Just as Underwhelming as Expected
Just as Underwhelming as Expected
No sense in trying to manufacture excitement out of something boring. Even before Fed speakers went into the customary blackout period 12 days ago, it was already abundantly clear that they were all on the same page--a page of uncertainty in an uncertain chapter of an uncertain book. Nothing had changed in the past 12 days that would allow the Fed or Powell to be any less uncertain about which of the two competing forces on rates would win out in the coming weeks/months. As such, there was nothing Powell could do but reiterate that fact 17 times for the 17 different versions of the same question. It's no surprise bonds are heading out the door precisely in line with pre-Fed levels.
Slightly stronger after AM data, but still weaker on the day. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.283
Just as Underwhelming as Expected
Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Thursday, May 08 | |||||
8:30AM | Apr/26 Continued Claims (ml) | Apr/26 | 1879.0K | 1890K | 1916K |
8:30AM | Q1 Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final | Q1 | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
8:30AM | May/03 Jobless Claims (k) | May/03 | 228K | 230K | 241K |
10:00AM | Mar Wholesale inventories mm (%) | Mar | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
11:00AM | Apr Consumer Inflation Expectations | Apr | 3.6% | ||
1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.813% | |||
1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 25 | |||
Friday, May 09 | |||||
6:15AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
6:45AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
8:30AM | Fed Kugler Speech | ||||
10:00AM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
11:30AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
11:30AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
7:45PM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
7:45PM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
7:45PM | Fed Cook Speech |