Broker/Owner
Collaborative Capital
License:
NMLS# 278724
NMLS# 2385760

Bonds Selling But Not Panicking After Super Strong Jobs Numbers

Bonds Selling But Not Panicking After Super Strong Jobs Numbers

Nearly an hour after this morning's surprisingly strong jobs report, 10yr yields are only 4.4bps higher at 4.19%. On a normal day, 4.4bps might be a fairly big sell-off, but it's a huge victory on a day where payrolls came in at 130k vs 70k forecast, and where the unemployment rate fell to 4.3 vs 4.4 expectations. Moreover, labor force participation moved 0.1 higher, which means the unemployment downtick is an even stronger sign (all else equal, unemployment will rise 0.1 if participation rises 0.1). The only knock on the data is that the healthcare sector did all the heavy lifting, and it was well outside the recent range of gains. 

Market Movement Recap
09:48 AM

Quick selling after jobs report, but not as bad as it might have been.  10yr up 4.3bps at 4.185 and MBS down 1 tick (.03) 

11:14 AM

Impressive resilience continues. MBS unchanged and 10yr up only 2.7bps at 4.171

12:11 PM

Even more impressive. MBS up 3 ticks and 10yr up only half a bp at 4.15

Latest Video Analysis

Best Levels in Weeks Ahead of High Stakes Jobs Report

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 100.06 +0.09 10YR 4.151% +0.007% 2/11/2026 12:51PM EST
Nearly an hour after this morning's surprisingly strong jobs report, 10yr yields are only 4.4bps higher at 4.19%. On a normal day, 4.4bps might be a fairly big sell-off, but it's a huge victory on a day where payrolls came in at 130k vs 70k forecast, and where the unemployment rate fell to 4.3 vs 4.4 expectations. Moreover, labor force participation moved 0.1 higher, which means the unemployment downtick is an even stronger sign (all else equal, unemployment will rise 0.1 if ...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.14% +0.03% 15YR Fixed 5.71% +0.01% 2/11/2026
Mortgage rates fell on Tuesday following a downbeat Retail Sales report. At 0.05%, it was the largest single-day drop since the uncommonly big 0.15% drop on January 9th. This also takes the average 30yr fixed rate to 6.11%, easily below its recently narrow range of 6.15-6.20. The bonds that drive mortgage rates are always tuned in to various economic reports for movement cues. Weaker data = lower rates, all else equal. Retail Sales is hit and miss when it comes to causing ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Feb 11
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 30YR
7:00AM Feb/06 MBA Refi Index Feb/06 1284.6 1269.7
7:00AM Feb/06 MBA Purchase Index Feb/06 161.5 165.4
7:00AM Feb/06 Mortgage Market Index Feb/06 329.9 330.8
8:30AM Jan Unemployment rate mm (%) Jan 4.3% 4.4% 4.4%
8:30AM Jan Non Farm Payrolls (k) Jan 130K 70K 50K
10:15AM Fed Bowman Speech
10:30AM Feb/06 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Feb/06 8.53M 0.8M -3.455M
1:00PM 10-yr Note Auction (bl) 42
2:00PM Jan Federal budget (bl) Jan $-86.5B $-145B
7:00PM Fed Logan Speech
Thursday, Feb 12
8:30AM Feb/07 Jobless Claims (k) Feb/07 222K 231K
8:30AM Jan/31 Continued Claims (k) Jan/31 1850K 1844K
10:00AM Jan Existing home sales (ml) Jan 4.15M 4.35M
10:00AM Jan Exist. home sales % chg (%) Jan 5.1%
1:00PM 30-Year Bond Auction 4.825%
1:00PM 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 25
7:05PM Fed Miran Speech
Read My Latest Newsletter
With the announcement that Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to be the new Fed Chair, there's a lot of misinformation and speculation making the rounds regarding the potential impact on mortgage rates. Let's clear it up. Who is Warsh and why do people think he could be good for rates? Frankly, it doesn't matter who Warsh is. Trump was only ever going to nominate a Fed Chair who was amenable to ... READ MORE
Broker/Owner
Collaborative Capital
License:
NMLS# 278724
NMLS# 2385760