5% Yields Bringing Value Buyers?
5% Yields Bringing Value Buyers?
With no meaningful econ data on tap today and no high stakes events, bonds are left to watch news headlines and attend to last-minute positioning goals before tomorrow's Fed announcement. There's a bit more of a disconnect between oil prices and bond yields than normal today. Earlier in the overnight session, yields actually led the way higher. In the past hour, however, oil is spiking and yields are trying to hold under yesterday's domestic session highs. This might (MIGHT!) speak to some level of exhaustion among sellers in the long end of the curve, or some value buyers who like the idea of 5% rate of return on fixed income.
Decent Mid-Day Recovery
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Sep 15 | |||||
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 16.25K | 12K | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep NY Fed Manufacturing | Sep | 7.60 | 14.75 | 20.60 |
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 13 | |||
| Wednesday, Sep 16 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Sep/11 MBA Refi Index | Sep/11 | 687.3 | ||
| 7:00AM | Sep/11 MBA Purchase Index | Sep/11 | 157.5 | ||
| 7:00AM | Sep/11 Mortgage Market Index | Sep/11 | 240.6 | ||
| 8:30AM | Aug Import prices mm (%) | Aug | 0.4% | -0.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Retail Sales (%) | Aug | 0.8% | -0.6% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Aug | 0.4% | -0.4% | |
| 10:00AM | Jul Business Inventories (% ) | Jul | 0.3% | 0% | |
| 10:00AM | Sep NAHB housing market indx | Sep | 34 | 35 | |
| 10:30AM | Sep/11 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Sep/11 | -0.391M | ||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Economic Projections | ||||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr | 3.6% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr | 3.4% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Longer | 3.1% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Current | 3.8% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr | 3.1% | |||
| 2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4% | 3.75% | ||
| 2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||