Broker/Owner
Collaborative Capital
License:
NMLS# 278724
NMLS# 2385760

A Bit of Actual Data-Driven Selling Thanks to Jobless Claims

A Bit of Actual Data-Driven Selling Thanks to Jobless Claims

Human traders may be extremely underrepresented on today's half-day trading session, but the robots/algos know what to do with a sub-200k Jobless Claims print.  Robots are also not smart enough to know that the sub-200k print is likely distorted by the uncommon occurrence of Christmas falling on a Thursday (last time was 2014). This means seasonal adjustment factors are attuned to more common scenarios where x-mas falls on a Monday.  The same issue cropped up after Thanksgiving and claims bounced back in line with the trend the following week.  Nonetheless, there's no other input for rates to trade this morning, so we're losing ground.

Market Movement Recap
08:34 AM

losing ground after claims data.  MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2.1bps at 4.144

Latest Video Analysis

Modest Recovery From Morning Weakness

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.82 -0.09 10YR 4.144% +0.021% 12/31/2025 9:57AM EST
Human traders may be extremely underrepresented on today's half-day trading session, but the robots/algos know what to do with a sub-200k Jobless Claims print.  Robots are also not smart enough to know that the sub-200k print is likely distorted by the uncommon occurrence of Christmas falling on a Thursday (last time was 2014). This means seasonal adjustment factors are attuned to more common scenarios where x-mas falls on a Monday.  The same issue cropped up after ...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.20% +0.01% 15YR Fixed 5.75% +0.01% 12/30/2025
Mortgage rates continue operating in an excruciatingly narrow range near their lowest levels of the past few years. Yesterday was the 6th best day of 2025. Today is tied for 7th place after rates moved 0.01% higher on average. While the underlying bond market is fully open today, it's a slow time of year in terms of volume and volatility. Bigger movement becomes more likely by the end of next week thanks to the return of important economic reports and stronger trader parti...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Dec 31
8:30AM Dec/27 Jobless Claims (k) Dec/27 199K 220K 214K
8:30AM Dec/20 Continued Claims (k) Dec/20 1,866K 1923K
10:30AM Dec/26 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Dec/26 -2M 0.405M
2:00PM New Year's Eve
Thursday, Jan 01
12:00AM New Years Day
Read My Latest Newsletter
The two most important economic reports of the month were released this week. Both showed promising results for rates, and although rates improved, the reaction was smaller than expected . First up was November's jobs report, which came out on Tuesday morning. It showed the highest unemployment rate since 2021 at 4.6%--well above the 4.4% forecast. Under normal circumstances, this woul... READ MORE
Broker/Owner
Collaborative Capital
License:
NMLS# 278724
NMLS# 2385760