Early Gains And Losses on Conflicting War Headlines

Early Gains And Losses on Conflicting War Headlines

Bonds began the overnight session by drifting somewhat higher in yield. The 10yr hit 4.63 before recovering modestly just before domestic trading began. Yields were still slightly higher at 7:30am but moved lower after headlines cited rumors that the U.S. agreed to lift Iran's oil sanctions. Subsequent headlines cited a revised counter-proposal from Iran in which it would accept a long-term freeze of its nuclear program in exchange for a truce and gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Bonds rallied on both those newswires with 10s making it below 4.57. They're since reversed course on a 3rd set of newswires citing Iran's negotiators as saying U.S. demand remain excessive despite the changes in the draft proposal.

Latest Video Analysis

Bonds Continued Drifting Weaker Throughout The Day

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0
97.34
-0.06 
10YR TREASURY
4.595
+0.004 
5/18/2026 11:40AM EST
5.0 MBS coupons are unchanged on the day after being up just over 5 ticks at the most recent high. Those highs correspond with some lenders' rate sheet print times. On some occasions, we've seen the jumpiest lenders reprice for the worse in this scenario, but risks wouldn't be widespread unless we lose several more ticks. The losses are in response to headlines that push back on the last set of headlines regarding Iran's updated counterproposal.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
6.65%
+0.00% 
15YR Fixed
6.10%
+0.00% 
5/18/2026
Mortgage rates are driven by bonds and the bond market hoped to see more evidence of shift toward peace during the 2-day Trump/Xi meeting in China. As soon as Trump got back on the plane to head home, bonds began tanking (i.e. jumping to higher yields). When bond yields spike, mortgage rates follow, and today is no exception. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is up to 6.62% this morning, right in line with levels seen on March 26th and 27th and the highest since August ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, May 18
8:30AM Fed Venable Speech
10:00AM May NAHB housing market indx May 37 35 34
Tuesday, May 19
12:00AM Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 33.0K
9:00AM Fed Waller Speech
10:00AM Apr Pending Home Sales (%) Apr 1.3% 1.5%
11:30AM 6-Week Bill Auction (%) 3.615%
7:00PM Fed Paulson Speech
7:30PM Fed Venable Speech