Data Didn't Hurt, But Bonds Underperformed The Oil Price Recovery
Data Didn't Hurt, But Bonds Underperformed The Oil Price Recovery
Today's headline is somewhat misleading. It points out the fact that oil prices made it back to yesterday's lows whereas bond yields didn't even come close. This is all true, assuming we're looking at front month oil prices. But if we use a longer-term futures contract for oil, the correlation with bonds was actually closer to 1:1. Either way, the bond rally only unwound a fraction of yesterday's losses and that's especially true for MBS (5.0 coupons lost half a point yesterday, but regained less than a quarter point today). Econ data didn't hurt, but it didn't exactly help either. ISM and Job Openings were both very close to consensus.
Bonds Underperformed Oil Price Recovery
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, May 05 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Feb Building Permits (ml) | Feb | 1.538M | 1.386M | |
| 8:30AM | Mar Building Permits (ml) | Mar | 1.363M | 1.538M | |
| 8:30AM | Mar Trade Gap (bl) | Mar | $-60.3B | $-60.9B | $-57.3B |
| 9:45AM | Apr S&P Global Services PMI | Apr | 51.0 | 51.3 | 49.8 |
| 9:45AM | Apr S&P Global Composite PMI | Apr | 51.7 | 52.0 | 50.3 |
| 10:00AM | Feb New Home Sales (ml) | Feb | 0.635M | 0.587M | |
| 10:00AM | Feb New Home Sales (%) (%) | Feb | 8.9% | -17.6% | |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM N-Mfg PMI | Apr | 53.6 | 53.7 | 54.0 |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Services Employment | Apr | 48.0 | 45.2 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Services Prices | Apr | 70.7 | 70.7 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Biz Activity | Apr | 55.9 | 53.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Services New Orders | Apr | 53.5 | 60.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Mar New Home Sales (%) (%) | Mar | 7.4% | -17.6% | |
| 10:00AM | Mar JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Mar | 3.171M | 2.974M | |
| 10:00AM | Mar USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Mar | 6.866M | 6.84M | 6.882M |
| 10:00AM | May IBD economic optimism | May | 42.6 | 42 | 42.8 |
| 10:00AM | Mar New Home Sales (ml) | Mar | 0.682M | 0.65M | 0.587M |
| 10:00AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 10:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $7.585 billion | |||
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.590% | |||
| 12:30PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| Wednesday, May 06 | |||||
| 7:00AM | May/01 MBA Purchase Index | May/01 | 177.7 | ||
| 7:00AM | May/01 Mortgage Market Index | May/01 | 298.5 | ||
| 7:00AM | May/01 MBA Refi Index | May/01 | 977.9 | ||
| 8:15AM | Apr ADP jobs (k) | Apr | 99K | 62K | |
| 9:30AM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | May/01 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | May/01 | -2.8M | -6.233M | |
| 1:00PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 1:30PM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
