Broker/Owner
Collaborative Capital
License:
NMLS# 278724
NMLS# 2385760

Very Strong Showing For Bonds Considering The Headwinds

Very Strong Showing For Bonds Considering The Headwinds

There were two major headwinds in play for the bond market today. Most obviously, the jobs report was very strong--something that would normally push rates logically and obviously higher. One can only run through a list of potential explanations to fit that paradoxical result (unemployment rate wasn't as far from forecasts, election impact still being weighed, tech stocks didn't bounce big, stale data if mid-October marked a shift in economic momentum) but mind you, no one would have pointed to these things as reasons for bonds to completely defy the jobs report if they had to guess at the impact ahead of time. The second headwind was the absence of additional selling in tech stocks. This one could go both ways. On on hand, the NASDAQ is higher than it was yesterday afternoon. On the other hand (and to reiterate a bullet point above) it didn't stage any sort of impressive recovery. The net effect for bonds was modest weakness although things would have been weaker were it not for mid-day news regarding Microsoft winding down a deal to rent AI cloud compute from Oracle.

Latest Video Analysis

Very Strong Showing Considering Headwinds

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0
100.35
+0.00 
10YR TREASURY
4.842
+0.006 
11/5/2026 7:30PM EST
This update is only relevant for clients who were already planning on locking today and who have already seen a positive reprice this afternoon. It's entirely possible that zero lenders will reprice for the worse based on current trading levels. This is just a heads-up that lenders who already repriced for the better are unlikely to improve and may stand a very small chance to worsen pricing modestly. 6.0 MBS are down 5 ticks (.16) from afternoon highs. Lenders who reprice...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
7.17%
+0.00% 
15YR Fixed
6.83%
+0.03% 
11/6/2026
Today was an odd one for mortgage rates . Anyone who's been following the rate market for very long will tell you that the monthly jobs report is one of the most reliable source of volatility for rates. In general, when job growth is much stronger than expected, rates rise and vice versa. But in today's case, rates managed to hold perfectly flat despite the jobs report absolutely crushing expectations. Understand that no one who is offering a reason for this would have pre...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Nov 06
8:30AM Oct Participation Rate Oct 61.9% 61.8%
8:30AM Oct Average earnings mm (%) Oct 0.4% 0.3% 0.1%
8:30AM Oct Unemployment rate mm (%) Oct 4.1% 4.2% 4.2%
8:30AM Oct Non Farm Payrolls (k) Oct 165K 65K 29K
10:00AM Nov Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Nov 3.4% 3.5%
10:00AM Nov U Mich conditions Nov 51.0 48 46.7
10:00AM Nov Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Nov 4.3% 4.7%
10:00AM Nov Consumer Sentiment (ip) Nov 51.0 48 48.0
3:00PM Sep Consumer credit (bl) Sep $27.84B $12B $8.19B
Monday, Nov 09
10:00AM Oct CB Employment Trends Index Oct 107.56
10:20AM NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months $3.653 billion
11:00AM Oct Consumer Inflation Expectations Oct 3.9%
Broker/Owner
Collaborative Capital
License:
NMLS# 278724
NMLS# 2385760