Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House

Ceasefire Uncertainty Adds to Losses

Ceasefire Uncertainty Adds to Losses

Bonds were just a bit weaker this morning after the weekly ADP data. Just before 11am ET, several newswires called ceasefire negotiations into question. Chief among these was a report that Iran had not confirmed its intent to participate. Despite the seemingly significant consequences, bonds only rose about 2bps in terms of 10yr yields. By the 3pm CME close, yields were up less than 4bps on the day and still well inside the prevailing consolidation range. There's been a bit more weakness since then owing to new headlines indicating that neither Iran nor JD Vance are attending Wednesday's planned talks in Pakistan. 

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Ceasefire Uncertainty Adds to Losses

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.25 +0.07 10YR 4.285% -0.011% 4/22/2026 6:08AM EST
Bonds are right back in line with the levels from before the last alert after the following newswire: TRUMP: EXTEND THE CEASEFIRE UNTIL IRAN PROPOSAL SUBMITTED A few lenders had already repriced. Another few could already be in motion. Otherwise, this largely alleviates negative reprice risk mentioned in the last alert.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.33% +0.03% 15YR Fixed 5.92% +0.01% 4/21/2026
Technically and officially, today's average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate is the highest since last Monday. The catch is that there hasn't been much movement since then with the overall range being limited to 0.04%.  Today's jump was the largest upward movement during that time. There was some upward pressure on rates from stronger employment data in the morning, but the market was even more focused on the uncertain status of US/Iran peace talks.  As the dom...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Apr 22
7:00AM Apr/17 Mortgage Market Index Apr/17 281.0
7:00AM Apr/17 MBA Refi Index Apr/17 966.8
7:00AM Apr/17 MBA Purchase Index Apr/17 159.5
10:30AM Apr/17 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Apr/17 -1M -0.913M
1:00PM 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 13
Thursday, Apr 23
8:30AM Apr/11 Continued Claims (k) Apr/11 1820K 1818K
8:30AM Apr/18 Jobless Claims (k) Apr/18 212K 207K
9:45AM Apr S&P Global Services PMI Apr 50 49.8
9:45AM Apr S&P Global Manuf. PMI Apr 52.5 52.3
9:45AM Apr S&P Global Composite PMI Apr 50.3
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 26
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The good news: mortgage rates ended the week at the lowest levels in more than a month. The puzzling news: rates fell only modestly on Friday even though the bond market said they could have fallen more. Mortgage lenders consider several factors when deciding where to set mortgage rates. By far and away, the bond market is the most important of those factors. But sometimes rates don't do exa... READ MORE
Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House