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Some Pros and Cons in Today's Weakness
Some Pros and Cons in Today's Weakness
Bonds lost ground today, but it wasn't necessarily an unequivocally bad day. Yields were close to yesterday's lows just before this morning's PCE data came out and only moved higher after that. If the data had been better, it's possible today could have started on a stronger note. Oil price volatility was the other notable factor with prices moving up roughly $3 between 5am and noon ET. In light of both of those headwinds, bonds actually lost minimal ground and managed to hold below yesterday's high yields with multiple ceiling bounces at 4.67% in the 10yr. If we see weaker data and lower oil prices ahead, there's no reason to think bonds couldn't challenge this week's best levels again.
Pros and Cons in Today's Weakness
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Aug 26 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Aug/21 MBA Refi Index | Aug/21 | 740.8 | 755.9 | |
| 7:00AM | Aug/21 MBA Purchase Index | Aug/21 | 154.4 | 154.8 | |
| 7:00AM | Aug/21 Mortgage Market Index | Aug/21 | 245.3 | 247.7 | |
| 8:30AM | Q2 Corporate profits (% ) | Q2 | 8.2% | 0.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Q2 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q2 | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% |
| 8:30AM | Jul PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Jul | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Q2 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q2 | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% |
| 8:30AM | Q2 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q2 | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.4% |
| 8:30AM | Jul Durable goods (%) | Jul | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Jul Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Jul | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| 8:30AM | Jul Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Jul | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Jul Core CapEx (%) | Jul | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 8:30AM | Jul PCE (y/y) (%) | Jul | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% |
| 8:30AM | Q2 GDP (%) | Q2 | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% |
| 10:30AM | Aug/21 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Aug/21 | 0.095M | 0.6M | 4.405M |
| 11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 28 | |||
| 11:30AM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.055% | 0.050% | ||
| 11:45AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 8:00PM | Jackson Hole Symposium | ||||
| Thursday, Aug 27 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Aug/22 Jobless Claims (k) | Aug/22 | 208K | 206K | |
| 8:30AM | Aug/15 Continued Claims (k) | Aug/15 | 1790K | 1799K | |
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| 8:00PM | Jackson Hole Symposium | ||||
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