Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House

War Headlines Pushing Oil and Yields Higher

War Headlines Pushing Oil and Yields Higher

Some summertime Mondays are slow and uneventful. Some see brisk movement. Today's was somewhere in between. There was modest pressure at the outset following headlines about Iran planning to escalate hostilities. The sharpest increase in oil prices coincided with Iran seizing a UAE tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. 10yr yields followed and hit the highs of the day shortly thereafter. Bottom line: fairly straightforward day, even if moderately unpleasant for fans of low rates. 

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War Headlines Pushing Oil and Yields Higher

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5
99.24
-0.15 
10YR TREASURY
4.723
+0.031 
8/17/2026 3:15PM EST
Oil prices and bond yields are both at the highs of the day with 10yr yields up 2.5bps at 4.718%.  MBS are also at the lows, down an eighth of a point on the day and an eighth of a point versus intraday highs. Because those highs coincide with some lenders' rate sheet print times, negative reprice risk can't be ruled out from the jumpiest lenders.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.73%
+0.02% 
15YR Fixed
6.30%
+0.01% 
8/17/2026
After ending last week near the lowest level since July 17th, mortgage rates are moving up to start the new week. Motivations are familiar. Escalation in U.S./Iran tensions is pushing fuel prices higher and bond yields continue to correlate. Bond yields correlate with consumer interest rates with near perfection. In mortgage-specific terms, the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate moved up 0.02% today to 6.73%. This is still much lower than the most recent high of 6.85%, bu...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Aug 17
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR
8:30AM Aug NY Fed Manufacturing Aug 20.60 11 15.60
10:00AM Aug NAHB housing market indx Aug 35 33 34
12:00PM NOPA Crush Report (%)
Tuesday, Aug 18
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 8.25K
8:30AM Jul Building Permits (ml) Jul 1.37M 1.374M
8:30AM Jul Import prices mm (%) Jul 0.1% 0.3%
8:30AM Jul Housing starts number mm (ml) Jul 1.35M 1.427M
9:15AM Jul Industrial Production (%) Jul 0.3% 0.1%
10:00AM Jul Pending Home Sales (%) Jul 0.2% -5.4%
11:30AM 6-Week Bill Auction (%) 3.670%
Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House