Brendon Garcia
Broker/Owner
Collaborative Capital
P: (805) 253-2053
https://brendongarcia.com/
Westlake Village, California
License:
NMLS# 278724
NMLS# 2385760

Solid Data-Driven Gains

Friday, August 14, 2026

Solid Data-Driven Gains

Thursday was a fairly straightforward session for bonds. Yields fell modestly overnight in response to slightly lower oil prices and then more forcefully after the cooler-than-expected PPI data. Mid-day fuel price volatility caused a slight pull-back, but not enough to undo a reasonably robust rally by the close. If there's a "yeah but," it's that yields remain broadly sideways near long-term highs and were unable to challenge last week's lows.

Latest Video Analysis

Solid Data-Driven Gains

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5
99.54
-0.07 
10YR TREASURY
4.658
+0.014 
8/14/2026 2:05AM EST
MBS Alert: MBS Down 6 Ticks (.19) From Highs
MBS are still up more than a quarter point on the day (+ 9 ticks or .28), but down 6 ticks (.19) from the highs. Whether or not that creates reprice risk will depend on the lender in question.  The earliest lenders priced at fairly similar levels to where we are right now. Lenders who priced after 10:15am ET are at higher risk as that's when MBS hit the AM highs. The bounce was a factor of higher oil prices which followed news of a new aircraft carrier being deployed ...   READ MORE
MBS Morning:
Thank You PPI
Alert:
Negative Reprice Risk Increasing
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.69%
-0.05% 
15YR Fixed
6.26%
-0.01% 
8/13/2026
Lowest Mortgage Rates in Nearly 4 Weeks
Mortgage rates dropped noticeably on Thursday on a combination of lower oil prices and a lower inflation reading via the Producer Price Index (PPI). Rates are driven by bonds and bonds are highly responsive to the outlook for inflation and the economy. The Iran war caused inflation implications to spike and the periodic relief in fuel prices has coincided with bond market improvement (and lower rates). The official inflation data is just another form of the same benefit. F...   READ MORE
Last Week This Week Next Week
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Aug 14
8:30AM Jul Retail Sales Control Group MoM Jul 0.3% 0.5%
8:30AM Jul Retail Sales (%) Jul 0.1% 0.2%
9:00AM Fed Venable Speech
10:00AM Aug Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Aug 4.2%
10:00AM Aug U Mich conditions Aug 55 54.8
10:00AM Aug Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Aug 3.3%
10:00AM Jun Business Inventories (% ) Jun 0.1% 0.3%
10:00AM Aug Consumer Sentiment (ip) Aug 54.5 55.2
Monday, Aug 17
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR
8:30AM Aug NY Fed Manufacturing Aug 15.60
10:00AM Aug NAHB housing market indx Aug 34
12:00PM NOPA Crush Report (%)
Brendon Garcia
Broker/Owner
Collaborative Capital
P: (805) 253-2053
https://brendongarcia.com/
Westlake Village, California
License:
NMLS# 278724
NMLS# 2385760
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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.