Some Headwinds Ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole Speech

Some Headwinds Ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole Speech

Thursday brought the week's only relevant econ data with 3 occasional market movers on tap.  Their results were mixed, but the important development was that the inflation components of the Philly Fed and S&P PMI data agreed that price pressures are alive and well. This made for a weaker start during the AM hours and that weakness was exacerbated by comments from Fed's Hammack (who said current data doesn't justify a September rate cut). A super strong 30yr TIPS auction at 1pm helped push back just a bit (which is quite remarkable as this essentially never has an impact). In the bigger picture, bonds could still be classified as drifting sideways to slightly weaker in a narrow range. Friday morning's speech from Fed Chair Powell isn't guaranteed to cause volatility, but it's the week's only true top-tier event in terms of volatility potential.

Market Movement Recap
08:37 AM

MBS are now down only 1 tick (.03) and 10yr yields are close to unchanged at 4.296 after being over 4.315 just before the data.

09:03 AM

10yr yields are back up to 4.312 (up 1.8bps on the day) and MBS are down 3 ticks (.09) on the day.

09:52 AM

Weakest levels after PMI data.  MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3.3bps at 4.328

11:22 AM

MBS down 5 ticks (.16) on the day 10yr yields up 4.5bps on the day at 4.35. Fed's Hammack comments are the driver of the most recent weakness

01:11 PM

Some resilience after strong 30yr TIPS auction (never have we ever seen a 30yr TIPS auction move the market).  10yr up 3.4bps at 4.329 and MBS down 3 ticks (.09).

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Inflation Data and Fed Comments Creating Headwinds

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 99.98 -0.07 10YR 4.329% +0.034% 8/21/2025 3:07PM EST
MBS are now down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and nearly an eighth of a point from some early lenders' rate sheet print times. 10yr yields are also up to new highs, up 4.5bps on the day at 4.35. Fed comments are visibly adding to weakness as well as lower rate cut odds via Fed Funds Futures. HAMMACK: NOT GOING TO SEE FULL TARIFF EFFECT UNTIL NEXT YEAR HAMMACK: BIGGEST CONCERN IS INFLATION TOO HIGH, TRENDING UP HAMMACK: WITH DATA NOW, WOULDN'T SEE CASE FOR SEPTEMBER CU...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.62% +0.01% 15YR Fixed 5.97% +0.00% 8/21/2025
In a world (like this one) where mortgage rates are dictated by bond market movement and where bonds take cues from certain economic reports, weeks like this one can be frustrating or boring.  Until today, there haven't been any actionable economic reports to inspire a bond market reaction. Unfortunately, today's data was relatively unfriendly for rates, primarily due to inflation implications in two separate reports (Philly Fed Index and S&P PMIs). Bonds also ca...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Aug 21
7:30AM Fed Bostic Speech
8:30AM Aug/16 Jobless Claims (k) Aug/16 235K 225K 224K
8:30AM Aug Philly Fed Business Index Aug -0.3 7 15.9
8:30AM Aug Philly Fed Prices Paid Aug 66.80 58.80
8:30AM Aug/09 Continued Claims (k) Aug/09 1972K 1960K 1953K
9:45AM Aug S&P Global Composite PMI Aug 55.4 55.1
9:45AM Aug S&P Global Manuf. PMI Aug 53.3 49.5 49.8
9:45AM Aug S&P Global Services PMI Aug 55.4 54.2 55.7
10:00AM Jul CB Leading Index MoM (%) Jul -0.1% -0.1% -0.3%
10:00AM Jul Existing home sales (ml) Jul 4.01M 3.92M 3.93M
10:00AM Jul Exist. home sales % chg (%) Jul 2% -2.7%
1:00PM 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 8
8:00PM Jackson Hole Symposium
Friday, Aug 22
10:00AM Fed Chair Powell Speech
8:00PM Jackson Hole Symposium
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Inflation data was in focus this week, with one major report helping mortgage rates officially hit new 10-month lows before the 2nd report pushed back in the other direction. The biggest report, Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), was generally friendly for rates despite coming in right in line with forecasts. Some categories showed tariff-related price pressures, but easing in hou... READ MORE