Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House

Today Was "Nice" For Bonds

Today Was "Nice" For Bonds

Bonds bucked their prevailing trend and managed to move slightly lower in yield today. Unlike yesterday's session which had no clear correlation with underlying events, today's move traced a drop in oil prices fairly clearly. Some analysts thought that an improvement in French government bonds may have been mildly encouraging as well, but that would require drawing the opposite conclusions from last week's narrative about French bond turmoil benefiting the U.S. as a safer haven. In any event, the rally was too small to merit that much thought. Yields encountered resistance at 5.26%, but could also be broadly finding buying support when yields crest 5.3%. Bottom line, today was "nice," but in and of itself, not enough to suggest a meaningful shift in momentum. 

Latest Video Analysis

Today Was Nice For Bonds

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0
97.82
-0.03 
10YR TREASURY
5.307
0.000 
10/5/2026 8:50PM EST
If rate movement were a car, it's been driving pretty recklessly recently, and definitely not keeping good pace with other motorists. But every now and then, we see a break in the craziness. The overnight trading session provided an example. The bond car set its adaptive cruise control to follow the car in front of it (oil prices, in today's case). That's left us just a bit stronger to start, but it's not an inspiring reversal so much as a coincidental mini-correction.  ...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
7.56%
-0.05% 
15YR Fixed
7.22%
-0.01% 
10/6/2026
Mortgage rates actually fell today--something they've done only 7 times since August 25th. While the outright levels remain near the highest since 2003, they're near the lowest in just over a week with top-tier 30yr fixed rates down to 7.56% for the average lender. What gives? Is this a sign that recent upward momentum is starting to wane? It's too soon to conclude such things, but it is somewhat encouraging that yesterday's long-term high was basically right in line with ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Oct 06
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 23.75K 20K
8:30AM Aug Trade Gap (bl) Aug $-105.6B $-102B $-88.6B
10:00AM Oct IBD economic optimism Oct 46.8 44.5 45.6
1:00PM 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 58
Wednesday, Oct 07
7:00AM Oct/02 Mortgage Market Index Oct/02 213.6
7:00AM Oct/02 MBA Refi Index Oct/02 557.8
7:00AM Oct/02 MBA Purchase Index Oct/02 148.2
10:30AM Oct/02 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Oct/02 0.922M
11:00AM Sep Consumer Inflation Expectations Sep 3.6%
1:00PM 10-yr Note Auction (bl) 39
2:00PM FOMC Minutes
3:00PM Aug Consumer credit (bl) Aug $15B $18.06B
Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House