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Hawkish Read on Warsh Prompts Heavy Selling
Hawkish Read on Warsh Prompts Heavy Selling
Jackson Hole speeches are hit and miss when it comes to bond market volatility. Today's Warsh speech was something of a direct hit--more than enough to sink the battleship of anyone hoping for lower rates to end the week. Warsh's hawkishness was limited to tough talk on inflation and an upbeat assessment of the economy. It wasn't terribly different from the late July press conference, but the market viewed it as upgrading the chance of a rate hike before the end of 2026. 2yr Treasury yields (more sensitive to Fed rate expectations than the 10yr) rose more than 12bps by the close. MBS shed 3/8ths of a point and mortgage rates crested 3 week highs.
Fairly Calm Despite Some Fuel Price Pressure
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Aug 28 | |||||
| 9:45AM | Aug Chicago PMI | Aug | 47.1 | 58.3 | 57.6 |
| 10:00AM | Aug Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Aug | 51.7 | 51.0 | 55.2 |
| 10:00AM | Aug Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Aug | 4% | 4.3% | 4.2% |
| 10:00AM | Aug U Mich conditions | Aug | 51.9 | 51.8 | 54.8 |
| 10:00AM | Aug Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Aug | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| 10:00AM | Non Farm Payrolls Annual Revision (k) | -79K | -911K | ||
| 10:00AM | Fed Chair Warsh Speech | ||||
| 10:07AM | Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivers remarks from Jackson Hole | ||||
| 12:30PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 8:00PM | Jackson Hole Symposium | ||||
| Monday, Aug 31 | |||||
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