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Surprisingly Big Bond Rally Relative to The Data
Surprisingly Big Bond Rally Relative to The Data
Bonds went on a bit of a buying spree on Thursday. It was the biggest rally day since November, at least, and that's impressive given the motivations. Specifically, there was a trifecta of downbeat labor market reports (Challenger, Jobless Claims, and Job Openings). Individually, none of these are worth a third of the move we saw today, but the whole was greater than the sum of its parts. There's also a 4th report being traded today: next week's big jobs report. In other words, between yesterday's ISM employment numbers and today's reports, traders are taking a cautious lead-off ahead of the big jobs report. This raises the stakes for volatility next Wednesday morning.
Secret Econ Data Adding to The Rally
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Feb 06 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Feb Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Feb | 4% | ||
| 10:00AM | Feb U Mich conditions | Feb | 54.9 | 55.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Feb | 3.3% | ||
| 10:00AM | Feb Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Feb | 55 | 56.4 | |
| 12:00PM | Fed Jefferson Speech | ||||
| 3:00PM | Dec Consumer credit (bl) | Dec | $8B | $4.23B | |
| Monday, Feb 09 | |||||
| 11:00AM | Jan Consumer Inflation Expectations | Jan | 3.4% | ||
| 3:15PM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
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