Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House

Bonds Lose Almost All The Overnight Gains

Bonds Lose Almost All The Overnight Gains

Bonds rallied sharply overnight--adding onto an already decent rally yesterday afternoon that took 10yr yields from 4.38% to 4.23% in less than 24 hours. Now at Wednesday's close, we're back to unchanged levels near 4.30%.  The move follows a similar correction seen in longer-term oil futures and, in a general sense, a news cycle that made the ceasefire seem increasingly tenuous as the day progressed. The absence of a bigger, sustained rally speaks to the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. withdrawal from the Middle East as well as lingering impacts on energy costs that may still flow through to inflation data.

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Bonds Give Up Almost All The Overnight Gains

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.06 0.00 10YR 4.289% -0.007% 4/9/2026 4:39AM EST
Bonds continue sinking as the ceasefire is called into question by Iran. 10yr now unchanged on the day and MBS getting close (up only 2 ticks or 0.06). This is more than a quarter point below many lenders' rate sheet print times, thus making negative reprices increasingly likely.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.40% -0.04% 15YR Fixed 6.00% -0.02% 4/8/2026
It's a fluid situation in financial markets on Wednesday. The 2-week ceasefire in the Iran war caused a big reaction last night, but the benefit to the bond market (bonds dictate rates) has been increasingly wiped out during domestic hours.  If we measure the reversal versus yesterday's closing levels at 5pm ET, the reversal is almost complete. But bonds were already rallying in the afternoon due to expectations for the official ceasefire news. All that to say, we're s...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Apr 09
8:30AM Apr/04 Jobless Claims (k) Apr/04 210K 202K
8:30AM Mar/28 Continued Claims (k) Mar/28 1840K 1841K
8:30AM Feb PCE prices (m/m) (%) Feb 0.4% 0.3%
8:30AM Q4 PCE Prices (Q/Q) Q4 2.9% 2.8%
8:30AM Feb Core PCE (y/y) (%) Feb 3% 3.1%
8:30AM Feb Core PCE (m/m) (%) Feb 0.4% 0.4%
8:30AM Q4 Core PCE Prices QoQ Q4 2.7% 2.9%
8:30AM Feb PCE (y/y) (%) Feb 2.8% 2.8%
8:30AM Q4 GDP Final Sales (%) Q4 0.4% 4.5%
8:30AM Q4 GDP (%) Q4 0.7% 4.4%
8:30AM Q4 Corporate profits (% ) Q4 4.7%
12:00PM WASDE Report (%)
1:00PM 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 22
1:00PM 30-Year Bond Auction 4.871%
Friday, Apr 10
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 30YR
8:30AM Mar m/m Headline CPI (%) Mar 0.9% 0.3%
8:30AM Mar m/m CORE CPI (%) Mar 0.3% 0.2%
8:30AM Mar y/y CORE CPI (%) Mar 2.7% 2.5%
8:30AM Mar y/y Headline CPI (%) Mar 3.3% 2.4%
10:00AM Feb Factory orders mm (%) Feb -0.1% 0.1%
10:00AM Apr Consumer Sentiment (ip) Apr 52 53.3
10:00AM Apr U Mich conditions Apr 55.8
10:00AM Apr Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Apr 3.2%
10:00AM Apr Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Apr 3.8%
2:00PM Mar Federal budget (bl) Mar $-308B
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First things first, due to the market's reaction to the Iran war, mortgage rates remain much higher than they were at the end of February. That said, they definitely did not move higher this week. You may have seen contrary headlines on Wednesday and Thursday. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and Freddie Mac release their weekly rate surveys on those days, respectively. Both reported shar... READ MORE
Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House