Broker/Owner
Collaborative Capital
License:
NMLS# 278724
NMLS# 2385760

Counting Down to Warsh

Counting Down to Warsh

While it may end up being a complete non-event, the bond market is counting the hours until Friday's Warsh appearance at Jackson Hole. There's nothing else on the calendar this week with any serious potential to upset the apple cart (and again, it's debatable that Warsh's speech is much more of a risk than random pre-weekend position squaring). But this is the bond market on Jackson Hole week, so the Fed Chair's speech is always a wild card simply because a few past examples have been relevant. In the meantime, bonds will take cues from fuel prices, corporate issuance, and any oversized tradeflows.

Latest Video Analysis

Pros and Cons in Today's Weakness

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5
99.49
-0.05 
10YR TREASURY
4.662
+0.013 
8/27/2026 1:25PM EST
Treasuries have been under some increased pressure in the last 15 minutes and yields are now at the highs of the day. MBS have been outperforming but have also lost ground fairly steadily since just before 11am.  5.5 UMBS are now down an eighth of a point versus AM highs. Most lenders released rates when prices were near the AM lows and are thus not seeing enough weakness to suggest reprices. The risk is that the selling continues (based on Treasuries' suggestion).&nb...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.75%
+0.00% 
15YR Fixed
6.32%
+0.00% 
8/27/2026
Intraday volatility in the bond market can make it tricky to track day over day changes in mortgage rates . Lenders publish the day's first rates based on bond market prices around 9:30-10:00am ET, but things can change if bonds move enough.  Yesterday, bonds improved enough in the afternoon for many lenders to offer lower rates. If we compare today's rates to yesterday afternoon's better examples, we're slightly worse off now. But if we compare to yesterday morning, ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Aug 27
8:30AM Aug/22 Jobless Claims (k) Aug/22 203K 208K 206K
8:30AM Aug/15 Continued Claims (k) Aug/15 1778K 1790K 1799K
1:00PM 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) 44
8:00PM Jackson Hole Symposium
Friday, Aug 28
9:45AM Aug Chicago PMI Aug 57 57.6
10:00AM Aug Consumer Sentiment (ip) Aug 51.0 55.2
10:00AM Aug Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Aug 4.3% 4.2%
10:00AM Aug U Mich conditions Aug 51.8 54.8
10:00AM Aug Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Aug 3.3% 3.3%
10:00AM Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision (k) -911K
10:00AM Fed Chair Warsh Speech
8:00PM Jackson Hole Symposium
Broker/Owner
Collaborative Capital
License:
NMLS# 278724
NMLS# 2385760