Broker/Owner
Collaborative Capital
License:
NMLS# 278724
NMLS# 2385760

Bonds Lose Almost All The Overnight Gains

Bonds Lose Almost All The Overnight Gains

Bonds rallied sharply overnight--adding onto an already decent rally yesterday afternoon that took 10yr yields from 4.38% to 4.23% in less than 24 hours. Now at Wednesday's close, we're back to unchanged levels near 4.30%.  The move follows a similar correction seen in longer-term oil futures and, in a general sense, a news cycle that made the ceasefire seem increasingly tenuous as the day progressed. The absence of a bigger, sustained rally speaks to the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. withdrawal from the Middle East as well as lingering impacts on energy costs that may still flow through to inflation data.

Market Movement Recap
09:08 AM

logically stronger overnight and holding gains steadily so far. MBS up almost 3/8ths and 10yr down 5.2bps at 4.244

10:58 AM

MBS up 5 ticks (.16) but down a quarter point from highs. 10yr down 2.8bps at 4.268, but up more than 3bps from lows. 

02:09 PM

No reaction to 10yr auction or Fed minutes. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 2.2bps at 4.274

02:44 PM

New lows. MBS just barely better than unchanged, and same story for 10yr yield at 4.293

Latest Video Analysis

Wednesday Could Be Entirely Different

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.20 +0.20 10YR 4.267% -0.030% 4/7/2026 8:28PM EST
Bonds continue sinking as the ceasefire is called into question by Iran. 10yr now unchanged on the day and MBS getting close (up only 2 ticks or 0.06). This is more than a quarter point below many lenders' rate sheet print times, thus making negative reprices increasingly likely.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.40% -0.04% 15YR Fixed 6.00% -0.02% 4/8/2026
It's a fluid situation in financial markets on Wednesday. The 2-week ceasefire in the Iran war caused a big reaction last night, but the benefit to the bond market (bonds dictate rates) has been increasingly wiped out during domestic hours.  If we measure the reversal versus yesterday's closing levels at 5pm ET, the reversal is almost complete. But bonds were already rallying in the afternoon due to expectations for the official ceasefire news. All that to say, we're s...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Apr 08
7:00AM Apr/03 MBA Refi Index Apr/03 919.9 946.4
7:00AM Apr/03 Mortgage Market Index Apr/03 276.0 278.3
7:00AM Apr/03 MBA Purchase Index Apr/03 161.1 159.4
10:30AM Apr/03 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Apr/03 3.081M 0.7M 5.451M
1:00PM 10-yr Note Auction (bl) 39
1:05PM Fed Daly Speech
2:00PM FOMC Minutes
Thursday, Apr 09
8:30AM Apr/04 Jobless Claims (k) Apr/04 210K 202K
8:30AM Mar/28 Continued Claims (k) Mar/28 1840K 1841K
8:30AM Feb PCE prices (m/m) (%) Feb 0.4% 0.3%
8:30AM Q4 PCE Prices (Q/Q) Q4 2.9% 2.8%
8:30AM Feb Core PCE (y/y) (%) Feb 3% 3.1%
8:30AM Feb Core PCE (m/m) (%) Feb 0.4% 0.4%
8:30AM Q4 Core PCE Prices QoQ Q4 2.7% 2.9%
8:30AM Feb PCE (y/y) (%) Feb 2.8% 2.8%
8:30AM Q4 GDP Final Sales (%) Q4 0.4% 4.5%
8:30AM Q4 GDP (%) Q4 0.7% 4.4%
8:30AM Q4 Corporate profits (% ) Q4 4.7%
12:00PM WASDE Report (%)
1:00PM 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 22
1:00PM 30-Year Bond Auction 4.871%
Read My Latest Newsletter
First things first, due to the market's reaction to the Iran war, mortgage rates remain much higher than they were at the end of February. That said, they definitely did not move higher this week. You may have seen contrary headlines on Wednesday and Thursday. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and Freddie Mac release their weekly rate surveys on those days, respectively. Both reported shar... READ MORE
Broker/Owner
Collaborative Capital
License:
NMLS# 278724
NMLS# 2385760