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Bonds Growing Tired of "Game On! Game Off!" News Cycle
Bonds Growing Tired of "Game On! Game Off!" News Cycle
Markets have plenty of war-related headlines to digest at any given moment these days. And while some of those headlines have been the biggest market movers of the month, traders are increasingly focusing on the examples that speak to the biggest-picture changes. Specifically, markets aren't as interested in Wayne and Garth saying "game on" and "game off," but rather, the actual moment that they pack up their sticks and nets and stop playing street hockey for the day (i.e. an announcement that the war is fully over and Hormuz is fully re-opened). In the meantime, the lesser headlines may add some slight 2-way volatility, but there are no obvious examples of that so far today (despite hundreds of potential opportunities). Bonds are taking the morning to consolidate the past 2 days of gains with a modest pull-back against a backdrop void of high consequence econ data.
Modestly weaker overnight, partly following oil. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1.8bps at 4.268
Weaker into the noon hour, but stabilizing now. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3.5bps at 4.284
little-changed since last update. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3.1bps at 4.281
Bonds Follow Oil's Lead, Heading Lower on War-Related Optimism
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Apr 15 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Apr/10 MBA Refi Index | Apr/10 | 966.8 | 919.9 | |
| 7:00AM | Apr/10 MBA Purchase Index | Apr/10 | 159.5 | 161.1 | |
| 7:00AM | Apr/10 Mortgage Market Index | Apr/10 | 281.0 | 276.0 | |
| 8:30AM | Apr NY Fed Manufacturing | Apr | 11.00 | -0.5 | -0.20 |
| 8:30AM | Mar Import prices mm (%) | Mar | 0.8% | 2% | 1.3% |
| 8:30AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Apr NAHB housing market indx | Apr | 34 | 37 | 38 |
| 10:30AM | Apr/10 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Apr/10 | -0.913M | 0.2M | 3.081M |
| 12:00PM | NOPA Crush Report (%) | ||||
| 1:45PM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
| Thursday, Apr 16 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Apr/11 Jobless Claims (k) | Apr/11 | 215K | 219K | |
| 8:30AM | Apr/04 Continued Claims (k) | Apr/04 | 1810K | 1794K | |
| 8:30AM | Apr Philly Fed Prices Paid | Apr | 44.70 | ||
| 8:30AM | Apr Philly Fed Business Index | Apr | 10 | 18.1 | |
| 8:35AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 9:15AM | Mar Industrial Production (%) | Mar | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 10:35AM | Fed Miran Speech | ||||
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