Bonds began the day in stronger territory as investors reacted to weekend tariff news with a risk-off move. Stocks bounced shortly after the NYSE open and bond yields were pulled higher in concert. That prevailing correlation broke down around 3pm due to month/quarter end bond buying (3pm is the official close for bonds, even though trading continues until 5pm). There was no major reaction to econ data or Fed speakers today. The data becomes more relevant in the coming days.
Stronger overnight as stocks continue tanking. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.7bps at 4.208
11:30 AM
Weakest levels of the day. MBS nearly unchanged and 10yr still down 1.3bps at 4.223
03:10 PM
Some month/quarter end buying at 3pm helping a modest recovery. 10yr down 0.3bps at 4.232. MBS unchanged.
Lock / Float Considerations
Due to potential distortions from month/quarter-end trading, the momentum that we're seeing at the end of March shouldn't be taken as a sign of things to come in early April. If the resilience is to continue, it would require support from weaker economic data.
