Big Early AM Rally Gets Bonds Back in The Green
Big Early AM Rally Gets Bonds Back in The Green
Up until roughly 7am ET, it was a rough night for the bond market. 10yr yields had been selling off steadily throughout, hitting 4.443% by 6:45am. Then at 7:04am, newswires indicated "talks" between the US and Iran, and a 5 day ceasefire of sorts. Yields and oil plunged instantly. Stocks rallied. The 10yr dipped as low as 4.308% before bouncing. The bounce coincided with reports that there were no talks, but yet other newswires suggested those talks happened through intermediaries and not directly with Iran. Either way, the 5 day moratorium on US strikes in Iran is worth something to the market.
Weaker overnight then sharply stronger just after 7am on "war might end" headlines. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 1.8bps at 4.366 after being as high as 4.442 just before 7am.
Additional gains on additional Iran negotiation headlines. MBS up nearly 3/8ths and 10yr down 3.8bps at 4.345
Well off highs. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) on the day and 10yr down only 1.8bps at 4.365
Nice recovery. MBS up 3/8ths and 10yr down 5.5bps at 4.328
Snowball Selling
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Mar 23 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Jan Construction spending (%) | Jan | -0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Tuesday, Mar 24 | |||||
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 9K | |||
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $8.071 billion | |||
| 9:45AM | Mar S&P Global Composite PMI | Mar | 51.9 | ||
| 9:45AM | Mar S&P Global Services PMI | Mar | 51.7 | 51.7 | |
| 9:45AM | Mar S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Mar | 51 | 51.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb New Home Sales (%) (%) | Feb | |||
| 10:00AM | Feb New Home Sales (ml) | Feb | 0.745M | ||
| 1:00PM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 69 | |||
| 6:30PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
