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Robert Shamie

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Yields "Plummet" to Best Level In...

Thursday, October 8, 2026

Yields "Plummet" to Best Level In...

4 trading days... All the way back on October 2nd (last Friday), intraday lows were 5.151%. In other words, today's rally was definitely nice and definitely worth discussing, but if we're witnessing the inception of anything legitimately exciting here, it's in an embryonic stage as of today. 10yr yields would need to be below 5.0% just over a month from now to confirm a truly big shift. As for drivers, we'd have a hard time reconciling today's friendly reversal without giving some credit to investors "buying the dip" in bond prices (or the supportive ceiling in yields around 5.33-5.35). Additional mid-day gains followed war headlines and a decently strong 30yr bond auction. No major data tomorrow.

Latest Video Analysis

Yields Plummet

MBS & Treasury Markets

UMBS 6.0

98.22

+0.39

10YR TREASURY

5.296

+0.004

10/8/2026 5:40PM EST

MBS Morning: It's Time to Play "Name That Line"

Bonds were initially moderately weaker this morning morning in a move that followed oil prices and hawkish Fed comments. Chris Waller said more hikes were needed due to a strong economy, persistently high inflation, and the risk that inflation expectations would become unanchored after 5.5 years above target. This hit the short end of the curve at 4:30am ET and brought Fed Funds Futures for the middle of next year back to yesterday's levels. Oil prices were rising at t... READ MORE

Update:

Back Into Positive Territory After 10yr Auction

MBS Morning:

No Surprise: It Was a Trap

Today's Mortgage Rates

30YR Fixed

7.50%

-0.09%

15YR Fixed

7.17%

-0.05%

10/8/2026

Mortgage Rates Near 2-Week Lows After Biggest Daily Drop in 3 Months

Mortgage rates moved lower today at their fastest pace in 3 months with the average top-tier 30yr fixed scenario ultimately falling 0.09%. There were thrills and chills along the way as well. The day actually began with a 0.01% INCREASE versus yesterday's latest levels. This highlights a unique aspect of our rate index which has the ability to change more than once per day in response to mortgage lenders making intraday updates to their rate offerings. In other words, almo... READ MORE

Last Week This Week Next Week

Economic Calendar

Time	Event	Period	Actual	Forecast	Prior
Thursday, Oct 08
8:30AM	Oct/03 Jobless Claims (k)	Oct/03	197K	200K	197K
8:30AM	Sep/26 Continued Claims (k)	Sep/26	1716K	1710K	1701K
9:20AM	NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%)			$3.891 billion
1:00PM	30-Yr Bond Auction (bl)		22
1:40PM	Fed Musalem Speech
Friday, Oct 09
12:00AM	Roll Date - UMBS 30YR
10:00AM	Oct Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%)	Oct			3.4%
10:00AM	Oct Consumer Sentiment (ip)	Oct		47.6	48.1
10:00AM	Oct U Mich conditions	Oct		50.5	50.9
10:00AM	Oct Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%)	Oct			4.6%
12:00PM	WASDE Report (%)
4:00PM	Fed Collins Speech

Robert Shamie

Fidelity Residential

P: (732) 686-9999 x101

M: (732) 859-2400

https://fidresi.com

Apply Now

Google

Zillow

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The interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages from independent data sources. Rate/APR terms may differ from those listed above based on the creditworthiness of the borrower. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or financial advice.

Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.