Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House

Not Reading Too Much Into Late Day Reversal

Not Reading Too Much Into Late Day Reversal

Bonds rallied quickly in response to this morning's jobs report and pressed to even stronger levels by mid-day. That's the point in the day that most traders (the ones actually working) consider bonds to be "closed." You're free to do the same and count today as a win. But in the noon-2pm hour, a decent chunk of the AM gains were erased. We wouldn't read too much into those and instead view them as a facet of pre-holiday-weekend illiquidity and/or position squaring. This doesn't imply directionality in the future. It just means we have to wait for next week to get a clean read on market sentiment.

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Not Reading Too Much Into Late Day Reversal

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0
98.09
+0.05 
10YR TREASURY
4.486
+0.005 
7/2/2026 5:59PM EST
There are less than 14 minutes to go in today's holiday-shortened session, but bonds are back in line with their weakest post-data trading levels heading into the close. 10yr yields are up 1.1bps at 4.492 and MBS are 7 ticks (.22) below their intraday highs (though still a few ticks higher on the day). Due to morning rate sheet print times, negative reprices aren't especially likely, but jumpier lenders could technically be considering it. The best way to use this alert is...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.60%
-0.05% 
15YR Fixed
6.17%
-0.02% 
7/2/2026
Today is a half day for financial markets, which is a typical feature of a federal holiday weekend. Because tomorrow is fully closed, the big jobs report (normally a Friday affair) was instead released this morning. It ended up helping rates move lower. The jobs report (officially "The Employment Situation") measures new jobs created (or lost) each month in addition to the unemployment rate. The job count was much weaker than expected and, although the unemployment rate tec...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Jul 03
12:00AM Happy 4th!!
Monday, Jul 06
9:45AM Jun S&P Global Services PMI Jun 51.3 50.7
9:45AM Jun S&P Global Composite PMI Jun 52.2 51.5
10:00AM Jun ISM Services Employment Jun 47.9
10:00AM Jun ISM Services New Orders Jun 57.3
10:00AM Jun ISM Biz Activity Jun 57.7
10:00AM Jun ISM Services Prices Jun 71.3
10:00AM Jun ISM N-Mfg PMI Jun 54.2 54.5
11:00AM Fed Waller Speech
Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House