Weekend Weakness And Another Showdown With a Technical Ceiling
Weekend Weakness And Another Showdown With a Technical Ceiling
Bonds are weaker to start the new week and the catalyst is simple. The U.S. ramped up air strikes in Iran, both in terms of number and distance inland. Iran responded by hitting various allied targets. Perhaps more importantly for financial markets, shipping traffic has returned back to war-time lows after a noticeable surge in the 2nd half of June. Oil prices launched higher overnight and bond yields followed. Still, the market doesn't view these punches and counterpunches as a sign of perpetual war, but rather a negotiation strategy--at least for now. Were it otherwise, we'd be seeing oil prices jump a lot more than they did, and 10yr yields wouldn't be successfully bouncing at the 4.59 ceiling.
Some Bond-Specific Weakness in The Afternoon
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Jul 13 | |||||
| 5:25AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 12:30PM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Jun Federal budget (bl) | Jun | $-120B | $-132.8B | $-293B |
| Tuesday, Jul 14 | |||||
| 6:00AM | Jun NFIB Business Optimism Index | Jun | 95.6 | 95.3 | |
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 21.0K | |||
| 8:30AM | Jun y/y CORE CPI (%) | Jun | 2.9% | 2.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Jun y/y Headline CPI (%) | Jun | 3.8% | 4.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Jun m/m CORE CPI (%) | Jun | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Jun m/m Headline CPI (%) | Jun | -0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Fed Chair Warsh Testimony | ||||
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.635% | |||
| 12:40PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 1:30PM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| 2:55PM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
