Another Decent Start, But Will it Last?
Another Decent Start, But Will it Last?
For the second day in a row , bonds are starting out in modestly stronger territory, but let's hope we don't repeat yesterday's performance. That left yields even higher at the close than they were on Friday afternoon. Today's overnight gains leave yields in similar territory to yesterday morning. One redeeming technical development is that yields were willing to move below yesterday's pivot point point at 4.543. This doesn't necessarily mean anything, but it's better than a sharp stick in the eye. With limited econ data, we wait for any relevant war-related developments and, secondarily, concessionary or reactive tradeflows surrounding Treasury auctions.
Bonds Fade in Afternoon Despite Oil Price Recovery
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Jun 09 | |||||
| 6:00AM | May NFIB Business Optimism Index | May | 95.3 | 96.0 | 95.9 |
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 29K | 35.75K | ||
| 8:30AM | Apr Trade Gap (bl) | Apr | $-55.9B | $-56.1B | $-60.3B |
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months (%) | $3.288 billion | |||
| 10:00AM | May Exist. home sales % chg (%) | May | 3.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10:00AM | May Existing home sales (ml) | May | 4.17M | 4.07M | 4.02M |
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.600% | 3.625% | ||
| 12:00PM | EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (%) | ||||
| 1:00PM | 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 58 | |||
| Wednesday, Jun 10 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Jun/05 Mortgage Market Index | Jun/05 | 252.8 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jun/05 MBA Refi Index | Jun/05 | 736.2 | ||
| 7:00AM | Jun/05 MBA Purchase Index | Jun/05 | 164.8 | ||
| 8:30AM | May y/y Headline CPI (%) | May | 4.2% | 3.8% | |
| 8:30AM | May m/m Headline CPI (%) | May | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 8:30AM | May y/y CORE CPI (%) | May | 2.9% | 2.8% | |
| 8:30AM | May m/m CORE CPI (%) | May | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 10:30AM | Jun/05 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jun/05 | -5.1M | -7.974M | |
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 39 | |||
| 2:00PM | May Federal budget (bl) | May | $-275M | $215B | |