• Jobless Claims
  • 216k vs 230k f'cast, 228k prev
• Continued Claims
  • 1862k vs 1890k f'cast
• Core PCE Prices M/M
  • 0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.1 prev
• Core PCE Y/Y
  • 2.7 vs 2.6 f'cast, 2.7 prev

Jobless claims have now returned back under the non-seasonally adjusted levels for the same weeks of the year in 2023 and 2019.  This means there are no signs of a departure from the recent historical trend other than those created by weather-related distortions in the past 3 weeks.

The modest uptick in core inflation isn't a huge surprise in light of the clues seen in yesterday's quarterly PCE numbers.  Perhaps that's why the bond market isn't experiencing a major sell off.  In fact, bonds haven't moved much at all following the data.  10yr yields are still down 1bp at 4.285 and MBS are up 2 ticks (0.06).