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Data Helped, But Wild Cards Remain on Deck
Data Helped, But Wild Cards Remain on Deck
This morning's economic data wasn't immediately and obviously worthy of credit for the bond rally that followed, largely because the bond rally that followed was fairly small. Most of the day's gains were in place beforehand. The data (lower ISM/employment, job openings, and job quits) helped keep bonds near the stronger end of the day's range, and thus, the stronger end of the 5 week range. There's more data on Wednesday, but the biggest wild card may be the long-awaited tariff announcement in the afternoon.
Stronger overnight and at best levels after 10am data. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 5.1bps at 4.154
Sideways and slightly choppy all morning. MBS still up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 4.6bps at 4.161
Still flat. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 4.1bps at 4.165.
Data Helped, But Wild Cards Remain on Deck
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Apr 01 | |||||
| 8:55AM | Mar/29 Redbook yy (%) | Mar/29 | 4.8% | 5.6% | |
| 9:45AM | Mar S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Mar | 50.2 | 49.8 | 52.7 |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Manufacturing New Orders | Mar | 45.2 | 48.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Mar | 69.4 | 65 | 62.4 |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Manufacturing Employment | Mar | 44.7 | 47.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb USA JOLTS Job Openings | Feb | 7.568M | 7.63M | 7.74M |
| 10:00AM | Feb JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Feb | 3.195M | 3.266M | |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI | Mar | 49 | 49.5 | 50.3 |
| 10:00AM | Feb Construction spending (%) | Feb | 0.7% | 0.3% | -0.2% |
| 10:30AM | Mar Dallas Fed Services Index | Mar | -11.3 | 4.6 | |
| 10:30AM | Mar Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index | Mar | 1.3 | 8.2 | |
| 10:40AM | Apr IBD economic optimism | Apr | 49.1 | 50.1 | 49.8 |
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 50 | |||
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 4:30PM | Mar/28 API weekly crude stocks (ml) | Mar/28 | +6.037M | -4.6M | |
| Wednesday, Apr 02 | |||||
| 6:00AM | Mar LMI Logistics Managers Index Current | Mar | 62.8 | ||
| 7:00AM | Mar/28 MBA Mortgage Applications | Mar/28 | -2% | ||
| 7:00AM | Mar/28 MBA Refi Index | Mar/28 | 752.4 | ||
| 7:00AM | Mar/28 MBA Purchase Index | Mar/28 | 155.8 | ||
| 7:00AM | Mar/28 Mortgage Market Index | Mar/28 | 247.5 | ||
| 7:00AM | Mar/28 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) | Mar/28 | 6.71% | ||
| 8:15AM | Mar ADP jobs (k) | Mar | 105K | 77K | |
| 10:00AM | Feb Factory ex-transp mm (% ) | Feb | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 10:00AM | Feb Factory orders mm (%) | Feb | 0.5% | 1.7% | |
| 10:00AM | Mar Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Mar | 15.9M | 16.0M | |
| 10:30AM | Mar/28 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | Mar/28 | 0.087M | ||
| 10:30AM | Mar/28 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | Mar/28 | -0.100M | ||
| 10:30AM | Mar/28 EIA Distillate Stocks Change | Mar/28 | -0.421M | ||
| 10:30AM | Mar/28 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | Mar/28 | -0.755M | ||
| 10:30AM | Mar/28 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Mar/28 | -3.341M | ||
| 10:30AM | Mar/28 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | Mar/28 | 0.845M | ||
| 10:30AM | Mar/28 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | Mar/28 | -0.035M | ||
| 10:30AM | Mar/28 EIA Gasoline Production Change | Mar/28 | -0.401M | ||
| 10:30AM | Mar/28 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | Mar/28 | -1.446M | ||
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction | 4.200% | |||
| 3:00PM | Reciprocal Tariff Plan Announcement (%) | ||||
| 4:30PM | Fed Kugler Speech | ||||
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