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Month-End Volatility, But No Bearing on Bigger Picture
Month-End Volatility, But No Bearing on Bigger Picture
It was a deceptively interesting Friday for the bond market with month-end trading creating volatility that seemed relevant at first glance. Those trades easily overshadowed the calmer market movement seen in the morning hours following the PCE data, but that was a very low bar. In the grand scheme of month-end trading days (especially those that fall on the Friday before a 3 day weekend), today's volatility was average. Next week holds far more promise to shape the debate over a 25 vs 50bp Fed rate cut and, consequently, the next big move for the bond market.
Month-End Volatility, But No Bearing on Bigger Picture
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Aug 30 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jul Personal Income (%) | Jul | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Jul Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Jul | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| 8:30AM | Jul PCE price index mm (%) | Jul | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Jul Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Jul | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Jul PCE (y/y) (%) | Jul | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% |
| 8:30AM | Jul Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | Jul | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| 9:45AM | Aug Chicago PMI | Aug | 46.1 | 45.5 | 45.3 |
| 10:00AM | Aug Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Aug | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| 10:00AM | Aug U Mich conditions | Aug | 61.3 | 60.9 | 62.7 |
| 10:00AM | Aug Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Aug | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| 10:00AM | Aug Michigan Consumer Expectations Final | Aug | 72.1 | 72.1 | 68.8 |
| 10:00AM | Aug Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Aug | 67.9 | 68 | 66.4 |
| 1:00PM | Aug/30 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Aug/30 | 483 | 483 | |
| 1:00PM | Aug/30 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Aug/30 | 583 | 585 | |
| Monday, Sep 02 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Labor Day | ||||
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