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CPI Puts a Floor Under Recent Rate Rally
CPI Puts a Floor Under Recent Rate Rally
Unrounded core CPI came in at 0.335, which nearly rounds to 0.4% versus an expectations of 0.2%. This is a big surprise when it comes to inflation data, and it matters more at the moment given the rapidly evolving Fed rate hike outlook. Recent Fed speeches caused a significant pull-back in rate hike expectations. Today's inflation data undoes most of that progress. It may not cause rates to break into new highs, but it makes a strong case for this week's lows being the floor until further notice.
Light Volatility and Modest Gains Ahead of CPI
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Oct 14 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Oct/09 MBA Refi Index | Oct/09 | 513.5 | 515.8 | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/09 MBA Purchase Index | Oct/09 | 139.3 | 145.1 | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/09 Mortgage Market Index | Oct/09 | 199.2 | 204.7 | |
| 8:30AM | Sep y/y Headline CPI (%) | Sep | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% |
| 8:30AM | Sep m/m Headline CPI (%) | Sep | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Sep y/y CORE CPI (%) | Sep | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| 8:30AM | Sep m/m CORE CPI (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 2:00PM | Sep Federal budget (bl) | Sep | $-29B | $-167B | |
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
| Thursday, Oct 15 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Oct Philly Fed Prices Paid | Oct | 48.60 | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Core PPI m/m (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Core PPI y/y (%) | Sep | 4.4% | 4.6% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/03 Continued Claims (k) | Oct/03 | 1710K | 1716K | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/10 Jobless Claims (k) | Oct/10 | 200K | 197K | |
| 8:30AM | Oct NY Fed Manufacturing | Oct | 10.3 | 7.60 | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Philly Fed Business Index | Oct | 28.4 | 37.8 | |
| 8:30AM | Sep PPI m/m (%) | Sep | 0.5% | 0.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep PPI y/y | Sep | 5.3% | 5.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Sep | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Retail Sales (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 10:00AM | Aug Business Inventories (% ) | Aug | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 12:00PM | NOPA Crush Report (%) | ||||
| 12:00PM | Oct/09 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Oct/09 | -3.186M | ||
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