Stronger Start as Markets Hope For De-Escalation
Stronger Start as Markets Hope For De-Escalation
With no massive escalation in Iran over the weekend, oil prices trickled only modestly higher during Asian trading hours and began to recover during European hours. Early domestic trading kept the friendly trend intact with some help from Trump comments that suggested a limited timeline for the war. That said, the rally was more of a linear trend this morning and less of a volatile reaction to any individual newswire. Econ data is in the back seat to geopolitical events. The same will generally be true for Wednesday's Fed announcement, although volatility is at least possible thanks to the dot plot and press conference (rate cut = 0% chance).
Moderately stronger overnight with additional gains in early domestic trading. MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 4.6bps at 4.232
MBS still up a quarter point and 10yr down 4.1bps at 4.237
Just a Bit More Selling to End The Week
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Mar 16 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | Mar NY Fed Manufacturing | Mar | -0.20 | 3.2 | 7.10 |
| 9:15AM | Feb Industrial Production (%) | Feb | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months (%) | ||||
| 10:00AM | Mar NAHB housing market indx | Mar | 38 | 37 | 36 |
| 10:00AM | Jan Business Inventories (% ) | Jan | |||
| Tuesday, Mar 17 | |||||
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 15.5K | |||
| 8:30AM | Feb Housing starts number mm (ml) | Feb | |||
| 10:00AM | Feb Pending Home Sales (%) | Feb | -0.5% | -0.8% | |
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.635% | |||
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 13 | |||
