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Robert Shamie

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Rallying on Peace Hopes and Weaker Data

Friday, May 1, 2026

Rallying on Peace Hopes and Weaker Data

Bonds were almost perfectly flat during the overnight session along with oil and stock futures. Morning trading ushered in more volatility as the war-related headlines began to heat up. The most significant developments involve reports of a new peace proposal from Iran--one that potentially offers more concessions on nuclear aspirations. News is thin so far, but oil prices are moving lower and bond yields are following with 10s moving from 4.40 to under 4.35 in fairly short order. ISM Manufacturing came in weaker around the same time and contributed to the move.

Latest Video Analysis

Bonds Recover With Oil, But Not Completely

MBS & Treasury Markets

UMBS 5.0 98.67 -0.07 10YR 4.372% +0.001% 5/1/2026 11:31AM EST

MBS Alert: Down Over an Eighth From The Highs

This alert only applies to lenders who priced or repriced after 10:20am ET. MBS are down 6 ticks (.19) since then. In some similar cases in the past, lenders who rushed to reprice for the better (after the type of early gains seen today) have had to do a token, corrective reprice that brings them back in line with their original rate sheets. This isn't necessarily likely at this point, but it's on the verge of being a possibility. As for the reversal, the marke... READ MORE

MBS Morning:

Rallying on Peace Hopes and Weaker Data

MBS Morning:

Oil Dropping, Bonds Rallying, Data Largely Ignored

Today's Mortgage Rates

30YR Fixed 6.45% -0.05% 15YR Fixed 6.01% -0.02% 4/30/2026

Mortgage Rates Recover Some of Yesterday's Losses

Mortgage rates spiked on Wednesday (yesterday) after reports suggested a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As has been the case for most of the past 2 months, interest rate movement was clearly correlated with oil prices. Now today, both are moving back in the other direction though not for reasons that are as obvious as yesterday's. The rally began just after 2am ET with both oil prices and bond yields dropping in concert. Lower bond yields mean lower rates, all... READ MORE

Last Week This Week Next Week

Economic Calendar

Time	Event	Period	Actual	Forecast	Prior
Friday, May 01
9:45AM	Apr S&P Global Manuf. PMI	Apr	54.5	54.0	52.3
10:00AM	Apr ISM Manufacturing PMI	Apr	52.7	53	52.7
10:00AM	Apr ISM Mfg Prices Paid	Apr	84.6	80	78.3
10:00AM	Apr ISM Manufacturing Employment	Apr	46.4	49	48.7
Monday, May 04
10:00AM	Mar Factory orders mm (%)	Mar			0%
12:50PM	Fed Williams Speech
2:00PM	Apr Total Vehicle Sales (ml)	Apr			16.3M
2:00PM	Loan Officer Survey

Robert Shamie

Fidelity Residential

P: (732) 686-9999 x101

M: (732) 859-2400

https://fidresi.com

Apply Now

Google

Zillow

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The interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages from independent data sources. Rate/APR terms may differ from those listed above based on the creditworthiness of the borrower. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or financial advice.

Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.