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Only Modestly Weaker After Trump Says Ceasefire is Over
Only Modestly Weaker After Trump Says Ceasefire is Over
Iran-related headlines have jumped back to the realm of relevance this week and Wednesday morning's overnight session kicked things up another notch. Trump declared the ceasefire to be over and is currently saying peace deal negotiations may not even continue. Markets definitely reacted with oil and Treasury yields spiking overnight. The interesting part is the magnitude of the spike. It was roughly 4bps in terms of 10yr yields and almost half those losses were recovered over the following 2 hours. Oil prices rose roughly $3 and have dropped almost $2 since the initial spike. Bottom line: markets are trading the news, but with a grain of salt.
Hormuz Back in The News
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jul 08 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jul/03 Mortgage Market Index | Jul/03 | 266.3 | 272.2 | |
| 7:00AM | Jul/03 MBA Refi Index | Jul/03 | 794.4 | 828.7 | |
| 7:00AM | Jul/03 MBA Purchase Index | Jul/03 | 169.5 | 170.6 | |
| 10:30AM | Jul/03 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jul/03 | 2.998M | -2.4M | -3.775M |
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 39 | |||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Minutes | ||||
| 3:00PM | May Consumer credit (bl) | May | $17.1B | $20.73B | |
| Thursday, Jul 09 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jul/04 Jobless Claims (k) | Jul/04 | 218K | 215K | |
| 8:30AM | Jun/27 Continued Claims (k) | Jun/27 | 1820K | 1814K | |
| 9:00AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $6.637 billion | |||
| 10:00AM | Jun Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Jun | 3.2% | ||
| 10:00AM | Jun Existing home sales (ml) | Jun | 4.20M | 4.17M | |
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 22 | |||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 5.020% | |||
| 1:30PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
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