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Sideways and Stronger, But Risks Remain
Sideways and Stronger, But Risks Remain
Monday was "nice." Bonds rallied more than a little bit and held those gains in an exceptionally flat manner all day. But there are caveats. Apart from last Friday, today's yields matched the long-term highs seen on July 23rd. Or on a more timely note, the rally didn't fully erase Friday's weakness. Additionally, strength was not a given. It required a fairly substantial drop in oil prices stepping from a fresh round Iran war optimism. This as been a fickle friend to say the least, though we'll never turn down the visit. Ample past precedent is a reminder that things can change quickly with respect to geopolitics. Last but not least, while econ data had no lasting impact today, Friday's jobs report is on another level.
Esoteric Forex Drama Blasts Bonds, Maybe
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Aug 03 | |||||
| 9:45AM | Jul S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Jul | 53.9 | 53.8 | 53.9 |
| 10:00AM | Jul ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Jul | 71.1 | 70.3 | 73.0 |
| 10:00AM | Jul ISM Manufacturing PMI | Jul | 55.6 | 54 | 53.3 |
| 10:00AM | Jul ISM Manufacturing Employment | Jul | 52.8 | 49.7 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun Construction spending (%) | Jun | -0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 2:00PM | Jul Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Jul | 16.3M | 16.5M | |
| 2:00PM | Loan Officer Survey | ||||
| Tuesday, Aug 04 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jun Trade Gap (bl) | Jun | $-73.0B | $-77.6B | |
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $5.179 billion | |||
| 10:00AM | Jun JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Jun | 3.065M | ||
| 10:00AM | Aug IBD economic optimism | Aug | 47.5 | 45.5 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun Factory orders mm (%) | Jun | 0.2% | -1.3% | |
| 10:00AM | Jun USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Jun | 7.45M | 7.594M | |
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.700% | |||
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