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War Headlines Help Bond Recovery Continue
War Headlines Help Bond Recovery Continue
The focal point of the overnight news cycle was a report that administration officials said Trump is willing to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Markets rallied nearly as much just before the open when Trump said the hard part is essentially done on the Iran war (and that other countries should just go take their own oil now, or buy it from the U.S.). The initial move took yields from 4.36 to 4.33 and the pre-open rally was 4.34 to 4.30--"moderate," but notable as it is happening on the day after an already big rally. War headlines remain in focus despite econ data ramping up. If 10am ET job openings data is spicy enough, it could command some attention given that the "recession fear" trade is thought to be the key reason that bond yields defied higher oil prices yesterday.
Moderately stronger overnight. MBS up just over a quarter point and 10yr down 5bps at 4.302
Near best levels with MBS up more than 3/8ths and 10yr down 5.3bps at 4.298
Why Bonds Are Rallying Despite Higher Oil Prices
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Mar 31 | |||||
| 9:00AM | Jan FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) | Jan | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 9:00AM | Jan CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) | Jan | -0.1% | -0.1% | |
| 9:00AM | Jan FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) | Jan | 1.6% | 1.8% | |
| 9:00AM | Jan Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) | Jan | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% |
| 9:45AM | Mar Chicago PMI | Mar | 52.8 | 55 | 57.7 |
| 10:00AM | Feb JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Feb | 2.974M | 3.1M | |
| 10:00AM | Mar CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Mar | 91.8 | 88 | 91.2 |
| 10:00AM | Feb USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Feb | 6.882M | 6.92M | 6.946M |
| 12:00PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 12:00PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 3:00PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| Wednesday, Apr 01 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Mar/27 MBA Purchase Index | Mar/27 | 163.6 | ||
| 7:00AM | Mar/27 MBA Refi Index | Mar/27 | 1145.0 | ||
| 7:00AM | Mar/27 Mortgage Market Index | Mar/27 | 310.7 | ||
| 8:15AM | Mar ADP jobs (k) | Mar | 40K | 63K | |
| 9:05AM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| 9:13AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $8.071 billion | |||
| 9:45AM | Mar S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Mar | 52.4 | 51.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Manufacturing Employment | Mar | 48.8 | ||
| 10:00AM | Feb Construction spending (%) | Feb | |||
| 10:00AM | Jan Business Inventories (% ) | Jan | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Mar | 73 | 70.5 | |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI | Mar | 52.5 | 52.4 | |
| 10:30AM | Mar/27 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Mar/27 | -1.3M | 6.926M | |
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