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Two-Way Trading But Not Much Day-Over-Day Movement

Friday, December 12, 2025

Two-Way Trading But Not Much Day-Over-Day Movement

Bonds had a solid morning, adding moderately to yesterday's rally and taking yields well into the lowest levels since last Friday. But from just after the 9:30am NYSE open, bonds leaked slowly weaker, ultimately ending the day closer to unchanged levels. In the bigger picture, nothing interesting or significant happened, and December 16th (jobs report day) is set to be the only other obviously tradeable day of 2025.

Latest Video Analysis

Two Way Trading But No Major Change On The Day

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.33 -0.04 10YR 4.179% +0.023% 12/12/2025 7:52AM EST
Down More Than an Eighth From Highs
MBS are still slightly stronger on the day but now down 6 ticks (.19) from the AM price plateau.  This is definitely in the range of potential reprice risk scenarios.    READ MORE
MBS Morning:
Follow-Through Rally. What's Up With Big Swings in Jobless Claims?
Update:
Back up to Best Levels
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.26% -0.04% 15YR Fixed 5.76% -0.04% 12/11/2025
Mortgage Rates Hit Lowest Levels of The Week
As is sometimes the case on the day following a Fed day, the bond market carried a bit more momentum in the same direction as yesterday afternoon. Fortunately, the momentum was toward lower rates this time around--a nice break from the past two Fed days which resulted in several days (and weeks) of higher rates. This leaves the average lender roughly in the middle of the range over the past 3 months. These are also the lowest levels seen since last Thursday for the average ...   READ MORE
Last Week This Week Next Week
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Dec 12
8:00AM Fed Paulson Speech
8:30AM Fed Hammack Speech
10:35AM Fed Goolsbee Speech
Monday, Dec 15
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR
8:30AM Dec NY Fed Manufacturing Dec 18.70
10:00AM Dec NAHB housing market indx Dec 38
12:00PM NOPA Crush Report (%)
Recent Housing News
Read My Latest Newsletter
Are Rates About to Make a Move Because of The Fed?
12/5/2025 4:04PM
December 10th will be the most interesting Fed announcement in more than a year.  It's the first time since mid-2024 where a rate cut (or lack thereof) has not been a foregone conclusion. This means the Fed has a chance, albeit a small one, to surprise the market.  The market currently sees a better-than-85% chance of a cut at next week's meeting according to Fed Funds Futures (contra... READ MORE
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-  Rent vs. Buy
-  Blended Rate
Robert Shamie
Fidelity Residential
P: (732) 686-9999 x101
M: (732) 859-2400
https://fidresi.com
Apply Now
Google
Zillow
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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.