Markets Hit by Glut of Escalation Headlines

Markets Hit by Glut of Escalation Headlines

Monday's trading session ended up being as simple as it was unpleasant. Bonds lost ground somewhat sharply as war-related headlines kept adding up to additional escalation. Highlights include overnight reports of Iran hitting a U.S. warship with missiles, multiple reports of UAE air defenses being activated, and damage/fire at a UAE oil export terminal. While bonds had a few moments of independence, they were broadly driven by rising oil prices associated with the aforementioned headlines.

Latest Video Analysis

Markets Hit by Glut of Escalation Headlines

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 98.20 -0.51 10YR 4.438% +0.063% 5/4/2026 5:59PM EST
The market is actively reacting to a swath of war-related headlines that all generally speak to the notion of escalation in the Iran war. Bond yields are moving up with oil prices, but are also exhibiting some of their own negative momentum even when oil prices have plateaued.  10yr yields are up 8bps at 4.454--now breaking up and over the most recent technical ceiling at 4.42. MBS are down 18 ticks (.56) on the day and more than a quarter point from most lenders' ...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.56% +0.12% 15YR Fixed 6.05% +0.04% 5/4/2026
Top-tier 30-year fixed rates are back above 6.5% today for the first time in more than a month for the average lender. Many lenders raised rates during the course of the day as well.  Those who didn't will likely have to raise rates tomorrow unless the underlying bond market makes a significant recovery overnight. Rates are driven by bonds and bonds are starting the week at higher yields in response to war-related developments. In general, escalation in the Iran war pu...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, May 04
8:00AM Apr Total Vehicle Sales (ml) Apr 15.9M 16.0M 16.3M
10:00AM Mar Factory orders mm (%) Mar 1.5% 0.5% 0%
12:50PM Fed Williams Speech
2:00PM Loan Officer Survey
Tuesday, May 05
8:00AM Feb Building Permits (ml) Feb 1.386M
8:00AM Mar Building Permits (ml) Mar
8:30AM Mar Trade Gap (bl) Mar $-60.5B $-57.3B
9:45AM Apr S&P Global Services PMI Apr 51.3 49.8
9:45AM Apr S&P Global Composite PMI Apr 52.0 50.3
10:00AM Feb New Home Sales (ml) Feb 0.587M
10:00AM Feb New Home Sales (%) (%) Feb -17.6%
10:00AM Apr ISM N-Mfg PMI Apr 53.7 54.0
10:00AM Apr ISM Services Employment Apr 45.2
10:00AM Apr ISM Services Prices Apr 70.7
10:00AM Apr ISM Biz Activity Apr 53.9
10:00AM Apr ISM Services New Orders Apr 60.6
10:00AM Mar New Home Sales (%) (%) Mar -17.6%
10:00AM Mar JOLTs Job Quits (ml) Mar 2.974M
10:00AM Mar USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) Mar 6.83M 6.882M
10:00AM Mar New Home Sales (ml) Mar 0.668M
10:00AM Fed Bowman Speech
10:10AM May IBD economic optimism May 42 42.8
10:20AM NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) $7.585 billion
11:30AM 6-Week Bill Auction (%) 3.590%
12:30PM Fed Barr Speech