Increasing Signs of Bond-Specific Panic
Increasing Signs of Bond-Specific Panic
Ever since the initial 2 week ceasefire was announced in the Iran war, the bond market has adhered to trend channels that align with either de-escalation or re-escalation sentiment. Nothing too complicated here: if sentiment is trending in favor of peace, bonds have rallied. If sentiment is deteriorating, bonds have sold off. There was a temporary diversion as traders waited to see if last week's China summit would be a catalyst for a shift. When the summit failed to deliver, yields jumped back in line with the re-escalation trend. Now this morning, they're already challenging the bearish boundary of that trend WITHOUT any new justification from an oil price spike, stock market rout, or any new news on the war. In other words, bonds are telling politicians to get serious about ending the war or face increasingly dire consequences.
Bombarded by Headlines, But Little-Changed
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, May 19 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR | ||||
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 42.25K | 33.0K | ||
| 9:00AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Apr Pending Home Sales (%) | Apr | 1.4% | 1% | 1.5% |
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.580% | 3.615% | ||
| 7:00PM | Fed Paulson Speech | ||||
| 7:30PM | Fed Venable Speech | ||||
| Wednesday, May 20 | |||||
| 7:00AM | May/15 Mortgage Market Index | May/15 | 290.1 | ||
| 7:00AM | May/15 MBA Refi Index | May/15 | 921.1 | ||
| 7:00AM | May/15 MBA Purchase Index | May/15 | 177.7 | ||
| 8:00AM | Fed Paulson Speech | ||||
| 10:15AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | May/15 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | May/15 | -4.306M | ||
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 16 | |||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Minutes | ||||
