|
|
|
Frustratingly Flat After Deceptively Friendly Jobs Report
Frustratingly Flat After Deceptively Friendly Jobs Report
If there was one metric in this morning's data that should be helping the bond market, it's the uptick in the unemployment rate from 4.4% in September to 4.6% in November (a new cycle high). This is mitigated somewhat by the uptick in participation rate (0.1%) and the slightly higher payroll count (64k vs 50k f'cast). In addition, BLS noted lower response rates for the household survey (unemployment rate) and a generally unknown impact from the government shutdown. Perhaps important is the fact that the unrounded unemployment rate only rose 0.13% versus the 0.2% rounded figure. Bond market volume has been predictably stratospheric, but the movement has been frustratingly flat. All in all, the jobs data simply confirms exactly what the Fed has been saying: modest ongoing weakness in labor market, but nothing catastrophic. It leaves room to focus on Thursday's CPI as policy-setting counterpoint.
Modestly stronger after jobs report. MBS up almost an eighth and 10yr down 1.1bps at 4.165
Paradoxically modestly weaker now with MBS unchanged and 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.191
Back near best levels of the day. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 2.1bps at 4.156
Fairly Calm Monday. Jobs Report on Deck
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Dec 16 | |||||
| 8:15AM | ADP Employment Change Weekly | 16.25K | 4.75K | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov Participation Rate | Nov | 62.5% | 62.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Oct Average earnings mm (%) | Oct | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Nov Average earnings mm (%) | Nov | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Oct Retail Sales (%) | Oct | 0% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Oct Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Oct | 0.8% | 0.4% | -0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Oct Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Oct | -105K | 51K | 119K |
| 8:30AM | Nov Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Nov | 64K | 50K | -105K |
| 8:30AM | Nov Unemployment rate mm (%) | Nov | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| 9:45AM | Dec S&P Global Composite PMI | Dec | 53.0 | 54.2 | |
| 9:45AM | Dec S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Dec | 51.8 | 52 | 52.2 |
| 9:45AM | Dec S&P Global Services PMI | Dec | 52.9 | 54 | 54.1 |
| 10:00AM | Sep Business Inventories (% ) | Sep | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0% |
| 7:00PM | International Monetary Market (IMM) Date (%) | ||||
| Wednesday, Dec 17 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Dec/12 MBA Purchase Index | Dec/12 | 181.6 | ||
| 7:00AM | Dec/12 MBA Refi Index | Dec/12 | 1190.6 | ||
| 7:00AM | Dec/12 Mortgage Market Index | Dec/12 | 327.9 | ||
| 8:15AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Nov Retail Sales (%) | Nov | 0% | ||
| 8:30AM | Nov Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Nov | |||
| 9:05AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Oct Business Inventories (% ) | Oct | 0.2% | ||
| 10:30AM | Dec/12 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Dec/12 | -1.812M | ||
| 12:30PM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 13 | |||
|
|
|
|