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Fairly Flat After Ho-Hum CPI
Fairly Flat After Ho-Hum CPI
Most understand this, but some forget: CPI numbers on econ calendars are not prices. They're the change in prices. We bring that up in case anyone thinks today's core monthly CPI of 0.2 means that prices are lower than last month when the core was 0.4. While it's a decent monthly number and lower than the expected 0.3, it's also 2.4% if repeated for 12 months (still above the 2.0% target). Plus, we often forget that the 2.0% inflation target is for headline CPI--not core--and that is running at 4.2% y/y presently. Thankfully, forecasters were right on target with headline expectations, so despite being a lot higher than anyone would like, the bond market is not surprised and thus holding at levels just slightly better than before the data.
Bonds End at Strongest Levels
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jun 10 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Jun/05 Mortgage Market Index | Jun/05 | 280.1 | 252.8 | |
| 7:00AM | Jun/05 MBA Refi Index | Jun/05 | 848.7 | 736.2 | |
| 7:00AM | Jun/05 MBA Purchase Index | Jun/05 | 176.9 | 164.8 | |
| 8:30AM | May y/y Headline CPI (%) | May | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% |
| 8:30AM | May m/m Headline CPI (%) | May | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| 8:30AM | May y/y CORE CPI (%) | May | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| 8:30AM | May m/m CORE CPI (%) | May | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 10:30AM | Jun/05 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jun/05 | -7.228M | -4M | -7.974M |
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 39 | |||
| 2:00PM | May Federal budget (bl) | May | $-275M | $215B | |
| Thursday, Jun 11 | |||||
| 8:30AM | May PPI y/y | May | 6.4% | 6% | |
| 8:30AM | May Core PPI m/m (%) | May | 0.5% | 1% | |
| 8:30AM | May/30 Continued Claims (k) | May/30 | 1780K | 1777K | |
| 8:30AM | Jun/06 Jobless Claims (k) | Jun/06 | 219K | 225K | |
| 8:30AM | May PPI m/m (%) | May | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 8:30AM | May Core PPI y/y (%) | May | 5.4% | 5.2% | |
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 22 | |||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 5.046% | |||
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