Light Calendar Leaves Tech Concerns in Focus

Light Calendar Leaves Tech Concerns in Focus

Last week's most notable development was a flight to safety in the bond market precipitated by concerns about a shift in tech sector sentiment. The shift in question was mainly driven by Coreweave which saw shares plummet and corporate debt spreads explode. That cause some concern about spillover to the rest of the tech sector. Treasuries benefited not only only from general safe haven demand, but also because the tech jitters implied a slower pace of AI capex and corporate debt issuance (both of which had previously created upward pressure on bond yields). The NASDAQ is starting the new week well off Friday afternoon's lows and 10yr yields have retreated accordingly. That said, Treasuries remain ready to benefit from any resurgence in AI sector jitters. In the absence of any high-impact economic data, assessing that risk will be this week's main theme.

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Could Have Been Better or Worse

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 6.0
98.74
-0.21 
10YR TREASURY
5.138
+0.058 
10/19/2026 12:00PM EST
Negative reprice risk is now a consideration for most lenders and not just the jumpier "early crowd."  MBS are down 10 tick (.31) on the day and at least 5 ticks (.16) for almost any lender (except the super late crowd that didn't price until closer to 11am).    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed
7.40%
+0.03% 
15YR Fixed
7.05%
+0.01% 
10/19/2026
After dropping sharply over the past 5 days, mortgage rates finally reminded us that they're still capable of moving higher. Thankfully, today's bump was modest in the recent context, only adding 0.04% to a 30yr fixed that had fallen 0.27% since October 7th.  Even though today's losses were minimal, they're potentially informative. Much of this week's improvement can be traced to concerns surrounding tech companies, and possible warning signs about a reduction in AI-...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Oct 19
12:00AM Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR
10:00AM Oct NAHB housing market indx Oct 29 32 32
Tuesday, Oct 20
8:15AM ADP Employment Change Weekly 24.75K
8:30AM Sep Building Permits (ml) Sep 1.40M 1.403M
8:30AM Sep Housing starts number mm (ml) Sep 1.31M 1.275M
10:00AM Sep Pending Home Sales (%) Sep -0.5% 0.3%
11:30AM 6-Week Bill Auction (%) 3.980%