Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House

Roughly Unchanged After Moderate Headline-Driven Volatility

Roughly Unchanged After Moderate Headline-Driven Volatility

As has been the recent custom, there were dueling headlines concerning the Iran war today with opposing claims regarding the status of the Israel/Lebanon ceasefire. If that sounds like kind of a stretch when it comes to bond market significance, bond traders agreed.  That said, it was still traded to some extent. This resulted in mid-day volatility that took bonds from slightly weaker to slightly stronger territory, and then back to being roughly unchanged. Econ data was a relative non-event in the morning, but Friday's data has a slightly better chance of garnering a response.

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Roughly Unchanged After Moderate Headline-Driven Volatility

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.08 +0.03 10YR 4.294% +0.017% 4/10/2026 6:29AM EST
Bonds are getting back into positive territory after the following newswires: TRUMP ASKED NETANYAHU TO REDUCE BOMBING IN LEBANON TO AID SUCCESSFUL IRAN NEGOTIATIONS, ACCORDING TO NBC REPORTS NETANYAHU MOVES TO START DIRECT TALKS WITH LEBANON Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel will begin direct negotiations with Lebanon, aiming to disarm Hezbollah and establish peaceful relations. He welcomed Lebanon’s call to demilitarize Beirut. These a...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.38% -0.02% 15YR Fixed 5.98% -0.02% 4/9/2026
Many borrowers will see no difference between yesterday and today's mortgage rate quotes. The average lender moved just a hair lower. Once again, the rate market is responding to war-related headlines and their impact on oil prices. Rates don't always care what oil prices are doing, but at present, there's more correlation than normal due to the inflation implications from a protracted conflict. Inflation is the true concern for bonds/rates when it comes to oil. Today's h...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Apr 10
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 30YR
8:30AM Mar m/m Headline CPI (%) Mar 0.9% 0.3%
8:30AM Mar m/m CORE CPI (%) Mar 0.3% 0.2%
8:30AM Mar y/y CORE CPI (%) Mar 2.7% 2.5%
8:30AM Mar y/y Headline CPI (%) Mar 3.3% 2.4%
10:00AM Feb Factory orders mm (%) Feb -0.2% 0.1%
10:00AM Apr Consumer Sentiment (ip) Apr 52 53.3
10:00AM Apr U Mich conditions Apr 55.8
10:00AM Apr Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Apr 3.2%
10:00AM Apr Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Apr 3.8%
2:00PM Mar Federal budget (bl) Mar $-156.75B $-308B
Monday, Apr 13
10:00AM Mar Exist. home sales % chg (%) Mar 1.7%
10:00AM Mar Existing home sales (ml) Mar 4.09M
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First things first, due to the market's reaction to the Iran war, mortgage rates remain much higher than they were at the end of February. That said, they definitely did not move higher this week. You may have seen contrary headlines on Wednesday and Thursday. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and Freddie Mac release their weekly rate surveys on those days, respectively. Both reported shar... READ MORE
Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House