5% Yields Bringing Value Buyers?

5% Yields Bringing Value Buyers?

With no meaningful econ data on tap today and no high stakes events, bonds are left to watch news headlines and attend to last-minute positioning goals before tomorrow's Fed announcement. There's a bit more of a disconnect between oil prices and bond yields than normal today. Earlier in the overnight session, yields actually led the way higher. In the past hour, however, oil is spiking and yields are trying to hold under yesterday's domestic session highs.  This might (MIGHT!) speak to some level of exhaustion among sellers in the long end of the curve, or some value buyers who like the idea of 5% rate of return on fixed income.

Latest Video Analysis

Decent Mid-Day Recovery

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5
97.13
+0.01 
10YR TREASURY
4.994
+0.010 
9/15/2026 12:55PM EST
With no meaningful econ data on tap today and no high stakes events, bonds are left to watch news headlines and attend to last-minute positioning goals before tomorrow's Fed announcement. There's a bit more of a disconnect between oil prices and bond yields than normal today. Earlier in the overnight session, yields actually led the way higher. In the past hour, however, oil is spiking and yields are trying to hold under yesterday's domestic session highs.  This might (M...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
7.22%
+0.05% 
15YR Fixed
6.82%
+0.12% 
9/15/2026
On average, the top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate moved up to another new long-term high today of 7.17%. You'd have to go back to January, 2025 to see anything higher. That said, there's more variability than normal today depending on the lender.  Bonds (which dictate rates) were at their weakest levels of the day right around the time most lenders publish mortgage rates for the first time (9:30-10:30am ET). Bonds improved after that following headlines that helped o...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Sep 15
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 16.25K 12K
8:30AM Sep NY Fed Manufacturing Sep 7.60 14.75 20.60
1:00PM 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 13
Wednesday, Sep 16
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR
7:00AM Sep/11 MBA Refi Index Sep/11 687.3
7:00AM Sep/11 MBA Purchase Index Sep/11 157.5
7:00AM Sep/11 Mortgage Market Index Sep/11 240.6
8:30AM Aug Import prices mm (%) Aug 0.4% -0.4%
8:30AM Aug Retail Sales (%) Aug 0.8% -0.6%
8:30AM Aug Retail Sales Control Group MoM Aug 0.4% -0.4%
10:00AM Jul Business Inventories (% ) Jul 0.3% 0%
10:00AM Sep NAHB housing market indx Sep 34 35
10:30AM Sep/11 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Sep/11 -0.391M
2:00PM FOMC Economic Projections
2:00PM Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr 3.6%
2:00PM Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr 3.4%
2:00PM Interest Rate Projection - Longer 3.1%
2:00PM Interest Rate Projection - Current 3.8%
2:00PM Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr 3.1%
2:00PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 4% 3.75%
2:30PM Fed Press Conference