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Why Bonds Are Rallying Despite Higher Oil Prices
Why Bonds Are Rallying Despite Higher Oil Prices
Today's most notable development was a fairly large bond rally despite another uptick in oil prices. The leading explanation, by far, is the general notion that investors are increasingly worried about the economic impact of higher oil prices. There is no clean way to measure this in the short term, and even those espousing the notion are reluctant to conclude that it marks a turning point in the broader sell-off. For now, it was a nice way to start the week, even if it also drew strength from the positioning considerations discussed this morning.
Stronger overnight and flat so far. MBS up 3/8ths and 10yr down 6.7bps at 4.367
best levels of the day with MBS up 5/8ths and 10yr down 10.6bps at 4.327
Down an eighth from intraday highs, but still up 14 ticks (.44) on the day. 10yr still down 9bps at 4.345
MBS up only 11 ticks now (down a quarter from highs). 10yr down 8.4bps at 4.35
Why Bonds Are Rallying Despite Higher Oil Prices
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Mar 30 | |||||
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months (%) | $6.726 billion | |||
| 10:30AM | Fed Chair Powell Speech | ||||
| 4:00PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| Tuesday, Mar 31 | |||||
| 9:00AM | Jan FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) | Jan | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9:00AM | Jan CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) | Jan | -0.1% | ||
| 9:00AM | Jan FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) | Jan | 1.8% | ||
| 9:00AM | Jan Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) | Jan | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 9:45AM | Mar Chicago PMI | Mar | 55.8 | 57.7 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Feb | 3.1M | ||
| 10:00AM | Mar CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Mar | 88 | 91.2 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Feb | 6.87M | 6.946M | |
| 12:00PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 12:00PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 3:00PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
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