Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House

Early Volatility And a Decent Recovery

Early Volatility And a Decent Recovery

Bonds lost ground in the overnight session after Chinese regulators cautioned banks against holding US Treasuries. That move was short-lived and more than fully erased before 9am ET. Part of the bounce back can be attributed to a newswire quoting Hassett saying we should expect slightly lower jobs numbers. Some may view this as telegraphing advanced knowledge of Wednesday's numbers, but that would be highly unlikely based on the typical protocol (Council of Economic Advisors Chair typically gets advance notice the afternoon before a key economic report).  It was also arguably taken out of context. The rest of the day was uneventful, sideways, and slightly stronger, with bonds ultimately ending at modestly lower yields. MBS were flat.

Market Movement Recap
10:15 AM

Modestly weaker overnight but mostly erased at 8:20am.  10yr up half a bp at 4.218 and MBS down 2 ticks (.06).

02:27 PM

Best levels of the day. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.200

Latest Video Analysis

Early Volatility And a Decent Recovery

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 100.11 +0.10 10YR 4.185% -0.022% 2/10/2026 1:19AM EST
Most nights, Treasuries trade in fairly low volume in a fairly narrow range.  Last night's range wasn't much wider than normal, but most of the movement happened all at once. It was also accompanied by much higher volume than normal. These are surefire signs of the market reacting to data or news. In the current case, that news involved Chinese regulators asked banks to limit their exposure to Treasuries. This sounds more meaningful than it is, and domestic traders agree...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.16% +0.01% 15YR Fixed 5.73% +0.01% 2/9/2026
The past 2 weeks have seen very little volatility for mortgage rates .  After being near 6% for a week in early January, rates rose abruptly to 6.21% (avg top tier 30yr fixed) on January 20th in response to geopolitical drama. They've generally descended since then, but in slow, measured steps.   Today's result was actually a 0.01% increase in the MND rate index, but that's not terrible news considering last week ended at 2 week lows. In the bigger picture, ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Feb 10
6:00AM Jan NFIB Business Optimism Index Jan 99.9 99.5
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 7.75K
8:30AM Dec Import prices mm (%) Dec 0.2%
8:30AM Q4 Employment costs (%) Q4 0.8% 0.8%
9:20AM NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) $8.304 billion
10:00AM Nov Business Inventories (% ) Nov 0.2% 0.3%
11:30AM 6-Week Bill Auction (%) 3.640%
12:00PM Fed Hammack Speech
1:00PM 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 58
1:00PM Fed Logan Speech
Wednesday, Feb 11
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 30YR
7:00AM Feb/06 MBA Refi Index Feb/06 1269.7
7:00AM Feb/06 MBA Purchase Index Feb/06 165.4
7:00AM Feb/06 Mortgage Market Index Feb/06 330.8
8:30AM Jan Unemployment rate mm (%) Jan 4.4% 4.4%
8:30AM Jan Non Farm Payrolls (k) Jan 70K 50K
10:15AM Fed Bowman Speech
10:30AM Feb/06 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Feb/06 -3.455M
1:00PM 10-yr Note Auction (bl) 42
2:00PM Jan Federal budget (bl) Jan $-145B
7:00PM Fed Logan Speech
Read My Latest Newsletter
With the announcement that Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to be the new Fed Chair, there's a lot of misinformation and speculation making the rounds regarding the potential impact on mortgage rates. Let's clear it up. Who is Warsh and why do people think he could be good for rates? Frankly, it doesn't matter who Warsh is. Trump was only ever going to nominate a Fed Chair who was amenable to ... READ MORE
Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House