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Dueling Narratives Leave Yields Higher Ahead of Jobs Report
Dueling Narratives Leave Yields Higher Ahead of Jobs Report
In the overnight session yields followed oil prices higher, but notably, Treasuries continued to sell even after oil leveled off. Then during domestic hours, it was Treasuries' turn to level off while oil prices spiked. From 9am to 2pm, oil rose nearly $5/bbl while Treasury yields remained completely flat. One way to justify this would be via safe-haven demand from heavy stock losses, but we continue not loving that explanation because it is even less reliably correlated than bonds vs oil. At this point, we're simply hoping that the jobs report helps restore some sense of normal market/data correlation, but at this point, anything's possible.
Weaker overnight and little-changed after data. MBS down just over an eighth and 10yr up 3.6bps at 4.136
sideways at weaker levels. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 3.6bps at 4.136
sideways at similar levels. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 3.4bps at 4.134
Slightly Weaker Ahead of Jobs Report
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Mar 05 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Feb Challenger layoffs (k) | Feb | 48.307K | 108.435K | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Import prices mm (%) | Jan | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Final | Q4 | 2.8% | 1.9% | 4.9% |
| 8:30AM | Feb/28 Jobless Claims (k) | Feb/28 | 213K | 215K | 212K |
| 8:30AM | Feb/21 Continued Claims (k) | Feb/21 | 1868K | 1850K | 1833K |
| 8:30AM | Q4 Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final | Q4 | 2.8% | 2% | -1.9% |
| Friday, Mar 06 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Feb Participation Rate | Feb | 62.5% | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb Average earnings mm (%) | Feb | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Retail Sales (%) | Jan | -0.3% | 0% | |
| 8:30AM | Jan Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Jan | 0.2% | -0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Feb | 59K | 130K | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Unemployment rate mm (%) | Feb | 4.3% | 4.3% | |
| 10:00AM | Dec Business Inventories (% ) | Dec | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 1:30PM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 3:00PM | Jan Consumer credit (bl) | Jan | $12B | $24.05B | |
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