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Job Market Shouting "I'm Back!" Bond Market Doesn't Love It
Job Market Shouting "I'm Back!" Bond Market Doesn't Love It
Buzz has been growing around the labor market for the past several months, but today's jobs report went the extra mile to make it official. The job market is officially re-accelerating, or at the very least, it is making a strong claim that it is leveling off in a healthy way after a very long post-covid normalization. Payrolls surged to 172k vs an 85k forecast. The previous report was revised up to 179k from 115k. The unemployment rate held steady at a historically low 4.3% and dropped modestly on an unrounded basis. Meanwhile, the bond market left no doubt that it is more than willing to react to econ data if that data is important enough. 10yr yields are up 5.5bps instantly and MBS are down almost half a point.
Modest Gains Maintained After Intraday Slippage
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Jun 05 | |||||
| 8:30AM | May Participation Rate | May | 61.8% | 61.8% | |
| 8:30AM | May Unemployment rate mm (%) | May | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| 8:30AM | May Non Farm Payrolls (k) | May | 172K | 85K | 115K |
| 8:30AM | May Average earnings mm (%) | May | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 3:00PM | Apr Consumer credit (bl) | Apr | $18B | $24.86B | |
| Monday, Jun 08 | |||||
| 11:00AM | May Consumer Inflation Expectations | May | 3.6% | ||
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