Juxtaposition of Escalation and De-escalation Keeping Bonds Volatile
Juxtaposition of Escalation and De-escalation Keeping Bonds Volatile
Tuesday was notable for financial markets' attempts to trade the Iran war due to the conspicuous juxtaposition of newswires that spoke to opposing developments. Around 1pm ET, troop deployment news sent yields to the highs of the day. A little over an hour later, the newswires gave the impression that the war was almost over--so much so that bonds were willing to retrace most of the 1pm losses. Nonetheless, yields were already elevated by 1pm, which means it was a weaker trading session overall. Material developments in the war will continue to be more actionable for markets than scheduled economic data--especially this week.
Losing ground in choppy trading as oil rebounds. MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 4.2bps at 4.389
weakest levels. MBS down 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr up 6.2bps at 4.409
Off lows, but choppy. MBS down 5 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.373
Bumpy 2 year Treasury auction causing weakness. MBS down 3/8ths again and 10yr up 7.2bps at 4.42
recovering a bit after "war over soon" headlines. MBS still down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 3.8bps at 4.385
Juxtaposition of War Headlines Keeping Bonds Volatile
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Mar 24 | |||||
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 10K | 9K | ||
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $8.071 billion | |||
| 9:45AM | Mar S&P Global Composite PMI | Mar | 51.4 | 51.9 | |
| 9:45AM | Mar S&P Global Services PMI | Mar | 51.1 | 51.5 | 51.7 |
| 9:45AM | Mar S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Mar | 52.4 | 51.3 | 51.6 |
| 10:00AM | Feb New Home Sales (%) (%) | Feb | |||
| 10:00AM | Feb New Home Sales (ml) | Feb | 0.745M | ||
| 1:00PM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 69 | |||
| 6:30PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| Wednesday, Mar 25 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Mar/20 MBA Refi Index | Mar/20 | 1341.0 | ||
| 7:00AM | Mar/20 MBA Purchase Index | Mar/20 | 172.9 | ||
| 7:00AM | Mar/20 Mortgage Market Index | Mar/20 | 347.1 | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb Import prices mm (%) | Feb | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 10:30AM | Mar/20 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Mar/20 | 0.5M | 6.156M | |
| 11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 28 | |||
| 11:30AM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.099% | |||
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 4:10PM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||