Sr Mortgage Loan Officer
The Frio Team Powered by Peoples Bank & Trust
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Correction Continues Despite Tariff Announcements

Correction Continues Despite Tariff Announcements

Bonds were moderately weaker to start the day and continued losing ground in the AM hours.  Just after noon, new tariff announcements caused a surge of selling in stocks. There was initially some buying in bonds, but not much, and not for long. Tariffs are a double-edge sword for bonds, as we've seen on several occasions over the past few months and today's version was well balanced, ultimately leaving 10yr yields at similar levels before and after the news. Today's weakness adds to the multi-day correction that began last Wednesday and accelerated after Thursday's jobs report. Bond buyers may remain hesitant until getting through more of this week's Treasury auction cycle.

Market Movement Recap
09:57 AM

Modestly weaker overnight with MBS down less than an eighth and 10yr up 2bps at 4.367

11:09 AM

Steady weakness continues.  MBS now down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 3.4bps at 4.38

02:16 PM

Holding sideways near weakest levels in the PM hours.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.6bps at 4.392

04:03 PM

Still sideways near weakest levels.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 4bps at 4.387

Latest Video Analysis

Correction Continues Despite Tariff Announcements

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 99.48 -0.16 10YR 4.381% +0.035% 7/7/2025 5:59PM EST
Fresh off the rally reversal courtesy of last week's jobs report, the bond market now finds itself in a virtually data-free week with little else to inspire big departures from prevailing levels. From last Thursday's early close, there's been remarkably little movement so far.  This is all the more notable given the fact that Thursday was the heaviest day of selling in several weeks, arguably ending the rally trend from the 2nd half of June. It's always possible that une...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.79% +0.04% 15YR Fixed 5.99% +0.01% 7/7/2025
For the entire 2nd half of June, it was easy to be spoiled by the absence of volatility in mortgage rates . During that time, rates were either lower or unchanged every single day. The past few business days have been a different story. This began last Wednesday as the bond market began a small correction ahead of Thursday's big jobs report.  A correction is a normal occurrence that often follows an extended run in either direction. They can be as short as a single da...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Jul 07
Tuesday, Jul 08
6:00AM Jun NFIB Business Optimism Index Jun 98.7 98.8
11:00AM Jun Consumer Inflation Expectations Jun 3.2%
1:00PM 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) 58
3:00PM May Consumer credit (bl) May $10.5B $17.87B
Read My Latest Newsletter
After a few good weeks for interest rates, things hit a bit of a speed bump this week thanks to a stronger-than-expected jobs report. The week started quietly. There was no important economic news on Monday, but behind the scenes, there was still plenty going on. Big financial firms often need to “rebalance” their investments at the end of a month or quarter—especially if stoc... READ MORE
Sr Mortgage Loan Officer
The Frio Team Powered by Peoples Bank & Trust
License:
246527