Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House

Juxtaposition of Escalation and De-escalation Keeping Bonds Volatile

Juxtaposition of Escalation and De-escalation Keeping Bonds Volatile

Tuesday was notable for financial markets' attempts to trade the Iran war due to the conspicuous juxtaposition of newswires that spoke to opposing developments. Around 1pm ET, troop deployment news sent yields to the highs of the day. A little over an hour later, the newswires gave the impression that the war was almost over--so much so that bonds were willing to retrace most of the 1pm losses. Nonetheless, yields were already elevated by 1pm, which means it was a weaker trading session overall. Material developments in the war will continue to be more actionable for markets than scheduled economic data--especially this week. 

Market Movement Recap
08:51 AM

Losing ground in choppy trading as oil rebounds. MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 4.2bps at 4.389

09:54 AM

weakest levels. MBS down 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr up 6.2bps at 4.409

12:30 PM

Off lows, but choppy.  MBS down 5 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.373

01:03 PM

Bumpy 2 year Treasury auction causing weakness.  MBS down 3/8ths again and 10yr up 7.2bps at 4.42

03:33 PM

recovering a bit after "war over soon" headlines. MBS still down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 3.8bps at 4.385

Latest Video Analysis

Juxtaposition of War Headlines Keeping Bonds Volatile

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 98.33 -0.06 10YR 4.380% +0.033% 3/24/2026 5:41PM EST
Apparently, bonds aren't quite done responding to escalation/de-escalation headlines for the day, and the latest examples are having the biggest impact.  ISRAELI CHANNEL 12: ONE-MONTH CEASEFIRE TO BE ANNOUNCED UNDER MECHANISM BEING DEVELOPED BY WITKOFF & KUSHNER MBS are quickly back up to unchanged levels. Same story for 10yr yields, now unchanged at 4.346.   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.55% +0.06% 15YR Fixed 6.12% +0.07% 3/24/2026
March 2026 continues to be an unpleasant month for mortgage rates --a fact almost exclusively due to the Iran war. Even if the war were to end today, there's been sufficient disruption to infrastructure and a big enough initial spike in energy prices to create what economists refer to as "second round effects." In simpler terms, this means that inflation expectations and interest rates will not immediately return to February's levels simply because the war is over. That'...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Mar 24
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 10K 9K
9:20AM NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) $8.071 billion
9:45AM Mar S&P Global Composite PMI Mar 51.4 51.9
9:45AM Mar S&P Global Services PMI Mar 51.1 51.5 51.7
9:45AM Mar S&P Global Manuf. PMI Mar 52.4 51.3 51.6
10:00AM Feb New Home Sales (%) (%) Feb
10:00AM Feb New Home Sales (ml) Feb 0.745M
1:00PM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 69
6:30PM Fed Barr Speech
Wednesday, Mar 25
7:00AM Mar/20 MBA Refi Index Mar/20 1341.0
7:00AM Mar/20 MBA Purchase Index Mar/20 172.9
7:00AM Mar/20 Mortgage Market Index Mar/20 347.1
8:30AM Feb Import prices mm (%) Feb 0.5% 0.2%
10:30AM Mar/20 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Mar/20 0.5M 6.156M
11:30AM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 28
11:30AM 2-Year FRN Auction (%) 0.099%
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 70
4:10PM Fed Miran Speech
Read My Latest Newsletter
While the word "regime" is often seen in a geopolitical context, it's also common in financial markets. With respect to rates, the most recent regime involved steady improvement starting in May 2025 and ending 3 weeks ago. Since then, a new regime has been taking over and it kicked into high gear this week. Under the previous regime, bonds (which dictate rates) were operating on the following p... READ MORE
Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House