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Inconsequential Data and Modest Movement
Inconsequential Data and Modest Movement
If there's one resounding theme in the bond market this week, it's that trading momentum marched to its own beat with almost zero regard for the available economic data. While this was a notable disconnect on Wednesday (little reaction to ADP/ISM), it's fairly easy to reconcile on a day like today where the PCE data is super stale (delayed release from September) and the only other report, Consumer Sentiment, rarely has an impact. In general, the past 5 days have marked a casual return to the prevailing range, thus setting the stage for a bigger break after the bigger events on the horizon (Fed day next week and jobs report the week after).
Modestly weaker overnight but recovering a bit. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.2bps at 4.11
10yr yields are up 3bps at 4.128. MBS are down only 3 ticks (.09) on the day.
MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3.1bps at 4.129
Bond Momentum Continues Ignoring Data
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Dec 05 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Sep Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Sep | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| 10:00AM | Sep Personal Income (%) | Sep | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 10:00AM | Sep Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | Sep | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| 10:00AM | Sep Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Sep | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 10:00AM | Dec U Mich conditions | Dec | 50.7 | 51.3 | 51.1 |
| 10:00AM | Dec Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Dec | 4.1% | 4.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Dec Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Dec | 3.2% | 3.4% | |
| 10:00AM | Dec Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Dec | 53.3 | 52 | 51.0 |
| 3:00PM | Oct Consumer credit (bl) | Oct | $10.5B | $13.09B | |
| Monday, Dec 08 | |||||
| 11:00AM | Nov Consumer Inflation Expectations | Nov | 3.2% | ||
| 1:00PM | 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 58 | |||
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