Range-Bound Cruise Control, PM Edition

Range-Bound Cruise Control, PM Edition

Bonds came into the domestic session at slightly weaker levels and held mostly sideways for the entire day. There were no meaningful market movers in play, let alone any meaningful movement. Volume clocked in at the lowest non-holiday level of the year. NOTE: this week's analysis will be shorter and more basic than normal unless something interesting happens.

Market Movement Recap
09:25 AM

modestly weaker overnight and holding sideways so far.  MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2bps at 4.16

01:52 PM

MBS still down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.8bps at 4.168

03:37 PM

MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.166

Latest Video Analysis

Range-Bound Cruise Control PM Edition

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.64 -0.03 10YR 4.160% +0.020% 12/22/2025 5:29PM EST
2025 is effectively over when it comes to meaningful shifts in the bond market. The coming days will be so heavily-affected by light volume/ liquidity that any apparently significant shifts would be taken with a grain of salt anyway. Even as we look back over the past 4 months, we see a persistence of the very narrow 4.00-4.20 range in 10yr yields. The past 3 weeks have been especially narrow.  While the recent micro range in 10s is on the high side of the bro...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.24% -0.01% 15YR Fixed 5.74% -0.01% 12/22/2025
Mortgage rates are tied to movement in the bond market and bonds were close enough to Friday's levels that mortgage rates were essentially unchanged today. This keeps the average lender in the lower portion of the narrow range seen over the past 4 months.  If rates manage to move noticeably lower from here, they'll be challenging the lowest levels in more than 3 years. Meaningful momentum may be hard to come by over the next 2 weeks. During that time, the bond market ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Dec 22
9:20AM NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months (%) $6.801 million
1:00PM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 69
Tuesday, Dec 23
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 16.25K
8:30AM Q3 Corporate profits (% ) Q3 0.2%
8:30AM Q3 Core PCE Prices QoQ Q3 2.9% 2.6%
8:30AM Oct Durable goods (%) Oct -1.5% 0.5%
8:30AM Oct Core CapEx (%) Oct 0.9%
8:30AM Q3 GDP (%) Q3 3.2% 3.8%
9:15AM Oct Industrial Production (%) Oct 0.1% 0.1%
10:00AM Dec CB Consumer Confidence (%) Dec 92 88.7
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 70
Read My Latest Newsletter
The two most important economic reports of the month were released this week. Both showed promising results for rates, and although rates improved, the reaction was smaller than expected . First up was November's jobs report, which came out on Tuesday morning. It showed the highest unemployment rate since 2021 at 4.6%--well above the 4.4% forecast. Under normal circumstances, this woul... READ MORE