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Calm Day to End A Calm Week
Calm Day to End A Calm Week
While Friday itself may not have resulted in a rally for the broader bond market, it was nonetheless just as calm as any other day this week in terms of volatility. That's a bit more impressive considering it was the only day with big-ticket econ data. Overall, the week was marked by slow, steady gains for no particular reason. With that, the entirety of August, post-jobs-report did exactly what it was supposed to do. Specifically, it held a narrow enough range to avoid challenging the range set by the last jobs report day. The upcoming week--while shorter than normal due to the Labor Day holiday--is infinitely more capable of producing bond market volatility. Even the supporting actors are arguably heavy hitters in terms of econ data. Friday's jobs report speaks for itself. Bottom line: additional labor market weakness could easily help bonds break new ground at lower yields while unexpected resilience could firmly reinforce recent floors.
Minimal movement after PCE data. MBS are down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr yields are up 1.4bps at 4.22.
Slightly stronger heading into PM. MBS down only 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.224
Calm End to Calm Week
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Aug 29 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jul Personal Income (%) | Jul | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Jul Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | Jul | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Jul Wholesale inventories mm (%) | Jul | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Jul Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Jul | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| 8:30AM | Jul Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Jul | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 9:45AM | Aug Chicago PMI | Aug | 41.5 | 46 | 47.1 |
| 10:00AM | Aug Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Aug | 58.2 | 58.6 | 61.7 |
| 10:00AM | Aug Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Aug | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% |
| 10:00AM | Aug Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Aug | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% |
| 10:00AM | Aug U Mich conditions | Aug | 61.7 | 60.9 | 68.0 |
| Monday, Sep 01 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Labor Day | ||||
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