Luxury Real Estate Professional
Gina Mancuso Luxury Real Estate
License:
02146794

Sideways Overall Despite Hawkish Fed Speakers

Sideways Overall Despite Hawkish Fed Speakers

Although there was some mid-day volatility (early buying followed by slower selling back to roughly unchanged territory), that movement was more in line with month-end tradeflows than any interesting, specific motivations. Nonetheless, there were interesting, specific developments in the form of several comments from several Fed speakers.  Rather than display a balanced mix of differing viewpoints, today's crop of comments was distinctly hawkish across the board. Logan said she would have preferred to hold rates steady this week and can't see a case for a December cut.  Hammack said it's not clear what the right answer is for rates, but that it's important to stay restrictive. Bostic said he was glad Powell said a December cut is far from a foregone conclusion.  And Schmid said he dissented in this week's vote due to economic momentum and inflation concerns. While bonds didn't react to this today, the lopsided hawkishness makes for an interesting 6 weeks of data-watching ahead of the next Fed meeting and dot plot.

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Sideways Overall Despite Hawkish Fed Speakers

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 99.55 0.00 10YR 4.074% -0.021% 10/31/2025 5:00PM EST
MBS are now back to unchanged on the day and down 6 ticks (.19) from the AM highs.  Because those highs coincide with most lenders' rate sheet print times, negative reprices are becoming a stronger possibility apart from just the "jumpy" lenders.   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.28% -0.05% 15YR Fixed 5.81% -0.04% 10/31/2025
After hitting the highest level in several weeks on Thursday, mortgage rates managed to move moderately lower on Friday. Counterpoint: Friday's rates are still the 2nd highest of the past 2 weeks and still meaningfully higher than last Friday's (6.28% vs 6.19% in terms of MND's rate index). The improvement makes it clear that lenders were setting rates defensively on Thursday. We know this because the level of improvement in rates is greater than that suggested by the und...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Oct 31
8:30AM Q3 Employment costs (on hold due to shutdown) (%) Q3 0.9% 0.9%
9:30AM Fed Logan Speech
9:45AM Oct Chicago PMI Oct 43.8 42.3 40.6
12:00PM Fed Bostic Speech
12:00PM Fed Hammack Speech
Monday, Nov 03
9:45AM Oct S&P Global Manuf. PMI Oct 52.2 52.0
10:00AM Aug Construction spending (%) Aug -0.1% -0.1%
10:00AM Oct ISM Manufacturing Employment Oct 45.3
10:00AM Oct ISM Mfg Prices Paid Oct 62.6 61.9
10:00AM Oct Total Vehicle Sales (ml) Oct 15.6M 16.4M
10:00AM Oct ISM Manufacturing PMI Oct 49.2 49.1
10:00AM Sep Construction spending (%) Sep
12:00PM Fed Daly Speech
2:00PM Fed Cook Speech
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Not all rates are created equal and not all rates move in the same direction for the same reasons. One of the most common reasons for rates moving in opposite directions is that the underlying bonds, loans, etc. have different terms. In other words, market demand for a 7-year loan can be quite different from a 1-day loan , depending on the day. While a typical mortgage may be ABLE to last ... READ MORE
Luxury Real Estate Professional
Gina Mancuso Luxury Real Estate
License:
02146794