Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House
P: (407) 255-2047
M: (704) 957-5053
MHOD Portal
8751 Commodity Circle Ste 17
Orlando Fl 32819

Bonds Close Out Epic Week of Resilience With Friendly Data

Monday, February 16, 2026

Bonds Close Out Epic Week of Resilience With Friendly Data

Friday was a logically friendly day thanks to slightly lower CPI. But no matter what happened on any of the other 4 days, this week was all about bonds ending up at much stronger levels in spite of a jobs report that should have sent rates higher on Wednesday. Ironclad justification remains impossible, but the leading theory involves heavy liquidation mode in stocks/commodities on Thursday. Holiday weekend positioning could also be a factor. As such, we'll learn a lot more next Tuesday--especially if stocks find a reason to stage a big bounce. 

Latest Video Analysis

Bonds Close Out Epic Week of Resilience With Friendly Data

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 100.33 +0.09 10YR 4.049% -0.051% 2/13/2026 5:59PM EST
Bonds Rally, Ignoring Surge in SuperCore CPI
CPI came in just a hair below forecasts at the headline level and right in line with forecasts at the core level (unrounded .295 vs .300). Shelter components continued lower with Owners' Equivalent Rent at 0.220 (basically a cycle low if we ignore the low quality data collection surrounding the government shutdown). The only potential hurdle for the bond market to clear was the surge in the supercore reading to the highest levels in a year. Despite a fair amount of attention ...   READ MORE
Update:
First Move is Stronger After CPI
MBS Morning:
Slower Data. Slower Morning
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.04% -0.06% 15YR Fixed 5.61% -0.08% 2/13/2026
Mortgage Rates Oh So Close to 3 Year Lows
When the administration announced that Fannie and Freddie would be buying mortgage-backed securities in early January, rates fell sharply to the lowest levels in more than 3 years. After a moderate rebound the following week, we've been holding mostly steady in a range that was 0.1-0.2 above those long-term lows. The past two days have brought enough improvement that the average lender is once again at levels that are close enough to the long-term lows seen on January 9th a...   READ MORE
Last Week This Week Next Week
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Feb 16
12:00AM Presidents Day
8:25AM Fed Bowman Speech
Tuesday, Feb 17
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 6.5K
8:30AM Feb NY Fed Manufacturing Feb 6 7.70
10:00AM Feb NAHB housing market indx Feb 38 37
12:45PM Fed Barr Speech
2:30PM Fed Daly Speech
Recent Housing News
Read My Latest Newsletter
Mortgage Rates Back Near 3-Year Lows After Defying Jobs Data
2/13/2026 3:53PM
The bond market drives changes in interest rates. Among bond traders, it's no secret that the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) jobs report is the most consequential monthly economic data. But this time around, the reaction defied expectations. Specifically, if you were to tell market participants the results ahead of time (i.e. 130k jobs created versus a forecast of 70k, and a 4.3% unemploymen... READ MORE
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Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House
P: (407) 255-2047
M: (704) 957-5053
MHOD Portal
8751 Commodity Circle Ste 17
Orlando Fl 32819
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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.