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Straightforward Data-Driven Rally
Straightforward Data-Driven Rally
It proved to be an incredibly straightforward day for the bond market. Trading levels were roughly unchanged in early trading. Friendly Fed comments provided a modest boost, but it was the JOLTS data that clearly set the tone. With job openings hitting the lowest levels since late 2020, traders were quick to hit the buy button. Keep in mind, this is July data whereas Friday's jobs report will be August data. Nonetheless, it was an extra measure of labor market weakness that helped confirm last month's lackluster jobs report. If Thursday's data is similarly downbeat, we could see more of a pre-NFP lead-off with yields challenging the recent range floor.
Straightforward Data-Driven Rally
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Sep 04 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Aug Challenger layoffs (k) | Aug | 62.075K | ||
| 8:15AM | Aug ADP jobs (k) | Aug | 65K | 104K | |
| 8:30AM | Jul Trade Gap (bl) | Jul | $-75.7B | $-60.2B | |
| 8:30AM | Aug/23 Continued Claims (k) | Aug/23 | 1960K | 1954K | |
| 8:30AM | Aug/30 Jobless Claims (k) | Aug/30 | 230K | 229K | |
| 9:45AM | Aug S&P Global Services PMI | Aug | 55.4 | 55.7 | |
| 9:45AM | Aug S&P Global Composite PMI | Aug | 55.4 | 55.1 | |
| 10:00AM | Aug ISM Services Employment | Aug | 46.4 | ||
| 10:00AM | Aug ISM Biz Activity | Aug | 53 | 52.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Aug ISM Services New Orders | Aug | 50.3 | ||
| 10:00AM | Aug ISM Services Prices | Aug | 69.9 | ||
| 10:00AM | Aug ISM N-Mfg PMI | Aug | 51 | 50.1 | |
| 12:00PM | Aug/29 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Aug/29 | -3.4M | -2.392M | |
| 12:05PM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 7:00PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| Friday, Sep 05 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Aug Participation Rate | Aug | 62.2% | ||
| 8:30AM | Aug Average earnings mm (%) | Aug | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Unemployment rate mm (%) | Aug | 4.3% | 4.2% | |
| 8:30AM | Aug Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Aug | 75K | 73K | |
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