Broker/Owner
Collaborative Capital
License:
NMLS# 278724
NMLS# 2385760

Deal Signed. Warsh Digested. Bonds Stabilizing

Deal Signed. Warsh Digested. Bonds Stabilizing

Trump officially signed the Iran MOU last night , which helped oil prices and bond yields move a bit lower. Overseas markets also did a decent job digesting the post-Warsh trade, quarantining most of the damage to the shortest end of the yield curve and buying the longer end (i.e. 10yr rallied back almost completely while 2yr barely rallied). The net effect is a 10yr yield that is back on the doorstep of the 4.42% technical floor (currently 4.435%). MBS have a shorter implied duration than 10 years and only a bit better than halfway back to yesterday's pre-Fed levels. As a reminder, markets are closed Friday. There is no big ticket econ today, so traders will be left to focus on technicals, pre-weekend positioning, and any headlines of consequence.

Latest Video Analysis

Bonds Tell Warsh What They Think About His Changes

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0
98.23
+0.23 
10YR TREASURY
4.444
-0.052 
6/18/2026 8:45AM EST
Trump officially signed the Iran MOU last night , which helped oil prices and bond yields move a bit lower. Overseas markets also did a decent job digesting the post-Warsh trade, quarantining most of the damage to the shortest end of the yield curve and buying the longer end (i.e. 10yr rallied back almost completely while 2yr barely rallied). The net effect is a 10yr yield that is back on the doorstep of the 4.42% technical floor (currently 4.435%). MBS have a shorter implied...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.62%
+0.08% 
15YR Fixed
6.16%
+0.05% 
6/17/2026
Mortgage rates quickly erased a week of progress this afternoon following the Fed announcement and press conference. Fed announcement day historically has several components: the announcement itself, the summary of economic projections (SEP), and the press conference.  Within the SEP, there is the dot plot showing each Fed member's assumptions about where the Fed Funds Rate will be in the future if the economy continues on the expected course. "The dots" only come out...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Jun 18
12:00AM Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR
8:30AM Jun/06 Continued Claims (k) Jun/06 1810K 1800K 1795K
8:30AM Jun Philly Fed Business Index Jun 10.3 10 -0.4
8:30AM Jun/13 Jobless Claims (k) Jun/13 226K 225K 229K
8:30AM Jun Philly Fed Prices Paid Jun 53.20 47.90
10:00AM May CB Leading Index MoM (%) May 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 24
Friday, Jun 19
12:00AM Juneteenth
Broker/Owner
Collaborative Capital
License:
NMLS# 278724
NMLS# 2385760