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Bonds Ultimately Follow Oil's Lead, Heading Lower War-Related Optimism
Bonds Ultimately Follow Oil's Lead, Heading Lower War-Related Optimism
While there were no incredibly memorable sound bytes on the Iran war today, there were a few headlines that proved to be actionable for financial markets. The most actionable (by a wide margin) was a report on Fox News around 10am quoting a senior admin official as saying "a lot is happening today and tomorrow. We have all the ingredients of a deal, but it's not all there yet." This was paraphrased by Fox as "Senior Trump Admin. Official: Strong Indicators Toward Reaching Agreement With Iran." Oil and bond yields dropped on the news and both moves continued into the afternoon. Stocks rallied and have now essentially fully recovered the war-related losses.
No real reaction to PPI data despite being much lower than expected. MBS unchanged on the day and 10yr up less than half a bp at 4.293
Best levels of the day with MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.277
Best levels. MBS up nearly a quarter point and 10yr down 3.4bps at 4.255
Bonds Follow Oil's Lead, Heading Lower on War-Related Optimism
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Apr 14 | |||||
| 6:00AM | Mar NFIB Business Optimism Index | Mar | 95.8 | 98.6 | 98.8 |
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 39K | 26K | ||
| 8:30AM | Mar PPI y/y | Mar | 4% | 4.6% | 3.4% |
| 8:30AM | Mar PPI m/m (%) | Mar | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| 8:30AM | Mar Core PPI y/y (%) | Mar | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.9% |
| 8:30AM | Mar Core PPI m/m (%) | Mar | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 11:30AM | 6-Week Bill Auction (%) | 3.630% | 3.615% | ||
| 12:15PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 12:45PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | Fed Collins Speech | ||||
| Wednesday, Apr 15 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Apr/10 MBA Refi Index | Apr/10 | 919.9 | ||
| 7:00AM | Apr/10 MBA Purchase Index | Apr/10 | 161.1 | ||
| 7:00AM | Apr/10 Mortgage Market Index | Apr/10 | 276.0 | ||
| 8:30AM | Apr NY Fed Manufacturing | Apr | -0.5 | -0.20 | |
| 8:30AM | Mar Import prices mm (%) | Mar | 2% | 1.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Apr NAHB housing market indx | Apr | 37 | 38 | |
| 10:30AM | Apr/10 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Apr/10 | 3.081M | ||
| 12:00PM | NOPA Crush Report (%) | ||||
| 1:45PM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Fed Beige Book | ||||
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