Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House

Calm and Slightly Stronger, But Volatility Will be Back

Calm and Slightly Stronger, But Volatility Will be Back

Once or twice per week, the bond market manages to post a fairly calm trading day against the prevailing backdrop of generally higher volatility. Today was such a day. The most helpful catalyst was an absence of any major war-related headlines and associated oil price volatility. That said, it's a near certainty that war-related volatility will be back in the coming week. 

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Calm and Slightly Stronger, But Volatility Will be Back

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0
98.83
+0.18  
10YR TREASURY
4.364
-0.027  
5/8/2026 3:50PM EST
Everyone's been talking about the ongoing change in the significance of the payroll number in the jobs report. OK, not everyone, but economists and bond traders for sure. The issue is the rapid shift in the size of the labor force as well as recent volatility in the multiple jobholder category, among other things. Specifically, the labor force has been shrinking since November and was already growing at a slower rate before then. That means it takes a lower NFP number to keep...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.42%
-0.02%  
15YR Fixed
5.99%
-0.01%  
5/8/2026
It ended up being a decent round trip for rates this week. Monday kicked things off with a jump to the highest level in more than a month, and the third highest since August 2025. But that ended up being the only day where rates went higher.  Wednesday brough the biggest chunk of the recovery with MND's daily rate index dropping 0.10%.  Tuesday and Friday (today) each added a 0.02% drop, taking the index to 6.42% after ending last week at 6.44%. War-related head...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, May 08
5:45AM Fed Cook Speech
8:30AM Apr Participation Rate Apr 61.8% 61.9%
8:30AM Apr Average earnings mm (%) Apr 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
8:30AM Apr Unemployment rate mm (%) Apr 4.3% 4.3% 4.3%
8:30AM Apr Non Farm Payrolls (k) Apr 115K 62K 178K
10:00AM May Consumer Sentiment (ip) May 48.2 49.5 49.8
10:00AM May U Mich conditions May 47.8 52 52.5
10:00AM May Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) May 3.4% 3.5%
10:00AM May Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) May 4.5% 4.7%
11:05AM Fed Goolsbee Speech
2:20PM Fed Goolsbee Speech
7:30PM Fed Daly Speech
7:30PM Fed Goolsbee Speech
7:30PM Fed Waller Speech
7:30PM Fed Bowman Speech
Monday, May 11
10:00AM Apr Exist. home sales % chg (%) Apr -3.6%
10:00AM Apr Existing home sales (ml) Apr 4.05M 3.98M
10:20AM NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) $7.587 billion
1:00PM 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 58
Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House