Brendon Garcia
Broker/Owner
Collaborative Capital
P: (805) 253-2053
https://brendongarcia.com/
Westlake Village, California
License:
NMLS# 278724
NMLS# 2385760

Back on The Pain Wagon (Which Runs on Oil)

Thursday, August 20, 2026

Back on The Pain Wagon (Which Runs on Oil)

The correlation between bonds and fuel prices was already creeping back into the picture yesterday. After the Treasury buyback announcement got all of the morning's attention, fuel prices guided the ebbs and flows in the second half of the day. Now today, we're fully back to regularly scheduled programming and there are only so many shows.

Latest Video Analysis

AM Rally Ultimately Sticks With Help From Oil

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5
99.32
-0.25 
10YR TREASURY
4.696
+0.050 
8/20/2026 2:00PM EST
MBS Morning: Back on The Pain Wagon (Which Runs on Oil)
The correlation between bonds and fuel prices was already creeping back into the picture yesterday. After the Treasury buyback announcement got all of the morning's attention, fuel prices guided the ebbs and flows in the second half of the day. Now today, we're fully back to regularly scheduled programming and there are only so many shows.   READ MORE
Alert:
MBS Down More Than an Eighth From Highs
MBS Morning:
Bonds Rally After Treasury Buyback Announcement (NOT QE)
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.76%
+0.04% 
15YR Fixed
6.30%
+0.03% 
8/20/2026
Why Mortgage Rates Didn't Fall as Much as 30yr Bonds Today
Mortgage rates dropped on Wednesday due to a combination of lower oil prices and the announcement of changes to Treasury's bond buyback program. The oil price angle is easy to understand. Throughout the war, higher fuel prices have caused volatility in inflation expectations and inflation is a critical consideration for bonds/rates.  The Treasury buyback news is more complex and highly oversimplified by the average piece of media coverage. Here are the details that ...   READ MORE
Last Week This Week Next Week
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Aug 20
8:30AM Aug/15 Jobless Claims (k) Aug/15 206K 210K 209K
8:30AM Aug Philly Fed Prices Paid Aug 40.90 53.90
8:30AM Aug/08 Continued Claims (k) Aug/08 1799K 1790K 1777K
8:30AM Aug Philly Fed Business Index Aug 47.4 25 41.4
10:00AM Jul CB Leading Index MoM (%) Jul 0.2% 0.1% -0.2%
1:00PM 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 8
Friday, Aug 21
9:45AM Aug S&P Global Services PMI Aug 54 54.6
9:45AM Aug S&P Global Manuf. PMI Aug 53.9 53.9
9:45AM Aug S&P Global Composite PMI Aug 54.5
Brendon Garcia
Broker/Owner
Collaborative Capital
P: (805) 253-2053
https://brendongarcia.com/
Westlake Village, California
License:
NMLS# 278724
NMLS# 2385760
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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.