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Weaker Start. Bonds Not Recovering With Oil So Far
Weaker Start. Bonds Not Recovering With Oil So Far
The overnight and early domestic trading hours have brought a mix of familiar and unfamiliar patterns. Up until roughly 8:30am, we saw a very familiar correlation between oil prices and bond yields. Both spiked at 6am following reports that 2 Iranian missiles hit a U.S. warship. Those reports were subsequently denied and oil prices made a full recovery. The unfamiliar pattern involves bonds breaking ranks with oil to move noticeably higher at 9:20am. There are no obvious explanations in the news or on the data calendar. That basically leaves conjecture. Given the timing, one possibility is that traders wanted to free up cash to "play" in equities markets during peak earnings season. This could also be driven by structural shifts in response to budget concerns. Either way, yields are very close to last Wednesday's highs (the highest since March 27th).
Some Volatility Surrounding Headlines, But Not Much Change
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, May 04 | |||||
| 8:00AM | Apr Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Apr | 15.9M | 16.0M | 16.3M |
| 10:00AM | Mar Factory orders mm (%) | Mar | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0% |
| 12:50PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Loan Officer Survey | ||||
| Tuesday, May 05 | |||||
| 8:00AM | Feb Building Permits (ml) | Feb | 1.386M | ||
| 8:00AM | Mar Building Permits (ml) | Mar | |||
| 8:30AM | Mar Trade Gap (bl) | Mar | $-60.5B | $-57.3B | |
| 9:45AM | Apr S&P Global Services PMI | Apr | 51.3 | 49.8 | |
| 9:45AM | Apr S&P Global Composite PMI | Apr | 52.0 | 50.3 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb New Home Sales (ml) | Feb | 0.587M | ||
| 10:00AM | Feb New Home Sales (%) (%) | Feb | -17.6% | ||
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM N-Mfg PMI | Apr | 53.7 | 54.0 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Services Employment | Apr | 45.2 | ||
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Services Prices | Apr | 70.7 | ||
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Biz Activity | Apr | 53.9 | ||
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Services New Orders | Apr | 60.6 | ||
| 10:00AM | Mar New Home Sales (%) (%) | Mar | -17.6% | ||
| 10:00AM | Mar JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Mar | 2.974M | ||
| 10:00AM | Mar USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Mar | 6.83M | 6.882M | |
| 10:00AM | Mar New Home Sales (ml) | Mar | 0.668M | ||
| 10:00AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 10:10AM | May IBD economic optimism | May | 42 | 42.8 | |
| 10:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $7.585 billion | |||
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.590% | |||
| 12:30PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
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