Gentle Rally Gently Reverses After Trade Headlines
Mon, Jun 9 2025, 3:56 PM
MBS Recap
Gentle Rally Gently Reverses After Trade Headlines
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 3:55 PM
Gentle Rally Gently Reverses After Trade Headlines
First thing's first: bonds closed in stronger territory and retained most of the gains that were present in the AM hours. But they would have done just a bit better if not for a handful of newswires that hit around 2:30pm ET regarding vaguely positive comments on US/China trade talks (i.e. BESSENT ON US-CHINA TALKS: 'GOOD MEETING'). This preceded a move up to 4.487 from 4.470 in 10yr yields--barely worth mentioning in the bigger picture, and only mentioned here to reinforce the market's willingness to react to trade-related headlines and because US/China talks will be continuing on Tuesday.
Sideways overnight and inching into positive territory after 9:30am NYSE open. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1.3bps
Lock / Float Considerations
Friday's jobs report reset the board to some extent when it comes to short term lock/float considerations. There was asymmetric risk up until then, and more balanced risk moving forward. The upcoming data is not as meaty, so we could see more of a willingness to react to fiscal headlines.
Slow, steady gains so far. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 3.3bps at 4.475
Weaker since 2:30pm, but still stronger on the day. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 2.1bps at 4.487
