Tune Out The Noise

Tune Out The Noise

Yesterday's Treasury buyback announcement and today's comments from Bessent make for good drama in financial news, but the actual market impact had run its course within minutes of the initial announcement and we haven't seen solid evidence that the market has continued to care. Rather, the ample evidence is that an overnight oil price spike pushed bond yields higher. Peaks and valleys aligned perfectly. Elevated corporate issuance lingers constantly in the background causing broad elevation in bonds, but not much of an intraday impulse (even after an afternoon announcement of a big Broadcom bond offering in the pipeline). 

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Tune Out The Noise

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5
99.56
-0.01 
10YR TREASURY
4.645
-0.002 
8/19/2026 9:05PM EST
The correlation between bonds and fuel prices was already creeping back into the picture yesterday. After the Treasury buyback announcement got all of the morning's attention, fuel prices guided the ebbs and flows in the second half of the day. Now today, we're fully back to regularly scheduled programming and there are only so many shows.   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.76%
+0.04% 
15YR Fixed
6.30%
+0.03% 
8/20/2026
While Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey may show rates moving slightly lower this week, today's rates are actually higher than they were at the same time last week (6.76% vs 6.69%). Financial news continued to focus on yesterday's announcement of Treasury buybacks after Secretary Bessent spoke on CNBC this morning, but today's bump in rates had more to do with fuel prices. Treasury yields serve as an almost perfect proxy for intraday rate movement with 10yr yields o...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Aug 20
8:30AM Aug/15 Jobless Claims (k) Aug/15 206K 210K 209K
8:30AM Aug Philly Fed Prices Paid Aug 40.90 53.90
8:30AM Aug/08 Continued Claims (k) Aug/08 1799K 1790K 1777K
8:30AM Aug Philly Fed Business Index Aug 47.4 25 41.4
10:00AM Jul CB Leading Index MoM (%) Jul 0.2% 0.1% -0.2%
1:00PM 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 8
Friday, Aug 21
9:45AM Aug S&P Global Services PMI Aug 54 54.6
9:45AM Aug S&P Global Manuf. PMI Aug 53.9 53.9
9:45AM Aug S&P Global Composite PMI Aug 54.5