Sr Mortgage Loan Officer
The Frio Team Powered by Peoples Bank & Trust
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246527

Just as Underwhelming as Expected

Just as Underwhelming as Expected

No sense in trying to manufacture excitement out of something boring. Even before Fed speakers went into the customary blackout period 12 days ago, it was already abundantly clear that they were all on the same page--a page of uncertainty in an uncertain chapter of an uncertain book.  Nothing had changed in the past 12 days that would allow the Fed or Powell to be any less uncertain about which of the two competing forces on rates would win out in the coming weeks/months.  As such, there was nothing Powell could do but reiterate that fact 17 times for the 17 different versions of the same question. It's no surprise bonds are heading out the door precisely in line with pre-Fed levels.

Market Movement Recap
09:16 AM

Slightly stronger after AM data, but still weaker on the day.  MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.283

Latest Video Analysis

Just as Underwhelming as Expected

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 99.51 -0.04 10YR 4.289% +0.019% 5/8/2025 9:38AM EST
It's hard to say exactly which comment did the trick, but it was probably this one:  Fed's Powell: We won't make progress on goals this year if tariffs stay or this one (in response to whether the Fed would cut rates at all this year): Powell: There are cases where it would make sense and cases where it wouldn't. Bonds are still stronger, but losing some ground.  10yr down just under 1bp at 4.29, but up from lows of 4.26. MBS are still up an eighth of...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.86% -0.02% 15YR Fixed 6.19% -0.02% 5/7/2025
There's nothing like a Fed announcement day to get almost every media outlet to run headlines that attempt to tie the day's market movement to the Fed's rate decision. The problem in today's case is that there wasn't even anything remotely resembling a decision, nor did anyone expect there to be. Markets were effectively betting on a zero percent chance of a rate cut at this meeting, and that's been the case for several weeks. Fed speakers had also been very clear in their ...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, May 08
8:30AM Apr/26 Continued Claims (ml) Apr/26 1879.0K 1890K 1916K
8:30AM Q1 Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final Q1 5.7% 5.1% 2.2%
8:30AM May/03 Jobless Claims (k) May/03 228K 230K 241K
10:00AM Mar Wholesale inventories mm (%) Mar 0.5% 0.5%
11:00AM Apr Consumer Inflation Expectations Apr 3.6%
1:00PM 30-Year Bond Auction 4.813%
1:00PM 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 25
Friday, May 09
6:15AM Fed Williams Speech
6:45AM Fed Barr Speech
8:30AM Fed Kugler Speech
10:00AM Fed Goolsbee Speech
11:30AM Fed Williams Speech
11:30AM Fed Waller Speech
7:45PM Fed Hammack Speech
7:45PM Fed Musalem Speech
7:45PM Fed Cook Speech
Read My Latest Newsletter
Whether you refer to it as "strong," or "not as bad as feared," this week's economic reports were better than the market was prepared for. The result is moderately higher rates. Interest rates are driven by movement in the bond market, and the bond market is always interested in economic data. Occasionally, the economic data can be boring enough or other events can be important enough to cause ... READ MORE
Sr Mortgage Loan Officer
The Frio Team Powered by Peoples Bank & Trust
License:
246527