Broker/Owner
Collaborative Capital
License:
NMLS# 278724
NMLS# 2385760

Not Reading Too Much Into Friday's Weakness

Not Reading Too Much Into Friday's Weakness

At first glance, with only one report on the calendar, it's only logical to give Consumer Sentiment credit for sparking today's bond market selling spree.  Closer inspection adds nuance.  First off, selling began in earnest at 8:20am--the unofficial opening bell for bond market trading and a time of day where inclined sellers/buyers are often lined up and waiting to trade accordingly. Then there's the fact that the post-data selling didn't begin until 6 minutes after the data--an odd eventuality given the tendency for reactions to be perfectly immediate. Last but not least, we can entertain several reasons that traders might be interested in moving to the sidelines ahead of next week's potential geopolitical developments and Fed announcement. 

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Not Reading Too Much Into Friday's Weakness

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 99.04 -0.25 10YR 4.402% +0.039% 6/13/2025 5:00PM EST
Bonds have been selling fairly steadily throughout the session in an intentional move to the sidelines ahead of higher-than-normal potential volatility over the weekend.  This isn't just about econ data.  The selling started at 8:20am (the CME pit open) and hasn't correlated with news headlines or other events in a timely way. 10yr yields are now up 8bps on the day at 4.443 and MBS are down nearly 3/8ths of a point.  Many lenders are seeing well over an eigh...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.89% +0.04% 15YR Fixed 6.16% +0.02% 6/13/2025
The top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate index rose 0.04% on Friday, which would be a medium-sized defeat in and of itself. In the broader context, however, it was an acceptable adjustment on what has otherwise been a solid week.  Specifically, today's rates are still 0.08% lower than last Friday's. There were no standout individual sources of inspiration today. Keen observers may note that today's Consumer Sentiment data seemed to coincide with mid-day upward pressure in...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Jun 13
10:00AM Jun Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Jun 5.1% 6.6%
10:00AM Jun Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Jun 4.1% 4.2%
10:00AM Jun U Mich conditions Jun 63.7 59.4 58.9
10:00AM Jun Consumer Sentiment (ip) Jun 60.5 53.5 52.2
Monday, Jun 16
8:30AM Jun NY Fed Manufacturing Jun -6.7 -9.2
12:00PM NOPA Crush Report (%)
1:00PM 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 13
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The juxtaposition of last week's jobs report and this week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) created a fair amount of volatility, but for fans of low mortgage rates, it's too soon to care. Whether we're talking about interest rates in general or the Federal Reserve, both are sensitive to any major changes in the economy and inflation. Among economic data, last week's jobs report is the most capable ... READ MORE
Broker/Owner
Collaborative Capital
License:
NMLS# 278724
NMLS# 2385760