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Uneventful Drift Ahead of Friday's Monthly PCE Data
Uneventful Drift Ahead of Friday's Monthly PCE Data
For the 3rd day in a row, the bond market logged a rather uneventful trading session ending with minimal change versus the previous trading day. All this despite the presence of several economic reports and Treasury auctions. If there was any reaction to this morning's data, it was slightly bond-friendly, but not enough to say it was anything other than random. The 7yr auction was a non-event, and stocks failed to offer any of the recent sort of spillover that has frequently made its way into the bond market. From here, the week's last big chance/risk of volatility is Friday morning's monthly PCE data.
Weaker overnight but improving after data. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up half a bp at 4.358.
No major reaction to 7yr auction. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.6bps at 4.368
Sideways still. MBS down 1 tick (0.03) and 10yr up 2.1bps at 4.374
Uneventful Drift Ahead of Friday's Monthly PCE Data
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Mar 28 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Feb Personal Income (%) | Feb | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Feb | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Feb | 2.7% | 2.6% | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | Feb | 0.5% | -0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Feb PCE (y/y) (%) | Feb | 2.5% | 2.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Feb PCE price index mm (%) | Feb | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10:00AM | Mar U Mich conditions | Mar | 63.5 | 65.7 | |
| 10:00AM | Mar Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Mar | 4.9% | 4.3% | |
| 10:00AM | Mar Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Mar | 3.9% | 3.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Mar Michigan Consumer Expectations Final | Mar | 54.2 | 64.0 | |
| 10:00AM | Mar Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Mar | 57.9 | 64.7 | |
| 12:15PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | Mar/28 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Mar/28 | 593 | ||
| 1:00PM | Mar/28 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Mar/28 | 486 | ||
| 3:30PM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| Monday, Mar 31 | |||||
| 9:45AM | Mar Chicago PMI | Mar | 45.4 | 45.5 | |
| 10:30AM | Mar Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | Mar | -8.3 | ||
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 68 | |||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 76 | |||
| 11:30AM | 6-Month Bill Auction | 4.085% | |||
| 11:30AM | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.190% | |||
| 12:00PM | 2025 Prospective Plantings - Corn (%) | 2025 | 90.036M | ||
| 12:00PM | 2025 Prospective Plantings - Soy (%) | 2025 | 86.51M | ||
| 12:00PM | 2025 Prospective Plantings - Wheat (%) | 2025 | 47.498M | ||
| 12:00PM | 2025 Prospective Plantings - Cotton (%) | 2025 | 10.673M | ||
| 12:00PM | Mar Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn | Mar | 12.074B | ||
| 12:00PM | Mar Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy | Mar | 3.1B | ||
| 12:00PM | Mar Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat | Mar | 1.57B | ||
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