Bonds Faded in the Afternoon Despite Oil Price Recovery
Bonds Faded in the Afternoon Despite Oil Price Recovery
Oil prices and bond yields started the overnight session higher, but both moved to the lows of the day just after 9:30am. From then on, oil went broadly sideways while bonds sold off gradually. If oil had instead moved higher into the afternoon, we might not care about the bond market weakness. But as it stands, we have bond-specific defensiveness in the afternoon replacing the modicum of bond-specific bullishness we noted in the morning commentary. Not the end of the world, but not ideal.
Bonds Fade in Afternoon Despite Oil Price Recovery
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Jun 09 | |||||
| 6:00AM | May NFIB Business Optimism Index | May | 96.0 | 95.9 | |
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 35.75K | |||
| 8:30AM | Apr Trade Gap (bl) | Apr | $-56.4B | $-60.3B | |
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months (%) | $3.288 billion | |||
| 10:00AM | May Exist. home sales % chg (%) | May | 0.2% | ||
| 10:00AM | May Existing home sales (ml) | May | 4.06M | 4.02M | |
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.625% | |||
| 12:00PM | EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (%) | ||||
| 1:00PM | 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 58 | |||
| Wednesday, Jun 10 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Jun/05 Mortgage Market Index | Jun/05 | 252.8 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jun/05 MBA Refi Index | Jun/05 | 736.2 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jun/05 MBA Purchase Index | Jun/05 | 164.8 | ||
| 8:30AM | May m/m Headline CPI (%) | May | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 8:30AM | May m/m CORE CPI (%) | May | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 8:30AM | May y/y CORE CPI (%) | May | 2.9% | 2.8% | |
| 8:30AM | May y/y Headline CPI (%) | May | 4.2% | 3.8% | |
| 10:30AM | Jun/05 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jun/05 | -7.974M | ||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 39 | |||
| 2:00PM | May Federal budget (bl) | May | $-270M | $215B | |
