Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House

Bonds Erase Most of The AM Losses

Bonds Erase Most of The AM Losses

The bond market was visibly pulled in two directions on Tuesday. This played out in phases, with AM weakness followed by a gradual recovery. But it can also be assumed to be playing out at any given moment as bonds listen to the voices arguing in their own mind. One voice says yields need to go higher due to inflation expectations and Treasury issuance implications.  The other says that Treasuries are still a global safe haven amid geopolitical uncertainty (and, to a lesser extent, that the sell-off through 9am this morning may have been a tad overdone).  Looking at stocks vs bonds, it does indeed look like yesterday was more about inflation fears and new-month positioning while today was a risk-off move that started at the 9:30am NYSE open. 

Market Movement Recap
08:48 AM

Another overnight session with heavy selling. 10yr up 6.4bps at 4.099 and MBS down 9 ticks (.28).

10:58 AM

decent recovery in 10am hour. MBS down less than a quarter point now and 10yr up only 3.3bps at 4.069

01:39 PM

Recovery continues. MBS down only an eighth and 10yr up 1.6bps at 4.052

04:13 PM

Off best levels heading into the close. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.062

Latest Video Analysis

Bonds Erase Most of The AM Losses

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.99 -0.16 10YR 4.043% +0.007% 3/3/2026 5:59PM EST
Bonds sold off again overnight with 10yr yields now challenging the 4.10% technical level in early trading. MBS are down another 3/8ths, roughly. And there's stronger correlation with higher oil prices and rising bond yields. So in light of our contrarian take yesterday, are we now forced to acquiesce to the "higher inflation/higher rates" narrative?  Not entirely. While there's no doubt that a certain contingent of smaller traders are drawing that conclusion, and while ...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.13% +0.01% 15YR Fixed 5.72% +0.04% 3/3/2026
After spending the entirety of last week calmy holding the lowest levels in more than 3 years, mortgage rates jumped sharply higher yesterday. That said, everything's relative. Even after that "sharp" increase, the average rate was still one of the lowest in years apart from last week. There was slightly more cause for concern this morning as the underlying bond market increasingly swooned.  When bonds lost ground, rates move higher.  But unlike yesterday, which...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Mar 03
9:55AM Fed Williams Speech
10:10AM Mar IBD economic optimism Mar 47.5 50.1 48.8
11:55AM Fed Kashkari Speech
6:00PM Feb Total Vehicle Sales (ml) Feb 15.8M 15.2M 14.9M
Wednesday, Mar 04
7:00AM Feb/27 MBA Refi Index Feb/27 1432.9
7:00AM Feb/27 MBA Purchase Index Feb/27 149.7
7:00AM Feb/27 Mortgage Market Index Feb/27 340.2
8:15AM Feb ADP jobs (k) Feb 50K 22K
9:45AM Feb S&P Global Composite PMI Feb 52.3 53
9:45AM Feb S&P Global Services PMI Feb 52.3 52.7
10:00AM Feb ISM Services Employment Feb 50.3
10:00AM Feb ISM Biz Activity Feb 57.4
10:00AM Feb ISM Services Prices Feb 66.6
10:00AM Feb ISM Services New Orders Feb 53.1
10:00AM Feb ISM N-Mfg PMI Feb 53.5 53.8
10:30AM Feb/27 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Feb/27 2.2M 15.989M
2:00PM Fed Beige Book
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Mortgage rates finished the week at their lowest levels since August 2022. In outright terms, this is far from the record lows, but rates set another kind of record. Volatility is a common negative side effect associated with rates hitting multi-year lows. For example, back on January 9th, the MND rate index briefly hit 5.99% before bouncing back to 6.06% later that same day, and 6.21... READ MORE
Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House