Data-Driven Sell-Off Dominates The Day. No Jobs Report on Friday

Data-Driven Sell-Off Dominates The Day. No Jobs Report on Friday

Very little changed after this morning's commentary. At the time, we were watching bonds sell-off somewhat sharply in response to an exceptionally strong ISM Manufacturing report. As is often the case with data-driven selling sprees, the worst was over in the first 10 minutes and the rest of the day was broadly sideways. That said, it wasn't without its interesting updates. Chief among them was news that this Friday's jobs report would be postponed due to the government shutdown (and same story with tomorrow's JOLTS data). 

Market Movement Recap
08:41 AM

roughly unchanged after bonds give up overnight gains in early trading. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up half a bp at 4.24

12:02 PM

much weaker after ISM, but flat after initial reaction. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 3.9bps at 3.828

03:28 PM

Treading water near weakest levels. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr yr up 4.2bps at 3.831

Latest Video Analysis

Data-Driven Sell-Off Dominates The Day. No Jobs Report on Friday

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.96 -0.06 10YR 4.253% +0.018% 2/1/2026 9:34PM EST
Some would say there were warning signs, such as last week's Chicago PMI surging to the 2nd highest level since 2022, but that was generally dismissed as a noisy outlier in a data set that is volatility-prone. In this case, however, Chicago PMI was prescient. Today's ISM Manufacturing data surged to the highest level since 2022, both in terms of the headline and new orders. Even though this report isn't as much of a market mover as the non-manufacturing version, this is a big...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.17% +0.01% 15YR Fixed 5.76% +0.01% 2/2/2026
Weakness in the bond market generally means higher mortgage rates . Today was no exception. A key economic report on the manufacturing sector was much stronger than expected. Bonds lost ground as a result and mortgage lenders were forced to set rates higher than Friday's latest levels. But the caveat is that the average lender was only marginally higher. The level of movement in the bond market suggested a bigger change. In other words, mortgage rates fared a bit better th...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Feb 02
9:20AM NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months (%) $6.921 billion
9:45AM Jan S&P Global Manuf. PMI Jan 52.4 51.9 51.8
10:00AM Jan ISM Manufacturing Employment Jan 48.1 44.9
10:00AM Jan ISM Manufacturing PMI Jan 52.6 48.5 47.9
10:00AM Jan ISM Mfg Prices Paid Jan 59.0 60.5 58.5
12:25PM Fed Bostic Speech
2:00PM Loan Officer Survey
Tuesday, Feb 03
8:00AM Fed Barkin Speech
10:10AM Feb IBD economic optimism Feb 47.9 47.2
Read My Latest Newsletter
This week's newsletter is all about context when it comes to economic data and market movement. One point of view may provide a clear takeaway while zooming out completely changes the picture. Let's start with an easy one. The early January mortgage rate rally led to an obvious surge in refinance applications.  Taken together with the mini refi boom in September 2025, things look pretty ac... READ MORE