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Data Ramps Up And Another Dash of Quarter-End Trading
Data Ramps Up And Another Dash of Quarter-End Trading
Before looking at trading screens this morning, the first order of business would have been to mention the ramp up in economic calendar activity. While the line item count is respectable, it's really only the 10am Job Openings data that packs enough of a punch to represent any serious volatility risk. Even then, sometimes it hits and sometimes it doesn't. Bonds are starting out slightly weaker thanks to another dash of quarter-end position squaring. It arrived at almost the exact same time as the last Wednesday's installment, but in the form of selling instead of buying. Thankfully, it was a lot smaller and merely added about 2bps to 10yr yields (which remain well under the 4.42% technical level).
Volatility Risk Ramps Up From Here
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Jun 30 | |||||
| 9:00AM | Apr FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) | Apr | 2% | 1.7% | |
| 9:00AM | Apr Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) | Apr | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| 9:00AM | Apr CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) | Apr | 1% | 1% | |
| 9:00AM | Apr FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) | Apr | -0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 9:45AM | Jun Chicago PMI | Jun | 56.7 | 58.1 | 62.7 |
| 10:00AM | May JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | May | 3.065M | 2.977M | |
| 10:00AM | May USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | May | 7.594M | 7.30M | 7.618M |
| 10:00AM | Jun CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Jun | 91.2 | 94.7 | 93.1 |
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.655% | 3.620% | ||
| Wednesday, Jul 01 | |||||
| 5:30AM | Jun Challenger layoffs (k) | Jun | 97.006K | ||
| 7:00AM | Jun/26 MBA Purchase Index | Jun/26 | 169.7 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jun/26 MBA Refi Index | Jun/26 | 834.2 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jun/26 Mortgage Market Index | Jun/26 | 272.1 | ||
| 8:15AM | Jun ADP jobs (k) | Jun | 113K | 122K | |
| 9:00AM | Fed Chair Warsh Speech | ||||
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $6.637 billion | |||
| 9:45AM | Jun S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Jun | 55.7 | 55.1 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Jun | 79 | 82.1 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Manufacturing PMI | Jun | 54 | 54.0 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun ISM Manufacturing Employment | Jun | 48.6 | ||
| 10:00AM | May Construction spending (%) | May | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 10:30AM | Jun/26 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jun/26 | -4.8M | -6.088M | |
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