Broker/Owner
Collaborative Capital
License:
NMLS# 278724
NMLS# 2385760

Limited Follow-Through After Shockingly Big Miss

Limited Follow-Through After Shockingly Big Miss

If you told the average trader that today's core CPI would come in at 2.6% vs 3.0% year over year, they would have expected a much bigger reaction than we saw today. Ironically, the size of the miss may be one of those reasons. It's so far outside the realm of expected possibilities that traders immediately assumed the presence of legitimate issues with November's data collection. Nonetheless, it was worth a moderate extension of the overnight rally.

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Limited Follow-Through After Shockingly Big Miss

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.63 -0.09 10YR 4.141% +0.020% 12/19/2025 5:10AM EST
Great news for bonds on the inflation front this morning: Core annual inflation came in at 2.6% compared to a 3.0% forecast and 3.0% last time.  It's the lowest reading of the cycle and the first attempt to break below the stagnant sideways/elevated levels that have prevented more aggressive Fed rate cuts. Despite those facts, the bond market is only rallying moderately (but certainly rallying). Traders could be skeptical about the thoroughness of post-shutdown data coll...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.22% -0.05% 15YR Fixed 5.74% -0.02% 12/18/2025
Officially, there were 2 days at the end of November where the average lender's 30yr fixed rates were just a hair lower (0.02% difference).  Otherwise, today's rates would be the lowest since late October. The improvement follows this morning's release of November's Consumer Price Index (CPI). Inflation was so far below expectations that it raised new questions about just how much the government shutdown impacted data collection. The market still treated it as good new...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Dec 19
10:00AM Dec Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Dec 3.2% 3.4%
10:00AM Dec U Mich conditions Dec 50.7 51.1
10:00AM Dec Consumer Sentiment (ip) Dec 53.4 51.0
10:00AM Dec Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Dec 4.1% 4.5%
10:00AM Nov Exist. home sales % chg (%) Nov 1.2%
10:00AM Nov Existing home sales (ml) Nov 4.2M 4.1M
Monday, Dec 22
1:00PM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 69
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Friends don't let friends believe the myth that Fed rate cuts result in lower mortgage rates. If you'd rather not immerse yourself in the "why," here is a solid "what:" This isn't an anomaly. The Fed Funds Rate governs loans that last less than 24 hours whereas a mortgage can last 30 years.  Loans of different durations frequently see their interest rates walk vastly different path... READ MORE
Broker/Owner
Collaborative Capital
License:
NMLS# 278724
NMLS# 2385760