Manufacturing | Jul | 8.8 | 5.70 | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Core PPI y/y (%) | Jun | 5.2% | 4.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Jun Core PPI m/m (%) | Jun | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 8:45AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Fed Chair Warsh Testimony | ||||
| 10:30AM | Jul/10 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jul/10 | 2.998M | ||
| 12:00PM | NOPA Crush Report (%) | ||||
| 1:00PM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
| 6:30PM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||