Range-Bound Cruise Control
Range-Bound Cruise Control
2025 is effectively over when it comes to meaningful shifts in the bond market. The coming days will be so heavily-affected by light volume/liquidity that any apparently significant shifts would be taken with a grain of salt anyway. Even as we look back over the past 4 months, we see a persistence of the very narrow 4.00-4.20 range in 10yr yields. The past 3 weeks have been especially narrow. While the recent micro range in 10s is on the high side of the broader range, this has more to do with shifts in the yield curve. For instance, 2yr yields are hugging the lower end of their 4-month range. MBS and mortgage rates are somewhere in between, which is why they've been outperforming 10yr yields relative to the highs/lows of their respective ranges.
modestly weaker overnight and holding sideways so far. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2bps at 4.16
MBS still down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.8bps at 4.168
Bond Market in Holiday Mode
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Dec 22 | |||||
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months (%) | $6.801 million | |||
| 1:00PM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 69 | |||
| Tuesday, Dec 23 | |||||
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 16.25K | |||
| 8:30AM | Q3 Corporate profits (% ) | Q3 | 0.2% | ||
| 8:30AM | Q3 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q3 | 2.9% | 2.6% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Durable goods (%) | Oct | -1.5% | 0.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Core CapEx (%) | Oct | 0.9% | ||
| 8:30AM | Q3 GDP (%) | Q3 | 3.2% | 3.8% | |
| 9:15AM | Oct Industrial Production (%) | Oct | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Dec CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Dec | 92 | 88.7 | |
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
