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Slightly Stronger Start Mostly Due to Oil. Treasury News Fails to Inspire (Again)
Slightly Stronger Start Mostly Due to Oil. Treasury News Fails to Inspire (Again)
Once again, Treasury is out with news about bond buying plans with two officials saying the Treasury General Account (TGA) could be used to fund long-end buybacks. TGA is Treasury's bank account. It gets money from taxes, Treasury issuance, tariffs, etc. Therefore, any way you slice it, Treasury bond buying = government spending, unlike Fed QE. At best, it can influence the yield curve, but it can't artificially suppress yields overall. This is why the bond market won't embark on a big, sustained rally in response to Treasury bond buying, no matter how big a deal financial media makes of the news. In today's case, it could be contributing to yield curve flattening, but the modest rally seen in the bond market is far easier to attribute to a decent drop in fuel prices overnight.
Incidental Weakness. Bigger Considerations on The Horizon
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Aug 24 | |||||
| 1:00PM | Treasury Secretary Bessent Speech (%) | ||||
| Tuesday, Aug 25 | |||||
| 8:00AM | Jul Building Permits (ml) | Jul | 1.443M | 1.374M | |
| 8:00AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 9.5K | |||
| 9:00AM | Jun FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) | Jun | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 9:00AM | Jun FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) | Jun | 2.2% | ||
| 9:00AM | Jun Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) | Jun | 1.7% | 1.6% | |
| 9:00AM | Jun CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) | Jun | 0.9% | ||
| 10:00AM | Jul New Home Sales (ml) | Jul | 0.62M | 0.628M | |
| 10:00AM | Jul New Home Sales (%) (%) | Jul | 1.6% | ||
| 10:00AM | Aug CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Aug | 91.2 | 90.8 | |
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.645% | |||
| 1:00PM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 69 | |||
| 4:00PM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
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