Yields Magically and Mysteriously Sink to Lowest Levels in 2 Months.
Yields Magically and Mysteriously Sink to Lowest Levels in 2 Months.
At the 3pm CME close, 10yr yields were just over 4.10%--the lowest level since December 4th, 2025. In light of yesterday's stronger jobs report, today's absence of market moving data, and this week's Treasury auction cycle, it is impossible to account for these gains without conjecture and assumption. Certainly heavy selling in stocks and commodities deserves some credit for driving a flight to safety that benefited bonds, but we've definitely seen similar stock selling without the bond market benefit. Apart from that, the guesses get more tenuous as we'd have to rely on things that can't be seen or measured. Friday's CPI carries some volatility potential, but not in the same league as the jobs report.
Magical Mystery Rally
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Feb 13 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | Jan m/m Headline CPI (%) | Jan | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan m/m CORE CPI (%) | Jan | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan y/y Headline CPI (%) | Jan | 2.5% | 2.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan y/y CORE CPI (%) | Jan | 2.5% | 2.6% | |
| Monday, Feb 16 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Presidents Day | ||||