Fed Minutes Push Yields Higher
Fed Minutes Push Yields Higher
As expected, the recent raft of hawkish Fed speakers foreshadowed (whether intentionally or coincidentally) a hawkish message in today's Fed minutes. At issue: "many" meeting participants felt that a December cut would NOT likely be justified as opposed to "several" who disagreed. This was compounded by the fact that BLS rescheduled the early December jobs report for 12/16/25--6 days after the December Fed meeting. In other words, there won't be any employment data that would help the Fed justify a cut next month. Fed Funds futures agreed with a spike in implied yields immediately following the BLS news. Longer-term bonds followed suit after the Fed Minutes.
Slightly stronger overnight, but losing ground since 9:30am NYSE open. MBS unchanged and 10yr up 1.1bps at 4.12
Bouncing back from AM weakness. MBS up 1 tick and 10yr up 0.9bps at 4.118
no reaction to Fed Minutes. MBS unchanged and 10yr down 0.4bps at 4.106
Weakest levels of the day for MBS, down 2 ticks (.06). 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.123
Heading out near weakest levels. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.128
Fed Minutes Push Yields Higher
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Nov 19 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Nov/14 Mortgage Market Index | Nov/14 | 316.9 | 334.2 | |
| 7:00AM | Nov/14 MBA Refi Index | Nov/14 | 1156.8 | 1247.5 | |
| 7:00AM | Nov/14 MBA Purchase Index | Nov/14 | 168.7 | 172.7 | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Trade Gap (on hold, shutdown) (bl) | Aug | $-59.6B | $-61B | $-78.3B |
| 10:30AM | Nov/14 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Nov/14 | -3.426M | -0.6M | 6.413M |
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 16 | |||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Minutes | ||||
| 2:00PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| Thursday, Nov 20 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Sep Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Sep | 50K | 22K | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Participation Rate | Sep | 62.3% | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Unemployment rate mm (%) | Sep | 4.3% | 4.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Average earnings mm (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/25 Jobless Claims (k) | Oct/25 | 232K | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct/25 Continued Claims (k) | Oct/25 | 1957.0K | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov/01 Jobless Claims (k) | Nov/01 | |||
| 8:30AM | Nov/01 Continued Claims (k) | Nov/01 | |||
| 8:30AM | Nov/08 Jobless Claims (k) | Nov/08 | |||
| 8:30AM | Nov/15 Jobless Claims (k) | Nov/15 | |||
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed Business Index | Nov | -3.1 | -12.8 | |
| 8:30AM | Nov/08 Continued Claims (k) | Nov/08 | |||
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed Prices Paid | Nov | 49.20 | ||
| 8:45AM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Sep CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Sep | -0.3% | -0.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Oct CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Oct | |||
| 10:00AM | Oct Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Oct | 1.5% | ||
| 10:00AM | Oct Existing home sales (ml) | Oct | 4.08M | 4.06M | |
| 11:00AM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 19 | |||
| 1:40PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 1:40PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
