Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House

Just a Bit More Selling to End The Week

Just a Bit More Selling to End The Week

Nothing much new happened in the bond market today and that's not great because the status quo has been for rising energy prices to push bond yields higher (and stocks lower). The short end of the curve actually improved, but that says more about end-of-week position squaring than any new development.  All told, it was the least painful day of the week despite ending at the highest yields since Feb 4. Next week brings a Fed announcement with zero chance of a cut, but still perhaps some interesting commentary on how the Fed will sort inflation implications versus the economic impact.

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Just a Bit More Selling to End The Week

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 98.89 -0.04 10YR 4.281% +0.016% 3/13/2026 5:00PM EST
MBS are down more than an eighth on the day and more than a quarter point from most lenders' rate sheet print times. Negative reprices are now likely.  Bond yields and oil prices have both been moving higher since 10am ET   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.41% +0.12% 15YR Fixed 6.01% +0.11% 3/13/2026
March hasn't been a great month for mortgage rates and the past 3 days have been particularly bad. During that time, our daily rate index went from 6.09% on Tuesday to 6.41% today--the highest since September 4th, 2025.  While that's certainly not the fastest jump we've seen, it's the worst 3-day stretch since early April, 2025. Mortgage rates are driven primarily by movement in the bond market. Like several other asset classes, bonds have not been happy about the Ir...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Mar 13
8:30AM Q4 GDP Final Sales (%) Q4 0.4% 1.2% 4.5%
8:30AM Q4 Core PCE Prices QoQ Q4 2.7% 2.7% 2.9%
8:30AM Jan PCE prices (m/m) (%) Jan 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
8:30AM Jan PCE (y/y) (%) Jan 2.8% 2.9% 2.9%
8:30AM Q4 PCE Prices (Q/Q) Q4 2.9% 2.9% 2.8%
8:30AM Jan Durable goods (%) Jan 0% 1.2% -1.4%
8:30AM Jan Core CapEx (%) Jan 0% 0.5% 0.6%
8:30AM Jan Core PCE (y/y) (%) Jan 3.1% 3.1% 3%
8:30AM Jan Core PCE (m/m) (%) Jan 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
8:30AM Q4 GDP (%) Q4 0.7% 1.4% 4.4%
10:00AM Jan JOLTs Job Quits (ml) Jan 3.1M 3.204M
10:00AM Mar Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Mar 3.4% 3.4%
10:00AM Mar U Mich conditions Mar 57.8 56.6
10:00AM Mar Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Mar 3.2% 3.3%
10:00AM Mar Consumer Sentiment (ip) Mar 55.5 55 56.6
10:00AM Jan USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) Jan 6.946M 6.70M 6.542M
Monday, Mar 16
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR
8:30AM Mar NY Fed Manufacturing Mar 3.8 7.10
8:30AM Feb Retail Sales (%) Feb 0%
8:30AM Feb Retail Sales Control Group MoM Feb
9:15AM Feb Industrial Production (%) Feb 0.2% 0.7%
9:20AM NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months (%)
10:00AM Mar NAHB housing market indx Mar 37 36
10:00AM Jan Business Inventories (% ) Jan
Read My Latest Newsletter
February ended with 30yr fixed rates at the lowest level in more than 3 years. There's been a grueling march higher since then with average rates ending the week at 7-month highs. While the first few days of March were open to some debate about the reasons for the rate spike, there's now only one elephant in the room, and it's a war elephant.  Wars have various effects on financial... READ MORE
Chris Munson
SVP and Managing Director US Sales and Operations
The Money House