Bonds Recover on Oil Price Hopes

Bonds Recover on Oil Price Hopes

Bonds were weaker to start the day with oil prices moving sharply higher after last night's Trump speech. But a few hours into the trading session, the move was completely erased and reversed after some fairly simple headlines regarding Iran/Oman working on a resolution to open the Strait of Hormuz. Trump's speech and the Iran/Oman news may as well have been the only two things that happened today because those were the only moments with any serious market movement. The jobs report is on deck for tomorrow's holiday-shortened trading session.

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Bonds Recover on Oil Price Hopes

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 98.60 -0.30 10YR 4.351% +0.044% 4/3/2026 9:30AM EST
Average earnings mm (Mar) 0.2% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.4% prev Non Farm Payrolls (Mar) 178K vs 60K f'cast, -92K prev Participation Rate (Mar) 61.9% vs -- f'cast, 62% prev Unemployment rate mm (Mar) 4.3% vs 4.4% f'cast, 4.4% prev 10yr yields up a quick 5.2bps at 4.359 and MBS down roughly 3/8ths of a point.   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.41% -0.04% 15YR Fixed 6.01% -0.01% 4/2/2026
On any given Thursday, there's a decent enough chance that the average mortgage rate headline will be unintentionally misleading. At issue is media reliance on the longstanding weekly mortgage rate surveys. If news stories are going to cite this data, that's fine, but it's critical to understand the methodology. Whether it's MBA (reported yesterday) or Freddie Mac (reported today), the weekly surveys have an inherent reporting lag--that is, they are published at least a day...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Apr 03
8:30AM Mar Participation Rate Mar 61.9% 62%
8:30AM Mar Average earnings mm (%) Mar 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%
8:30AM Mar Unemployment rate mm (%) Mar 4.3% 4.4% 4.4%
8:30AM Mar Non Farm Payrolls (k) Mar 178K 60K -92K
9:45AM Mar S&P Global Services PMI Mar 51.1 51.7
9:45AM Mar S&P Global Composite PMI Mar 51.4 51.9
12:00PM Good Friday
Monday, Apr 06
10:00AM Mar ISM Biz Activity Mar 59.9
10:00AM Mar ISM Services Prices Mar 63.0
10:00AM Mar ISM Services New Orders Mar 58.6
10:00AM Mar ISM Services Employment Mar 51.8
10:00AM Mar ISM N-Mfg PMI Mar 55 56.1
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The Iran war continues to dominate financial markets and mortgage rates are no exception. That's no great surprise considering rates are driven by movement in the bond market. Still, the direction of the movement may be a surprise to some. All else equal, things that cause economic pain and uncertainty tend to be good for rates because they drive investors out of riskier assets like stocks and ... READ MORE