Uneventfully Weaker Regardless of Durable Goods Data

Uneventfully Weaker Regardless of Durable Goods Data

Bonds were weaker in the overnight session on a combination of anxiety over potential sales of US Treasuries in Japan and European economic data.  The domestic session brought actual selling of US Treasuries in the form of the 5yr Treasury auction, but the market already knew about that one.  The auction was reasonably well received and had no impact on trading levels.  Earlier in the morning, Durable Goods came out right in line with expectations and also had essentially no impact.  Overnight weakness was maintained throughout the day with most of the momentum being sideways near recent highs yields. 

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Uneventfully Weaker Regardless of Durable Goods Data

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0 99.47 +0.04 10YR 4.652% +0.010% 4/25/2024 8:03AM EST
The bond market has been decidedly more sideways after hitting longer-term yield highs last Tuesday.  10yr Treasuries have been a relatively narrow range since then, mostly respecting a ceiling of 4.65 and a floor of 4.57.  The first two days of the week saw yields start near the ceiling and improve by the close.  We're starting near the ceiling again today but so far, we haven't been as quick to rally.   Weakness began in the overnight sess...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 7.39% +0.01% 15YR Fixed 6.83% +0.01% 4/24/2024
The average mortgage lender was able to offer conventional 30yr fixed rates that were very close to yesterday's levels despite bond market movement that suggested a bigger spike.  In a vast majority of cases, if the bond market is in weaker territory compared to the previous day, rates will be higher in proportion to that weakness. In today's case, rates moved higher by an arguably insignificant 0.01% on average.  Bonds suggested the increase should be more like 0...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Apr 25
8:30AM Q1 Core PCE Prices QoQ Final Q1 3.4% 2%
8:30AM Apr/13 Continued Claims (ml) Apr/13 1810K 1812K
8:30AM Q1 GDP Final Sales (%) Q1 3.9%
8:30AM Mar Goods Trade Balance Adv Mar $-91.2B $-91.84B
8:30AM Mar Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv Mar 0.4%
8:30AM Apr/20 Jobless Claims (k) Apr/20 214K 212K
8:30AM Q1 PCE Prices QoQ Final Q1 1.8%
8:30AM Q1 GDP deflator (%) Q1 3% 1.7%
8:30AM Mar Wholesale inventories mm (%) Mar 0.2% 0.5%
8:30AM Q1 Real Consumer Spending QoQ Final Q1 2.8% 3.3%
8:30AM Q1 GDP (%) Q1 2.5% 3.4%
8:30AM Apr/20 Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) Apr/20 214.5K
10:00AM Mar Pending Home Sales YoY Mar -7%
10:00AM Mar Pending Home Sales (%) Mar 0.3% 1.6%
10:30AM Apr/19 Nat gas-EIA, change bcf Apr/19 87Bcf 50Bcf
11:00AM Apr KC Fed manufacturing Apr -9
11:00AM Apr Kansas Fed Composite Index Apr -7
11:30AM 4-Week Bill Auction 5.280%
11:30AM 8-Week Bill Auction 5.275%
12:00PM Apr/24 30-Year Mortgage Rate Apr/24 7.10%
12:00PM Apr/24 15-Year Mortgage Rate Apr/24 6.39%
1:00PM 7-Year Note Auction 4.185%
1:00PM 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) 44
Friday, Apr 26
8:30AM Mar Personal Income (%) Mar 0.5% 0.3%
8:30AM Mar Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) Mar 2.6% 2.8%
8:30AM Mar Core PCE (m/m) (%) Mar 0.3% 0.3%
8:30AM Mar PCE (y/y) (%) Mar 2.6% 2.5%
8:30AM Mar Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) Mar 0.6% 0.8%
8:30AM Mar PCE price index mm (%) Mar 0.3% 0.3%
10:00AM Apr Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Apr 3.1% 2.9%
10:00AM Apr Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Apr 3% 2.8%
10:00AM Apr Michigan Consumer Expectations Final Apr 77 77.4
10:00AM Apr U Mich conditions Apr 79.3 82.5
10:00AM Apr Consumer Sentiment (ip) Apr 77.8 79.4
1:00PM Apr/26 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Apr/26 511
1:00PM Apr/26 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count Apr/26 619
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The Fed expected to be able to cut rates 3 times in 2024 as recently as March. Financial markets agreed. But the data that's come out since then has everyone singing a different tune.  This week's data was more of an afterthought compared to last week's. The chart above pertains to Fed rate expectations, and that's not exactly the same as longer term rates like mortgages and 10yr Trea... READ MORE