Stronger Start on Yet Another Peace Deal Headline
Stronger Start on Yet Another Peace Deal Headline
It seems that we've seen slight variations on the same peace deal news for the past several days. That's probably because there is an actual peace deal that's probably near the actual finish line and that's probably why the market is actually willing to trade it. This morning's headlines were as simple as any recent example: Iran's state TV obtained a draft of the peace framework with the key inclusion being a commitment to restoring commercial traffic through Hormuz within one month. Bond yields dropped about 2bps on the news and MBS rallied about an eighth of a point--fairly tame, but clearly connected.
Good Reminder That Markets Decide What Matters
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, May 27 | |||||
| 4:00AM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
| 7:00AM | May/22 Mortgage Market Index | May/22 | 259.4 | 283.5 | |
| 7:00AM | May/22 MBA Refi Index | May/22 | 753.7 | 920.2 | |
| 7:00AM | May/22 MBA Purchase Index | May/22 | 169.7 | 170.4 | |
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 35.75K | 42.25K | ||
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $6.576 billion | |||
| 11:30AM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 28 | |||
| 11:30AM | 2-Year FRN Auction (%) | 0.103% | |||
| 1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 3:55PM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| 8:00PM | Fed Jefferson Speech | ||||
| Thursday, May 28 | |||||
| 8:10AM | Apr Building Permits (ml) | Apr | 1.442M | 1.363M | |
| 8:30AM | May/16 Continued Claims (k) | May/16 | 1780K | 1782K | |
| 8:30AM | May/23 Jobless Claims (k) | May/23 | 211K | 209K | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 Core PCE Prices QoQ | Q1 | 4.3% | 2.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP (%) | Q1 | 2.0% | 0.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 Corporate profits (% ) | Q1 | 5.7% | ||
| 8:30AM | Apr PCE prices (m/m) (%) | Apr | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q1 | 1.6% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Apr PCE (y/y) (%) | Apr | 3.8% | 3.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 PCE Prices (Q/Q) | Q1 | 4.5% | 2.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Apr Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Apr | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Apr Core CapEx (%) | Apr | 0.4% | 3.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Apr Durable goods (%) | Apr | 3.5% | 0.8% | |
| 8:30AM | Apr Core PCE (y/y) (%) | Apr | 3.3% | 3.2% | |
| 8:55AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Apr New Home Sales (ml) | Apr | 0.67M | 0.682M | |
| 10:00AM | Apr New Home Sales (%) (%) | Apr | 7.4% | ||
| 12:00PM | May/22 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | May/22 | -7.864M | ||
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
