Bonds Brace For Stormier Weather After This Week's Smooth Sailing
Fri, Jul 25 2025, 4:48 PM
MBS Recap
Bonds Brace For Stormier Weather After This Week's Smooth Sailing
MBS Recap Matthew Graham | 4:47 PM
Bonds Brace For Stormier Weather After This Week's Smooth Sailing
Despite a few inconsequential ups and downs, bonds ultimately traded with forgettable, sideways momentum this week. Friday did nothing to change that--especially after mid-day gains courtesy of optimism surrounding over-the-weekend trade talks between the U.S. and the EU. The gains corresponded with the news headlines about the U.S./EU meeting and bonds held steadily sideways after that. The incoming week is completely different in terms of calendar-based volatility potential. There are relevant events on every single day culminating with "peak relevance" in the form of Friday's big jobs report.
Moderately weaker overnight and sideways to slightly stronger in the first few hours. MBS only down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.1bps at 4.409
01:31 PM
Solid gains starting just after noon E.T. on US/EU trade talks set for Sunday. MBS now unchanged and 10yr down 1.4bps at 4.383
04:34 PM
Mostly holding gains into the close. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.1bps at 4.387
Lock / Float Considerations
Inconsequential range trade ahead of the upcoming week that's chock full of big ticket events and potential market movers. From a lock/float risk/reward standpoint, that's really when things get interesting. Monday is the lightest in terms of scheduled events. Friday carries the biggest risks (jobs report).
