Broker/Owner
Collaborative Capital
License:
NMLS# 278724
NMLS# 2385760

Could Have Been Better. Could Have Been Worse

Could Have Been Better. Could Have Been Worse

If the bond market was a Mario Bro, it found a gold star at some point on Wednesday. As Thursday afternoon, the gold star ran out of juice and we're back to regular old Mario. In other words, astonishing resilience/bullishness has been replaced by a sideways-to-slightly-weaker grind. It could be as simple as the desire among traders to consolidate recent gains without getting too carried away. Ongoing selling in tech stocks ostensibly allowed for another bond rally, so the fact that we lost a bit of ground could end up looking like an important clue about resistance. A mid-day spike in oil prices may have added just a bit of upward pressure in yields, but it's more likely correlation>causation as oil has been higher all week. Losses were minimal as of 3pm, leaving most of the week's rally intact. 

Latest Video Analysis

Could Have Been Better or Worse

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0
98.95
-0.14 
10YR TREASURY
5.086
+0.017 
10/15/2026 8:15PM EST
Selling continued after the last alert. Losses are driven by a big surge in oil prices. We're not seeing a compelling reason for that yet other than unconfirmed reports of some pipeline attack. MBS are now down 10 ticks (.31) on the day.  Lenders who priced after 10am are seeing almost that full amount of weakness.  Lenders who priced before 10am are seeing at least an eighth of a point.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
7.37%
+0.04% 
15YR Fixed
7.04%
+0.06% 
10/16/2026
After dropping sharply over the past 5 days, mortgage rates finally reminded us that they're still capable of moving higher. Thankfully, today's bump was modest in the recent context, only adding 0.04% to a 30yr fixed that had fallen 0.27% since October 7th.  Even though today's losses were minimal, they're potentially informative. Much of this week's improvement can be traced to concerns surrounding tech companies, and possible warning signs about a reduction in AI-...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Oct 16
8:30AM Sep Import prices mm (%) Sep 1.1% 0.8% 0.7%
9:15AM Sep Industrial Production (%) Sep 0.7% 0.4% 0%
2:00PM Sep Federal budget (bl) Sep $-27B $-29B $-167B
Monday, Oct 19
12:00AM Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR
10:00AM Oct NAHB housing market indx Oct 31 32
Broker/Owner
Collaborative Capital
License:
NMLS# 278724
NMLS# 2385760