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Uneventful Monday; MBS Underperform
Uneventful Monday; MBS Underperform
In the bigger picture, bonds were flat on Monday without any major volatility in either direction. But if we break out the microscope, we find longer-term Treasuries rallying modestly while MBS lost 1 tick by the 3pm close. In today's case, the MBS underperformance is most easily attributed to Treasuries' underperformance on Friday. Specifically, 10yr yields pressed up to new highs by the end of the day whereas MBS held just slightly above their mid-day lows. Said another way, if we look back 2 trading sessions instead of 1, there's no noticeable underperformance. The flat vibes are consistent with an absence of actionable info. This will change as the week continues, especially on Wednesday (Fed Minutes) and Thursday (NFP).
Modestly stronger overnight with a slight pullback at 7am. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.5bps at 4.135
MBS still up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 2.3bps at 4.127
MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.8bps at 4.132
Uneventful Monday. MBS Underperform
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Nov 17 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Nov NY Fed Manufacturing | Nov | 18.70 | 6 | 10.70 |
| 9:00AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 9:30AM | Fed Jefferson Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Aug Construction spending (%) | Aug | 0.2% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| 12:00PM | NOPA Crush Report (%) | ||||
| 1:00PM | Oct Federal budget (bl) | Oct | $50B | $198B | |
| 1:00PM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| 3:35PM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 7:55PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
| Tuesday, Nov 18 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Sep Import prices mm (%) | Sep | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Export prices mm (%) | Sep | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Export prices mm (%) | Oct | |||
| 8:30AM | Oct Import prices mm (%) | Oct | |||
| 10:00AM | Nov NAHB housing market indx | Nov | 37 | 37 | |
| 10:30AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
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