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Early Strength Thwarted by Data and Resilience in Equities
Early Strength Thwarted by Data and Resilience in Equities
There are several ways to view today's bond market movement and none of them are terribly important. Sharply lower oil prices had a small, friendly impact on bonds early in the day following more hopeful war-related headlines, but context is important. A 3-4 dollar drop in oil merely got 10yr yields back in line with overnight lows. In other words, there's still precious little correlation here. Oil reversed course fairly quickly and bonds got hit harder by strong JOLTS data (job openings and labor turnover survey). Correlation with tech stocks was minimal, but it didn't help that the NASDAQ inched higher from overnight lows throughout the session.
Early Strength Thwarted by Data and Equity Resilience
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Nov 04 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Oct/30 Mortgage Market Index | Oct/30 | 192.6 | 195.0 | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/30 MBA Refi Index | Oct/30 | 517.5 | 516.8 | |
| 7:00AM | Oct/30 MBA Purchase Index | Oct/30 | 131.4 | 134.1 | |
| 8:15AM | Oct ADP jobs (k) | Oct | 86K | 69K | 90K |
| 8:30AM | Sep Trade Gap (bl) | Sep | -105.00B | $-108B | $-105.6B |
| 9:45AM | Oct S&P Global Services PMI | Oct | 56.1 | 57.9 | 58.8 |
| 9:45AM | Oct S&P Global Composite PMI | Oct | 55.9 | 57.6 | 58.4 |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Biz Activity | Oct | 53.8 | 56.5 | |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Services Employment | Oct | 51.4 | 50.1 | |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Services New Orders | Oct | 55.9 | 59.8 | |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM Services Prices | Oct | 73.0 | 74.0 | |
| 10:00AM | Oct ISM N-Mfg PMI | Oct | 54.5 | 54.8 | 54.9 |
| 10:30AM | Oct/30 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Oct/30 | 0.9M | -1.892M | |
| 2:00PM | Oct Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Oct | 15.9M | 16M | |
| Thursday, Nov 05 | |||||
| 5:30AM | Oct Challenger layoffs (k) | Oct | 43.281K | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct/24 Continued Claims (k) | Oct/24 | 1710K | 1701K | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/31 Jobless Claims (k) | Oct/31 | 196K | 194K | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final | Q3 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 10:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months | $3.652 billion | |||
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