Bombarded by Headlines, But Little-Changed

Bombarded by Headlines, But Little-Changed

Monday's trading session ended up being an exercise in headline-watching, as has been the case on so many days since the start of the Iran war. Today was more active than normal in that regard. The earliest headlines (as covered in the AM commentary) were helpful until they weren't. Subsequent headlines continued pushing back on the notion of an easy peace deal until 3pm. At that point, Trump posted that a planned military operation for tomorrow was cancelled and that serious negotiations were now taking place between great leaders and allies, and that a deal will be made. Bond yields and oil prices dropped on that one with Treasuries ultimately making it back to unchanged in the final hour of the session.

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Bombarded by Headlines, But Little-Changed

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0
97.27
-0.15 
10YR TREASURY
4.610
+0.021 
5/19/2026 2:09AM EST
MBS are now down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and more than a quarter point form some early lenders' rate sheet print times. Any lender who initially priced before 10:30am is increasingly likely to be considering a negative reprice.   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.68%
+0.03% 
15YR Fixed
6.12%
+0.02% 
5/18/2026
Mortgage rates hit their highest levels in more than 9 months at the end of last week. Now today, they've edged slightly higher yet again with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate at 6.68% versus 6.65% on Friday. This wasn't necessarily destined to be the case today. In fact the day began with the average lender unchanged. But the underlying market remains highly attuned to breaking news on the Iran war. Earlier in the day, that news was helpful for rates as it spoke to ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, May 19
12:00AM Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 33.0K
9:00AM Fed Waller Speech
10:00AM Apr Pending Home Sales (%) Apr 1.3% 1.5%
11:30AM 6-Week Bill Auction (%) 3.615%
7:00PM Fed Paulson Speech
7:30PM Fed Venable Speech
Wednesday, May 20
7:00AM May/15 Mortgage Market Index May/15 290.1
7:00AM May/15 MBA Refi Index May/15 921.1
7:00AM May/15 MBA Purchase Index May/15 177.7
8:00AM Fed Paulson Speech
10:15AM Fed Barr Speech
10:30AM May/15 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) May/15 -4.306M
1:00PM 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 16
2:00PM FOMC Minutes