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Uncanny Calm Unlikely to Last
Uncanny Calm Unlikely to Last
For the third straight day, the bond market traded in a range that was significantly more narrow than almost any other day in more than a month. By the time we consider the overall range of the past 3 days, there aren't many comparable examples. The closest candidates tend to fall at the end of the month and to be followed by a quick return to prevailing patterns of volume and volatility.
Flat start despite some back and forth overnight. Slightly weaker after data, but not necessarily because of it. 10y up 2.3bps at 3.589. MBS down an eighth.
Sideways to slightly stronger. 10yr down 1.5bps at 3.551. MBS up 1 tick (0.03).
modest additional gains in Treasuries heading into the afternoon. 10yr down 2bps at 3.547. MBS still flat at same levels as the last update.
Uncanny Calm Unlikely to Last.mp4
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Mar 30 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Q4 GDP Final (%) | Q4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| 8:30AM | w/e Jobless Claims (k) | w/e | 198 | 196 | 191 |
| 8:30AM | w/e Jobless claims 4-wk avg (k) | w/e | 198.25 | 196.25 | |
| 8:30AM | w/e Continued Claims (ml) | w/e | 1.689 | 1.697 | 1.694 |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP Prelim (%) | Q1 | 2.9 | 2.9 | |
| 10:30AM | w/e Nat gas-EIA, change bcf | w/e | -47 | -54 | -72 |
| Friday, Mar 31 | |||||
| 8:00AM | Feb Dallas Fed PCE (%) | Feb | 6.3 | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb Personal Income (%) | Feb | 0.2 | 0.6 | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | Feb | 1.1 | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb PCE price index mm (%) | Feb | 0.6 | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb Outlays (consumer spending) (%) | Feb | 0.3 | 1.8 | |
| 8:30AM | Feb PCE (y/y) (%) | Feb | 5.4 | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Feb | 0.4 | 0.6 | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Feb | 4.7 | 4.7 | |
| 9:45AM | Mar Chicago PMI | Mar | 43.4 | 43.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Mar Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Mar | 3.8 | ||
| 10:00AM | Mar Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Mar | 2.8 | ||
| 10:00AM | Mar Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Mar | 63.2 | 63.4 | |
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