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Decent Showing in Light of Stronger Data
Decent Showing in Light of Stronger Data
Bonds lost ground today, but not as much as one might expect given the 233k vs 115k result in the ADP Employment data. Granted, ADP is a notoriously imperfect predictor of the NFP number that follows 2 days later, but that never stops markets from reacting on occasions like this. So what stopped them today? Some combination of month-end trading, a favorable report on new Treasury auction amounts, "bigger fish to fry," and perhaps the fact that payroll counts are being taken with a grain of salt due to weather-related disruptions in September. Ultimately, bonds did manage to lose a bit of ground, but not until well after the morning's econ data reaction window had passed.
Slightly stronger overnight and weaker after data. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 1bp at 4.264
Nice recovery into the 10am hour with 10yr now down 1.7bps at 4.238 and MBS up 1 tick (.03).
less volatility now. Modest weakness remains. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up half a bp at 4.259
Reasonably Resilient in Light of Stronger Data
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Oct 30 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Oct/25 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Oct/25 | 6.73% | 6.52% | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/25 MBA Mortgage Applications | Oct/25 | -0.1% | -6.7% | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/25 Mortgage Market Index | Oct/25 | 214.5 | 214.8 | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/25 MBA Refi Index | Oct/25 | 630.0 | 672.6 | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/25 MBA Purchase Index | Oct/25 | 137.8 | 131.3 | |
| 8:15AM | Oct ADP jobs (k) | Oct | 233K | 115K | 143K |
| 8:30AM | Treasury Refunding Announcement (%) | ||||
| 8:30AM | Q3 Core PCE Prices QoQ Final | Q3 | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% |
| 8:30AM | Q3 Real Consumer Spending QoQ Final | Q3 | 3.7% | 2.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 PCE Prices QoQ Final | Q3 | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% |
| 8:30AM | Q3 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q3 | 3% | 1.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 GDP deflator (%) | Q3 | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% |
| 8:30AM | Q3 GDP (%) | Q3 | 2.8% | 3% | 3% |
| 10:00AM | Sep Pending Home Sales YoY | Sep | 2.6% | -3% | |
| 10:00AM | Sep Pending Home Sales (%) | Sep | 7.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| 10:30AM | Oct/25 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Oct/25 | 0.571M | -0.28M | |
| 10:30AM | Oct/25 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Oct/25 | -0.605M | 0.913M | |
| 10:30AM | Oct/25 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Oct/25 | -2.707M | 0.6M | 0.878M |
| 10:30AM | Oct/25 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Oct/25 | 0.681M | -0.346M | |
| 10:30AM | Oct/25 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Oct/25 | -0.148M | 0.257M | |
| 10:30AM | Oct/25 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Oct/25 | -0.259M | 0.666M | |
| 10:30AM | Oct/25 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Oct/25 | -0.515M | 2.3M | 5.474M |
| 10:30AM | Oct/25 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Oct/25 | -0.977M | -1.59M | -1.14M |
| 10:30AM | Oct/25 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Oct/25 | -0.031M | 0.329M | |
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction (%) | 4.430% | 4.445% | ||
| Thursday, Oct 31 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Oct Challenger layoffs (k) | Oct | 72.821K | ||
| 8:30AM | Q3 Employment costs (%) | Q3 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/19 Continued Claims (ml) | Oct/19 | 1890K | 1897K | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 Employment Benefits qq (%) | Q3 | 1% | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Sep | 2.6% | 2.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 Employment Wages qq (%) | Q3 | 0.9% | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/26 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | Oct/26 | 238.5K | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Personal Income (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/26 Jobless Claims (k) | Oct/26 | 230K | 227K | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | Sep | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep PCE (y/y) (%) | Sep | 2.1% | 2.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep PCE price index mm (%) | Sep | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 9:45AM | Oct Chicago PMI | Oct | 47 | 46.6 | |
| 10:30AM | Oct/25 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | Oct/25 | 79Bcf | 80Bcf | |
| 11:30AM | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.650% | |||
| 11:30AM | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.590% | |||
| 12:00PM | Oct/30 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Oct/30 | 6.54% | ||
| 12:00PM | Oct/30 15-Year Mortgage Rate | Oct/30 | 5.71% | ||
| 4:30PM | Oct/30 Central Bank Balance Sheet | Oct/30 | $7.03T | ||
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