Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House

Holiday Week Volatility With Zero Consequence

Holiday Week Volatility With Zero Consequence

Although there was a brief negative reaction to this morning's economic data, the impact was minimal. Random holiday-week volatility accounted for bigger swings, but those swings ultimately canceled each other out. By the 3pm close, bonds were close enough to unchanged levels. That makes today truly forgettable in the bigger picture. Trading doesn't get real/serious again until December.  NOTE: Friday is technically open until 2pm ET, but as is our custom, we will only publish commentary on an "as-needed" basis (i.e. if the movement is minimal, you won't hear from us until Monday).

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Holiday Week Volatility With Zero Consequence

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.86 -0.03 10YR 3.996% -0.001% 11/26/2025 5:59PM EST
Bonds were just slightly weaker overnight but are losing more ground in early trading.  The culprit: both of this morning's 8:30am ET economic releases.  Jobless Claims data is probably the bigger deal as it continues to show no signs of labor market distress (216k vs 225k f'cast). The other report, Durable Goods, is more stale (pre-shutdown), but was also clearly upbeat with the core cap-ex figure coming in at a robust 0.9% vs 0.2% f'cast. The resulting sell-off in...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.22% +0.02% 15YR Fixed 5.78% +0.03% 11/26/2025
Wednesday was far less eventful than the first two days of the week as far as mortgage rates were concerned. The average lender raised rates just a hair, but apart from yesterday, these are the lowest levels in a month and very close to the lowest levels in more than 3 years. Bond markets and mortgage lenders will be closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving. While Friday is technically open, 9 times out of 10, it may as well not be. In other words, the Friday after Thanksgiving r...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Nov 27
12:00AM Thanksgiving Day
Friday, Nov 28
2:00PM Day After Thanksgiving
Read My Latest Newsletter
This week marked the return of delayed economic data from the government shutdown. Specifically, we received the important jobs report that was set to come out in early October. While this is September's data, and thus a bit stale, it was nonetheless responsible for the biggest volume spike in the bond market since the last Fed meeting. Such is the power of the jobs report relative to other econom... READ MORE
Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House