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Bullets Dodged
Bullets Dodged
We've seen our fair share of bonds punishing the market on occasions where bond traders were forced to worry about a significant change in a fiscal or monetary regime (or the absence of a desired change). Wednesday's reaction to the Fed ran the risk of setting the stage for similar momentum. While it did technically continue, it was far less forceful on Thursday. Additionally, the evidence was limited to curve steepening rather than outright losses (apart from 30yr bonds). In short, bonds fired a warning shot, but they're not going to obsess about it unless given additional reasons. Econ data was plentiful this morning, but had little impact on trading levels. Oil/fuel price correlations remain and should continue to provide guidance for bonds until war-related volatility is in the rearview.
Bullets Dodged
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Jul 30 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jul/25 Jobless Claims (k) | Jul/25 | 197K | 200K | 187K |
| 8:30AM | Jul/18 Continued Claims (k) | Jul/18 | 1782K | 1800K | 1796K |
| 8:30AM | Q2 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q2 | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.4% |
| 8:30AM | Q2 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q2 | 2.2% | 1.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Q2 GDP (%) | Q2 | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| 8:30AM | Jun Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Jun | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Jun Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Jun | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% |
| 8:30AM | Q2 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q2 | 5.1% | 4.6% | |
| 8:30AM | Jun PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Jun | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Jun PCE (y/y) (%) | Jun | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.1% |
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $5.179 billion | |||
| Friday, Jul 31 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Q2 Employment costs (%) | Q2 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 9:45AM | Jul Chicago PMI | Jul | 56 | 56.7 | |
| 10:00AM | Jul U Mich conditions | Jul | 54.9 | 47.7 | |
| 10:00AM | Jul Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Jul | 54.0 | 49.5 | |
| 10:00AM | Jul Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Jul | 4.2% | 4.6% | |
| 10:00AM | Jul Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Jul | 3.3% | 3.3% | |
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