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Stronger Start Thanks to Europe and ADP
Stronger Start Thanks to Europe and ADP
Bonds rallied steadily overnight with more of the gains aligning with a data-driven bond rally in Europe. The overnight move brought 10yr yields roughly 2bps lower from yesterday's close. Another 2bps of improvement followed this morning's ADP employment data. ADP's job count wasn't particularly far below forecasts (41k vs 47k), but the previous month wasn't revised much higher (-29k vs -32k initially). At 10am ET, we'll get Job Openings and ISM Non-Manufacturing--a combo that is arguably heavier hitting than ADP, if the results are not right in line with forecasts.
Steadily stronger overnight and slightly stronger after ADP. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 4.2bps at 4.123
Losing ground after 10am data. MBS back to unchanged and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.152
Recovering a bit into mid-day. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.8bps at 4.138
Flat Ending After Early Head Fake
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jan 07 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Dec/26 Mortgage Market Index | Dec/26 | 269.9 | 299.8 | |
| 7:00AM | Dec/26 MBA Purchase Index | Dec/26 | 169.8 | 169.9 | |
| 7:00AM | Dec/26 MBA Refi Index | Dec/26 | 872.1 | 1084.3 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/02 MBA Refi Index | Jan/02 | 937 | 872.1 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/02 MBA Purchase Index | Jan/02 | 159.3 | 169.8 | |
| 7:00AM | Jan/02 Mortgage Market Index | Jan/02 | 270.8 | 269.9 | |
| 8:15AM | Dec ADP jobs (k) | Dec | 41K | 47K | -32K |
| 10:00AM | Oct Factory orders mm (%) | Oct | -1.3% | -1.2% | 0.2% |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Biz Activity | Dec | 56.0 | 54.5 | |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Services Prices | Dec | 64.3 | 65.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Services New Orders | Dec | 57.9 | 52.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM Services Employment | Dec | 52.0 | 48.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Nov JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Nov | 3.161M | 2.941M | |
| 10:00AM | Nov USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) | Nov | 7.146M | 7.60M | 7.670M |
| 10:00AM | Dec ISM N-Mfg PMI | Dec | 54.4 | 52.3 | 52.6 |
| 10:30AM | Jan/02 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jan/02 | -3.831M | 1.1M | -1.934M |
| Thursday, Jan 08 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Dec Challenger layoffs (k) | Dec | 71.321K | ||
| 8:30AM | Oct Trade Gap (bl) | Oct | $-58.9B | $-52.8B | |
| 8:30AM | Jan/03 Jobless Claims (k) | Jan/03 | 210K | 199K | |
| 8:30AM | Dec/27 Continued Claims (k) | Dec/27 | 1900K | 1866K | |
| 9:20AM | NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months (%) | $8.165 million | |||
| 11:00AM | Dec Consumer Inflation Expectations | Dec | 3.2% | ||
| 3:00PM | Nov Consumer credit (bl) | Nov | $10B | $9.18B | |
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