Surprisingly Light Volatility
Surprisingly Light Volatility
Bonds digested several big ticket economic reports as well as a host of war-related headlines that probably would have caused a much bigger reaction a few weeks ago. But the net effect was an almost perfectly flat day by the 3pm CME close. If anything, the data caused some weakness and we can say bonds would have rallied more noticeably otherwise. The weak response is no surprise considering all 3 reports were stronger than expected. This also serves as a reminder that Friday's jobs report is still a relevant market mover despite a general focus on the war and energy prices.
slightly stronger overnight with a bit of selling after ADP. MBS still up an eighth and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.301
Giving up gains after Retail Sales. MBS unchanged and 10yr up half a bp at 4.317
Recovering some ground now. No particular reason. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.301
MBS up about an eighth and 10yr roughly unchanged at 4.313
MBS up only 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.6bps at 4.33
Surprisingly Light Volatility
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Apr 01 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Mar/27 MBA Purchase Index | Mar/27 | 159.4 | 163.6 | |
| 7:00AM | Mar/27 MBA Refi Index | Mar/27 | 946.4 | 1145.0 | |
| 7:00AM | Mar/27 Mortgage Market Index | Mar/27 | 278.3 | 310.7 | |
| 8:15AM | Mar ADP jobs (k) | Mar | 62K | 40K | 63K |
| 8:30AM | Feb Retail Sales (%) | Feb | 0.6% | 0.5% | -0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Feb Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Feb | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 9:05AM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| 9:13AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 9:45AM | Mar S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Mar | 52.3 | 52.4 | 51.6 |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Manufacturing Employment | Mar | 48.7 | 48.8 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb Construction spending (%) | Feb | |||
| 10:00AM | Jan Business Inventories (% ) | Jan | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Mar | 78.3 | 73 | 70.5 |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI | Mar | 52.7 | 52.5 | 52.4 |
| 10:30AM | Mar/27 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Mar/27 | 5.451M | 0.8M | 6.926M |
| 9:00PM | US President Trump Speech (%) | ||||
| Thursday, Apr 02 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Mar Challenger layoffs (k) | Mar | 48.307K | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb Trade Gap (bl) | Feb | $-59.2B | $-54.5B | |
| 8:30AM | Mar/28 Jobless Claims (k) | Mar/28 | 212K | 210K | |
| 8:30AM | Mar/21 Continued Claims (k) | Mar/21 | 1840K | 1819K | |
| 11:00AM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
