Small Scale Volatility as Bonds Wait For Jobs Report
Mon, Jan 6 2025, 4:12 PM
MBS Recap
Small Scale Volatility as Bonds Wait For Jobs Report
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:11 PM
Small Scale Volatility as Bonds Wait For Jobs Report
Bonds lost ground this morning despite a weaker S&P PMI headline. While there were some mitigating factors beyond the headline, we could just as easily conclude that traders are erring on the side of caution heading into a week of Treasury auction supply with another big jobs report on Friday--all while being forced to wait an unknown amount of time to find out where the rubber meets the road on fiscal policies that could further affect the outlook for the economy, inflation, and Treasury issuance. All told, today's volatility was mild at best and we didn't learn anything new about the bigger picture.
Slightly stronger overnight but backtracking in first 2 hours. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.4bps at 4.622
10:37 AM
Weakest levels. MBS down more than a quarter from highs and 5 ticks (.16) on the day. 10yr up 3.8bps at 4.636
02:04 PM
modest recovery into the noon hour, but falling a bit since then. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.9bps at 4.627
04:11 PM
Calming down in after hours trading. MBS down only 1 tick (.03) and 10yr yields up 1.2bps at 4.61.
Lock / Float Considerations
Rates continue muddling along at or near longer-term highs following the December 18th Fed announcement. There haven't been any glorious recoveries since then. If we hope to see one, it would depend on big ticket econ data like the jobs report or CPI (Jan 10th and 15th respectively).
