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Robert Shamie

Fidelity Residential

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M: (732) 859-2400

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Some Signs of Resilience But It's Still Anyone's Game

Wednesday, September 16, 2026

Some Signs of Resilience But It's Still Anyone's Game

After several consecutive business days of abject unpleasantness in the bond/mortgage market, Tuesday finally offered a modest consolation. During domestic trading hours, every attempt to push 10yr yields over 5% was met with a supportive bounce--presumably from value buyers targeting 5% as a good entry point to own 10yr notes for investment purposes. We wouldn't read too much into this just yet. It is a defensible conclusion today (especially in light of oil prices surging over to over $106), but Wednesday's Fed reaction could completely change the landscape. We'll discuss "what if" scenarios in today's recap video.

Latest Video Analysis

Some Signs of Resilience

MBS & Treasury Markets

UMBS 5.5

97.22

+0.14

10YR TREASURY

4.980

-0.022

9/15/2026 11:14PM EST

MBS Morning: 5% Yields Bringing Value Buyers?

With no meaningful econ data on tap today and no high stakes events, bonds are left to watch news headlines and attend to last-minute positioning goals before tomorrow's Fed announcement. There's a bit more of a disconnect between oil prices and bond yields than normal today. Earlier in the overnight session, yields actually led the way higher. In the past hour, however, oil is spiking and yields are trying to hold under yesterday's domestic session highs. This might (M... READ MORE

Alert:

Down More Than an Eighth From Highs

Update:

Back Into Positive Territory After War/Trump Headlines

Today's Mortgage Rates

30YR Fixed

7.22%

+0.05%

15YR Fixed

6.82%

+0.12%

9/15/2026

Mortgage Rates Higher Again Ahead of Fed

Mortgage rates moved higher for the 6th day in a row on Tuesday and to the highest levels since January, 2025. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is up to 7.22% and the most prevalently-quoted top-tier rate is 7.25%. Over the past 6 days, the average is up 0.33%, which is is the most abrupt jump since October 2024. At least some of the recent volatility is due to the implications of recent economic data and oil price implications on Fed policy. Tomorrow brings the next r... READ MORE

Last Week This Week Next Week

Economic Calendar

Time	Event	Period	Actual	Forecast	Prior
Wednesday, Sep 16
12:00AM	Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR
7:00AM	Sep/11 MBA Refi Index	Sep/11			687.3
7:00AM	Sep/11 MBA Purchase Index	Sep/11			157.5
7:00AM	Sep/11 Mortgage Market Index	Sep/11			240.6
8:30AM	Aug Import prices mm (%)	Aug		0.4%	-0.4%
8:30AM	Aug Retail Sales (%)	Aug		0.8%	-0.6%
8:30AM	Aug Retail Sales Control Group MoM	Aug		0.4%	-0.4%
10:00AM	Jul Business Inventories (% )	Jul		0.3%	0%
10:00AM	Sep NAHB housing market indx	Sep		34	35
10:30AM	Sep/11 Crude Oil Inventory (ml)	Sep/11			-0.391M
2:00PM	FOMC Economic Projections
2:00PM	Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr				3.6%
2:00PM	Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr				3.4%
2:00PM	Interest Rate Projection - Longer				3.1%
2:00PM	Interest Rate Projection - Current				3.8%
2:00PM	Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr				3.1%
2:00PM	Fed Interest Rate Decision			4%	3.75%
2:30PM	Fed Press Conference
Thursday, Sep 17
8:30AM	Sep/05 Continued Claims (k)	Sep/05		1780K	1774K
8:30AM	Sep/12 Jobless Claims (k)	Sep/12		208K	206K
8:30AM	Sep Philly Fed Business Index	Sep		30.5	47.4
8:30AM	Aug Housing starts number mm (ml)	Aug		1.31M	1.239M
8:30AM	Aug Building Permits (ml)	Aug		1.41M	1.433M
8:30AM	Sep Philly Fed Prices Paid	Sep			40.90
10:00AM	Aug Pending Home Sales (%)	Aug		2%	-2.3%
1:00PM	10-yr Note Auction (bl)		19

Robert Shamie

Fidelity Residential

P: (732) 686-9999 x101

M: (732) 859-2400

https://fidresi.com

Apply Now

Google

Zillow

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The interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages from independent data sources. Rate/APR terms may differ from those listed above based on the creditworthiness of the borrower. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or financial advice.

Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.