Bonds started weaker, flipped stronger mid-day, and then slowly moved back to unchanged levels by the close. Most of the day's volatility surrounded comments from a Swiss finance minister on this weekend's US/China trade talks (in Switzerland). The movement was very small in the bigger picture, possibly reflecting the very low odds for any sort of trade resolution like yesterday's UK/US deal. Still, over the weekend headlines may provide hints as to where the discussions are headed, and that could be worth some volatility as the coming week begins. A day later, CPI will provide the first big-picture assessment of April's inflation (still exceptionally early when it comes to potential tariff-related impacts, but not too early to see some impact).
Modestly weaker overnight, but moving back into positive territory now. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.8bps at 4.359
01:14 PM
Mostly flat all morning. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.365
04:49 PM
Heading out near weakest levels with MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr yields up 0.7bps at 4.384
Lock / Float Considerations
While the average mortgage lender isn't any worse off than they were earlier this week, the pace of Thursday's movement reintroduces the volatility risk surrounding trade-related headlines. From an econ data standpoint, Tuesday's CPI remains the focus, but random volatility risk is now substantially higher with US/China talks taking place over the weekend.
