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Ceasefire Uncertainty Adds to Losses
Ceasefire Uncertainty Adds to Losses
Bonds were just a bit weaker this morning after the weekly ADP data. Just before 11am ET, several newswires called ceasefire negotiations into question. Chief among these was a report that Iran had not confirmed its intent to participate. Despite the seemingly significant consequences, bonds only rose about 2bps in terms of 10yr yields. By the 3pm CME close, yields were up less than 4bps on the day and still well inside the prevailing consolidation range. There's been a bit more weakness since then owing to new headlines indicating that neither Iran nor JD Vance are attending Wednesday's planned talks in Pakistan.
Modestly weaker after weekly ADP data. No reaction to Retail Sales. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.268
10yr up 2.4bps at 4.275. MBS down 5 ticks (.16).
MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 4.6bps at 4.296
Sideways since previous update. MBS still down a quarter point and 10yr up 4.4bps at 4.295
MBS are now down nearly 3/8ths and 10yr up almost 6bps at 4.308
MBS back to only being down a quarter point and 10yr up only 4.4bps at 4.294
Ceasefire Uncertainty Adds to Losses
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Apr 21 | |||||
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 54.75K | 39K | ||
| 8:30AM | Mar Retail Sales (%) | Mar | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| 8:30AM | Mar Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Mar | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| 10:00AM | Feb Business Inventories (% ) | Feb | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0% |
| 10:00AM | Mar Pending Home Sales (%) | Mar | 1.5% | 0.1% | 1.8% |
| 10:00AM | Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh Confirmation Hearing | ||||
| 10:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $7.587 billion | |||
| 2:30PM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| Wednesday, Apr 22 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Apr/17 Mortgage Market Index | Apr/17 | 281.0 | ||
| 7:00AM | Apr/17 MBA Refi Index | Apr/17 | 966.8 | ||
| 7:00AM | Apr/17 MBA Purchase Index | Apr/17 | 159.5 | ||
| 10:30AM | Apr/17 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Apr/17 | -1M | -0.913M | |
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 13 | |||
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