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Pre Fed Jitters? Not Exactly
Pre Fed Jitters? Not Exactly
Both stocks and bonds began to swoon moments after this morning's 9:30am NYSE open. That sort of pervasive selling is often seen when the Fed's rate cut outlook is deteriorating. With the Fed on deck Wednesday, it would be easy to slap "pre-Fed jitters" on the label of today's sell-off and call it good. But Fed Funds Futures don't corroborate that narrative. In fact, nothing does (at least not when it comes to obvious data/events/news). We're left to lean on "elevated random volatility between Thanksgiving and New Years." It's our least favorite explanation, but in today's case, it's also the least stupid one we've seen.
Pre Fed Jitters? Not Exactly
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Dec 09 | |||||
| 6:00AM | Nov NFIB Business Optimism Index | Nov | 98.4 | 98.2 | |
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | -13.5K | |||
| 10:00AM | Sep USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Sep | 7.15M | 7.227M | |
| 10:00AM | Sep JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Sep | 3.091M | ||
| 10:00AM | Oct USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Oct | |||
| 10:00AM | Oct JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Oct | |||
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.700% | |||
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 39 | |||
| Wednesday, Dec 10 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Dec/05 MBA Refi Index | Dec/05 | 1041.9 | ||
| 7:00AM | Dec/05 MBA Purchase Index | Dec/05 | 186.1 | ||
| 7:00AM | Dec/05 Mortgage Market Index | Dec/05 | 313.0 | ||
| 8:30AM | Sep Wholesale inventories (o (%) | Sep | -0.2% | 0% | |
| 8:30AM | Q3 Employment costs (%) | Q3 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 10:30AM | Dec/05 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Dec/05 | 0.574M | ||
| 2:00PM | Nov Federal budget (bl) | Nov | $-142.5B | $-284B | |
| 2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75% | 4.0% | ||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Economic Projections | ||||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr | 3.4% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr | 3.1% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr | 3.1% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Longer | 3% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Current | 3.6% | |||
| 2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||
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