Waiting For Whatever's Next
Waiting For Whatever's Next
We find ourselves in a bit of a lull in the bond market this week, and we don't object! Yields aren't screaming back up toward recent highs. Nor are they extending last week's swift rally. Both would cause problems for different reasons. Consolidating last week's rally in this narrow, sideways pattern is arguably the very best thing that could have happened this week. Whatever happens next is likely to be driven by a combination of the evolving narrative on tech sector concerns, econ data, and the Fed policy stance (which is really just a function of the econ data). In general, it is the tech sector narrative that has kept us in this week's lull. There too, investors are waiting for whatever's next.
Tech Concerns Keeping Bonds in The Game
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Oct 21 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Oct/16 Mortgage Market Index | Oct/16 | 188.6 | 199.2 | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/16 MBA Refi Index | Oct/16 | 503.1 | 513.5 | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/16 MBA Purchase Index | Oct/16 | 129.2 | 139.3 | |
| 10:30AM | Oct/16 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Oct/16 | -3.061M | -0.8M | -8.557M |
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 13 | |||
| Thursday, Oct 22 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Oct/17 Jobless Claims (k) | Oct/17 | 200K | 199K | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/10 Continued Claims (k) | Oct/10 | 1720K | 1710K | |
| 10:00AM | Sep CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Sep | -0.1% | -0.1% | |
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 26 | |||