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Big Round Trip in Oil Prices and Bond Yields
Big Round Trip in Oil Prices and Bond Yields
There was no denying the spillover from oil price volatility to the bond market this morning, even if it took quite a lot of the former to move the latter. At its apex, the oil surge was the largest daily move on record at over $26/bbl (just over a 28% jump). This translated to a 10yr yield jump of almost 8bps to start the overnight session. But things were already reversing course quickly by the time European trading began. Then, by the start of U.S. trading, 10yr yields were already back below 4.18% and continued to fall back to unchanged levels at 4.13% by 2pm ET. The reversal almost perfectly traced the reversal in oil prices.
Round Trip in Oil Prices and Bond Yields
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Mar 10 | |||||
| 6:00AM | Feb NFIB Business Optimism Index | Feb | 99.7 | 99.3 | |
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 12.75K | |||
| 10:00AM | Feb Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Feb | -8.4% | ||
| 10:00AM | Feb Existing home sales (ml) | Feb | 3.90M | 3.91M | |
| 1:00PM | 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 58 | |||
| Wednesday, Mar 11 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Mar/06 MBA Purchase Index | Mar/06 | 158.9 | ||
| 7:00AM | Mar/06 MBA Refi Index | Mar/06 | 1637.5 | ||
| 7:00AM | Mar/06 Mortgage Market Index | Mar/06 | 377.5 | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb y/y Headline CPI (%) | Feb | 2.4% | 2.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Feb m/m Headline CPI (%) | Feb | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Feb y/y CORE CPI (%) | Feb | 2.5% | 2.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Feb m/m CORE CPI (%) | Feb | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 10:30AM | Mar/06 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Mar/06 | 3.475M | ||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 39 | |||
| 2:00PM | Feb Federal budget (bl) | Feb | $-67.1B | $-95B | |
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