Bonds Selling But Not Panicking After Super Strong Jobs Numbers
Bonds Selling But Not Panicking After Super Strong Jobs Numbers
Nearly an hour after this morning's surprisingly strong jobs report, 10yr yields are only 4.4bps higher at 4.19%. On a normal day, 4.4bps might be a fairly big sell-off, but it's a huge victory on a day where payrolls came in at 130k vs 70k forecast, and where the unemployment rate fell to 4.3 vs 4.4 expectations. Moreover, labor force participation moved 0.1 higher, which means the unemployment downtick is an even stronger sign (all else equal, unemployment will rise 0.1 if participation rises 0.1). The only knock on the data is that the healthcare sector did all the heavy lifting, and it was well outside the recent range of gains.
Quick selling after jobs report, but not as bad as it might have been. 10yr up 4.3bps at 4.185 and MBS down 1 tick (.03)
Impressive resilience continues. MBS unchanged and 10yr up only 2.7bps at 4.171
Even more impressive. MBS up 3 ticks and 10yr up only half a bp at 4.15
Best Levels in Weeks Ahead of High Stakes Jobs Report
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Feb 11 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Feb/06 MBA Refi Index | Feb/06 | 1284.6 | 1269.7 | |
| 7:00AM | Feb/06 MBA Purchase Index | Feb/06 | 161.5 | 165.4 | |
| 7:00AM | Feb/06 Mortgage Market Index | Feb/06 | 329.9 | 330.8 | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Unemployment rate mm (%) | Jan | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| 8:30AM | Jan Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Jan | 130K | 70K | 50K |
| 10:15AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | Feb/06 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Feb/06 | 8.53M | 0.8M | -3.455M |
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 42 | |||
| 2:00PM | Jan Federal budget (bl) | Jan | $-86.5B | $-145B | |
| 7:00PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
| Thursday, Feb 12 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Feb/07 Jobless Claims (k) | Feb/07 | 222K | 231K | |
| 8:30AM | Jan/31 Continued Claims (k) | Jan/31 | 1850K | 1844K | |
| 10:00AM | Jan Existing home sales (ml) | Jan | 4.15M | 4.35M | |
| 10:00AM | Jan Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Jan | 5.1% | ||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.825% | |||
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 25 | |||
| 7:05PM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||