Mixed Reaction to Mixed Jobs Data
Mixed Reaction to Mixed Jobs Data
It's shaping up to be a "no whammies" sort of morning for the bond market. There's no denying that the jobs report was a highly tradeable event. The 30 minutes of volume following the release was by far the highest since the October 29th Fed announcement. But that volume has been fairly well balanced between buyers and sellers. Credit the uptick to 4.4% in the unemployment rate for offsetting the job count coming in at 119k vs 50k f'cast. The downward revision to August also isn't hurting (-4k from +22k). Bonds are managing to hold at just slightly stronger levels so far.
MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.7bps at 4.121
Best levels of the day with MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 3.5bps at 4.103
Fed Minutes Push Yields Higher
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Nov 20 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Sep/20 Continued Claims (k) | Sep/20 | 1921K | 1930K | 1926K |
| 8:30AM | Sep/27 Jobless Claims (k) | Sep/27 | 224K | 223K | 218K |
| 8:30AM | Sep Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Sep | 119K | 50K | 22K |
| 8:30AM | Sep Participation Rate | Sep | 62.4% | 62.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Sep Unemployment rate mm (%) | Sep | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| 8:30AM | Sep Average earnings mm (%) | Sep | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Oct/04 Jobless Claims (k) | Oct/04 | 235K | 227K | 224K |
| 8:30AM | Sep/27 Continued Claims (k) | Sep/27 | 1929K | 1930K | 1921K |
| 8:30AM | Oct/04 Continued Claims (k) | Oct/04 | 1928K | 1929K | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/11 Jobless Claims (k) | Oct/11 | 220K | 235K | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/25 Jobless Claims (k) | Oct/25 | 220K | 232K | |
| 8:30AM | Oct/25 Continued Claims (k) | Oct/25 | 1964K | 1957K | |
| 8:30AM | Nov/01 Jobless Claims (k) | Nov/01 | 229K | 220K | |
| 8:30AM | Nov/01 Continued Claims (k) | Nov/01 | 1946K | 1964K | |
| 8:30AM | Nov/08 Jobless Claims (k) | Nov/08 | 228K | 229K | |
| 8:30AM | Nov/15 Jobless Claims (k) | Nov/15 | 220K | 228K | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed Business Index | Nov | -1.7 | -3.1 | -12.8 |
| 8:30AM | Nov/08 Continued Claims (k) | Nov/08 | 1974K | 1946K | |
| 8:30AM | Nov Philly Fed Prices Paid | Nov | 56.10 | 49.20 | |
| 8:45AM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Oct Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Oct | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Oct Existing home sales (ml) | Oct | 4.1M | 4.08M | 4.06M |
| 11:00AM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| 12:40PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 19 | |||
| 1:40PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| Friday, Nov 21 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 8:45AM | Fed Jefferson Speech | ||||
| 9:00AM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
| 9:45AM | Nov S&P Global Composite PMI | Nov | 54.5 | 54.6 | |
| 9:45AM | Nov S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Nov | 52 | 52.5 | |
| 9:45AM | Nov S&P Global Services PMI | Nov | 54.6 | 54.8 | |
| 10:00AM | Aug Wholesale inventories (o (%) | Aug | -0.2% | 0% | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Nov | 3.6% | 3.9% | |
| 10:00AM | Nov U Mich conditions | Nov | 52.3 | 58.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Nov | 50.5 | 53.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Nov | 4.7% | 4.6% | |
