Roughly Unchanged After Moderate Headline-Driven Volatility
Roughly Unchanged After Moderate Headline-Driven Volatility
As has been the recent custom, there were dueling headlines concerning the Iran war today with opposing claims regarding the status of the Israel/Lebanon ceasefire. If that sounds like kind of a stretch when it comes to bond market significance, bond traders agreed. That said, it was still traded to some extent. This resulted in mid-day volatility that took bonds from slightly weaker to slightly stronger territory, and then back to being roughly unchanged. Econ data was a relative non-event in the morning, but Friday's data has a slightly better chance of garnering a response.
Very flat overnight. Slightly weaker after data. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up half a bp at 4.30
weakest levels. MBS down 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr up 1.4bps at 4.311
10s now down 1bp at 4.285. MBS are within 1 tick (.03) of unchanged.
Best levels of the day for 10s, down 3.2bps at 4.264. MBS unchanged (also near opening highs).
Off the best levels, but not with sustained selling. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.288
Roughly Unchanged After Moderate Headline-Driven Volatility
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Apr 09 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Apr/04 Jobless Claims (k) | Apr/04 | 219K | 210K | 202K |
| 8:30AM | Mar/28 Continued Claims (k) | Mar/28 | 1794K | 1840K | 1841K |
| 8:30AM | Feb PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Feb | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Q4 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q4 | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| 8:30AM | Feb Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Feb | 3% | 3% | 3.1% |
| 8:30AM | Feb Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Feb | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q4 | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.9% |
| 8:30AM | Feb PCE (y/y) (%) | Feb | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 4.5% |
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP (%) | Q4 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 4.4% |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Corporate profits (% ) | Q4 | 5.7% | 4.7% | |
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 22 | |||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.876% | 4.871% | ||
| Friday, Apr 10 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | Mar m/m Headline CPI (%) | Mar | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Mar m/m CORE CPI (%) | Mar | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Mar y/y CORE CPI (%) | Mar | 2.7% | 2.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Mar y/y Headline CPI (%) | Mar | 3.3% | 2.4% | |
| 10:00AM | Feb Factory orders mm (%) | Feb | -0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Apr Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Apr | 52 | 53.3 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr U Mich conditions | Apr | 55.8 | ||
| 10:00AM | Apr Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Apr | 3.2% | ||
| 10:00AM | Apr Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Apr | 3.8% | ||
| 2:00PM | Mar Federal budget (bl) | Mar | $-156.75B | $-308B | |
